SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1205 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated weak thunderstorm activity is possible Friday afternoon into Friday night across parts of central Texas. ...Synopsis... An upper low and attendant shortwave trough off the southern CA/northern Baja coasts Friday morning will develop east toward northwest Mexico and lower CO Valley by Saturday morning. As this occurs, increasing midlevel moisture will spread northeast across the southern Plains as an arctic cold front dives southward across OK/TX. As forcing for ascent increases Friday afternoon into the overnight hours, mainly wintry precipitation is expected across OK and the northern half of TX. Near and to the south of the arctic cold front, sufficient low-level moisture will be in place to support modest instability, especially as midlevel temperatures cool. This could result in isolated thunderstorms near the southward-surging cold front, or within the transition zone just to the cool side of the boundary where sleet and freezing rain are possible. ..Leitman.. 01/22/2026 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1205 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated weak thunderstorm activity is possible Friday afternoon into Friday night across parts of central Texas. ...Synopsis... An upper low and attendant shortwave trough off the southern CA/northern Baja coasts Friday morning will develop east toward northwest Mexico and lower CO Valley by Saturday morning. As this occurs, increasing midlevel moisture will spread northeast across the southern Plains as an arctic cold front dives southward across OK/TX. As forcing for ascent increases Friday afternoon into the overnight hours, mainly wintry precipitation is expected across OK and the northern half of TX. Near and to the south of the arctic cold front, sufficient low-level moisture will be in place to support modest instability, especially as midlevel temperatures cool. This could result in isolated thunderstorms near the southward-surging cold front, or within the transition zone just to the cool side of the boundary where sleet and freezing rain are possible. ..Leitman.. 01/22/2026 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An arctic air mass will infiltrate the CONUS, precluding fire-weather concerns. ..Weinman.. 01/22/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An arctic air mass will infiltrate the CONUS, precluding fire-weather concerns. ..Weinman.. 01/22/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An arctic air mass will infiltrate the CONUS, precluding fire-weather concerns. ..Weinman.. 01/22/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An arctic air mass will begin to overspread the Great Plains and Midwest, reducing fire-weather concerns across much of the CONUS. Farther south, downslope flow off the southern Rockies and lee troughing over the High Plains will contribute to locally dry/breezy conditions across parts of southern CO and NM during the afternoon. However, fire-weather concerns will generally be limited, given both marginal wind/RH and fuels. ..Weinman.. 01/22/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An arctic air mass will begin to overspread the Great Plains and Midwest, reducing fire-weather concerns across much of the CONUS. Farther south, downslope flow off the southern Rockies and lee troughing over the High Plains will contribute to locally dry/breezy conditions across parts of southern CO and NM during the afternoon. However, fire-weather concerns will generally be limited, given both marginal wind/RH and fuels. ..Weinman.. 01/22/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An arctic air mass will begin to overspread the Great Plains and Midwest, reducing fire-weather concerns across much of the CONUS. Farther south, downslope flow off the southern Rockies and lee troughing over the High Plains will contribute to locally dry/breezy conditions across parts of southern CO and NM during the afternoon. However, fire-weather concerns will generally be limited, given both marginal wind/RH and fuels. ..Weinman.. 01/22/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms will be possible across southeast Florida on Thursday, however, severe weather is not expected. ... Synopsis ... A strong mid-level short-wave trough originating across the Canadian Prairies will dig southeast toward the US Great Lakes on Thursday. This will maintain broadly cyclonic flow across much of the United States. In the wake of this trough, increasingly confluent mid-level flow will maintain a strong arctic surface high as it begins to move south into the Plains. ... Southeast Florida ... Modest convergence along a remnant surface boundary may realize a weakly unstable environment to support showers and perhaps a few weak thunderstorms. Although the bulk of the activity should remain offshore in the Atlantic, a couple of lightning strikes will be possible across portions of far southeast Florida. ... Southern California ... A vigorous closed low over the eastern Pacific will continue to dig southeast, just off the California coast. The combination of modest large-scale ascent downstream of the nose of a cyclonically curved mid-level jet, cold mid-level temperatures, and onshore flow may support a couple of lightning strikes within any orographically enhanced shower. However confidence in this potential remains too low to warrant graphical depiction at this time. ..Marsh/Weinman.. 01/22/2026 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms will be possible across southeast Florida on Thursday, however, severe weather is not expected. ... Synopsis ... A strong mid-level short-wave trough originating across the Canadian Prairies will dig southeast toward the US Great Lakes on Thursday. This will maintain broadly cyclonic flow across much of the United States. In the wake of this trough, increasingly confluent mid-level flow will maintain a strong arctic surface high as it begins to move south into the Plains. ... Southeast Florida ... Modest convergence along a remnant surface boundary may realize a weakly unstable environment to support showers and perhaps a few weak thunderstorms. Although the bulk of the activity should remain offshore in the Atlantic, a couple of lightning strikes will be possible across portions of far southeast Florida. ... Southern California ... A vigorous closed low over the eastern Pacific will continue to dig southeast, just off the California coast. The combination of modest large-scale ascent downstream of the nose of a cyclonically curved mid-level jet, cold mid-level temperatures, and onshore flow may support a couple of lightning strikes within any orographically enhanced shower. However confidence in this potential remains too low to warrant graphical depiction at this time. ..Marsh/Weinman.. 01/22/2026 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms will be possible across southeast Florida on Thursday, however, severe weather is not expected. ... Synopsis ... A strong mid-level short-wave trough originating across the Canadian Prairies will dig southeast toward the US Great Lakes on Thursday. This will maintain broadly cyclonic flow across much of the United States. In the wake of this trough, increasingly confluent mid-level flow will maintain a strong arctic surface high as it begins to move south into the Plains. ... Southeast Florida ... Modest convergence along a remnant surface boundary may realize a weakly unstable environment to support showers and perhaps a few weak thunderstorms. Although the bulk of the activity should remain offshore in the Atlantic, a couple of lightning strikes will be possible across portions of far southeast Florida. ... Southern California ... A vigorous closed low over the eastern Pacific will continue to dig southeast, just off the California coast. The combination of modest large-scale ascent downstream of the nose of a cyclonically curved mid-level jet, cold mid-level temperatures, and onshore flow may support a couple of lightning strikes within any orographically enhanced shower. However confidence in this potential remains too low to warrant graphical depiction at this time. ..Marsh/Weinman.. 01/22/2026 Read more

MD 0031 CONCERNING SNOW SQUALL FOR PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN NY AND NORTHWESTERN PA
Mesoscale Discussion 0031 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0914 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026 Areas affected...Parts of southwestern NY and northwestern PA Concerning...Snow Squall Valid 220314Z - 220545Z SUMMARY...A snow squall will continue tracking eastward across parts of southwestern New York and northwestern Pennsylvania during the next few hours. DISCUSSION...A snow squall has recently organized/intensified as it moves eastward out of Ontario Canada. As the squall passed over KBUF, visibility dropped to 1/8 mile with a 28-kt gust. As ascent in the left-exit region of a robust midlevel jet streak continues overspreading western NY, the snow squall will continue tracking eastward along an associated surface winds shift during the next few hours. Around 40-45 kt of west-southwesterly flow in the lowest 1 km AGL (sampled by regional VWPs) and modestly steepened low-level lapse rates will continue to support strong gusts and visibility reductions of 1/4 mile or less in bursts of heavy snow. ..Weinman.. 01/22/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE... LAT...LON 41528029 42327910 43377777 43447723 43407677 43187641 42807632 42277675 41607749 41227817 40977886 40927942 40997995 41198031 41528029 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0648 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may occur across parts of far east Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley today and tonight. Additionally, a few lightning strikes may be possible late tonight across southeast Florida. ... 01Z Update... Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the United States this evening and tonight. A few lightning strikes may be possible across a couple different areas. ... Far East Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley ... A mid-level short-wave trough continues to through the larger-scale eastern US trough. Modest low-level warm advection associated with this short-wave trough will continue to support showers and a lightning strike or two across the area tonight. ... Southeast Florida ... A subtle short-wave trough and associated mid-level speed maximum will move northeast from the Gulf across northern Florida within the subtropical jet. Modest large-scale ascent associated with the right entrance region of this speed max may support showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two very late tonight. ..Marsh.. 01/22/2026 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0648 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may occur across parts of far east Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley today and tonight. Additionally, a few lightning strikes may be possible late tonight across southeast Florida. ... 01Z Update... Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the United States this evening and tonight. A few lightning strikes may be possible across a couple different areas. ... Far East Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley ... A mid-level short-wave trough continues to through the larger-scale eastern US trough. Modest low-level warm advection associated with this short-wave trough will continue to support showers and a lightning strike or two across the area tonight. ... Southeast Florida ... A subtle short-wave trough and associated mid-level speed maximum will move northeast from the Gulf across northern Florida within the subtropical jet. Modest large-scale ascent associated with the right entrance region of this speed max may support showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two very late tonight. ..Marsh.. 01/22/2026 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0648 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may occur across parts of far east Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley today and tonight. Additionally, a few lightning strikes may be possible late tonight across southeast Florida. ... 01Z Update... Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the United States this evening and tonight. A few lightning strikes may be possible across a couple different areas. ... Far East Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley ... A mid-level short-wave trough continues to through the larger-scale eastern US trough. Modest low-level warm advection associated with this short-wave trough will continue to support showers and a lightning strike or two across the area tonight. ... Southeast Florida ... A subtle short-wave trough and associated mid-level speed maximum will move northeast from the Gulf across northern Florida within the subtropical jet. Modest large-scale ascent associated with the right entrance region of this speed max may support showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two very late tonight. ..Marsh.. 01/22/2026 Read more

No watches are valid as of Wed Jan 21 22:07:02 UTC 2026.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Jan 21 22:07:02 UTC 2026.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0316 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026 Valid 231200Z - 291200Z A pronounced arctic air mass will filter into much of CONUS late week while a large scale upper-level trough deepens across the western U.S. on Day 3/Friday, translating eastward over the weekend and reaching the East Coast early next week. The trough will facilitate overrunning of East Pacific and Gulf moisture over the shallower cold air mass to bring a broad, mixed precipitation event across the Southwest and southern Plains beginning on Days 3-4/Friday-Saturday. Development of a surface trough/low across the Deep South and subsequent eastward advancement of the upper-level trough should support additional widespread precipitation across the Southeast, Mid Atlantic and Northeast for Day 5-6/Sunday-Monday. This will considerably reduce fire weather concerns across the majority of the eastern U.S. through the middle of next week. Longer term ensemble guidance does suggest a return to seasonably warmer and drier conditions across the central High Plains as early as Day 6/Monday, along with the potential for breezy downslope winds under a broad northwest flow aloft regime. However, uncertainty in spatial distribution of precedent precipitation across the region through this weekend reduces predictability of the fire weather threat for this region in the longer term. ..Williams.. 01/21/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0316 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026 Valid 231200Z - 291200Z A pronounced arctic air mass will filter into much of CONUS late week while a large scale upper-level trough deepens across the western U.S. on Day 3/Friday, translating eastward over the weekend and reaching the East Coast early next week. The trough will facilitate overrunning of East Pacific and Gulf moisture over the shallower cold air mass to bring a broad, mixed precipitation event across the Southwest and southern Plains beginning on Days 3-4/Friday-Saturday. Development of a surface trough/low across the Deep South and subsequent eastward advancement of the upper-level trough should support additional widespread precipitation across the Southeast, Mid Atlantic and Northeast for Day 5-6/Sunday-Monday. This will considerably reduce fire weather concerns across the majority of the eastern U.S. through the middle of next week. Longer term ensemble guidance does suggest a return to seasonably warmer and drier conditions across the central High Plains as early as Day 6/Monday, along with the potential for breezy downslope winds under a broad northwest flow aloft regime. However, uncertainty in spatial distribution of precedent precipitation across the region through this weekend reduces predictability of the fire weather threat for this region in the longer term. ..Williams.. 01/21/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0316 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026 Valid 231200Z - 291200Z A pronounced arctic air mass will filter into much of CONUS late week while a large scale upper-level trough deepens across the western U.S. on Day 3/Friday, translating eastward over the weekend and reaching the East Coast early next week. The trough will facilitate overrunning of East Pacific and Gulf moisture over the shallower cold air mass to bring a broad, mixed precipitation event across the Southwest and southern Plains beginning on Days 3-4/Friday-Saturday. Development of a surface trough/low across the Deep South and subsequent eastward advancement of the upper-level trough should support additional widespread precipitation across the Southeast, Mid Atlantic and Northeast for Day 5-6/Sunday-Monday. This will considerably reduce fire weather concerns across the majority of the eastern U.S. through the middle of next week. Longer term ensemble guidance does suggest a return to seasonably warmer and drier conditions across the central High Plains as early as Day 6/Monday, along with the potential for breezy downslope winds under a broad northwest flow aloft regime. However, uncertainty in spatial distribution of precedent precipitation across the region through this weekend reduces predictability of the fire weather threat for this region in the longer term. ..Williams.. 01/21/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more