Storm Prediction Center
SPC Jan 22, 2026 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1109 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered weak thunderstorm activity appears possible Friday into Friday night in a corridor across the Texas Big Bend into central Texas. ...Discussion... A confluent mid-level regime will generally be maintained across and east of the Rockies through this period, downstream of amplified split flow across the central/eastern Pacific into far western North America. Although models continue to indicate that peak surface pressures within the center of initially prominent, cold surface ridging will begin to fall while it slowly shifts east of the Missouri Valley, appreciable modification of the Arctic air will be slow, and it is likely to continue surging southward across the remainder of the southern Great Plains, through much of south central and southwestern Texas by late Friday night. The leading edge of this air mass is also forecast to advance further offshore of the southern Mid Atlantic coast, but slower southward through the eastern Gulf Coast states and lower Mississippi Valley. Models indicate that this will occur beneath a broad building mid-level ridge east of the Rio Grande Valley into the Southeast, downstream of digging mid-level troughing across the international border into the northern U.S. Rockies/Great Plains and a short wave trough emerging from the southern mid-latitude eastern Pacific. There is notable continuing spread concerning the eastward acceleration of the southern perturbation, generally toward Baja, Friday through Friday night. However, an increasingly moist and strengthening downstream southerly return flow still appears probable across and north of the lower Rio Grande Valley and Texas coastal areas, particularly during the latter half of the period. ...Southern Great Plains across/northeast of Red River Valley... Forecast soundings and other model output continue to indicate that lower/mid-tropospheric thermal and moisture advection may lead to thermodynamic profiles characterized by at least very weak to weak conditional instability in a sizable swath from the northern Mexican Plateau across the southern Great Plains, including north and northeast of the Red River Valley. However, particularly with north-northeastward extent, above the southward surging cold surface air, these same soundings generally exhibit little in the way of convective instability, with profiles tending to becoming saturated while also warming aloft. So the extent of potential for convective development capable of producing lightning remains unclear Friday through Friday night. Modestly steeper mid-level lapse rates, and perhaps better potential for weak thunderstorm activity, may remain confined to a corridor across the Texas Big Bend into Edwards Plateau, and adjacent portions of central Texas, where mid/upper support for convective development may be aided by a short wave perturbation emanating from the subtropical eastern Pacific. ..Kerr.. 01/22/2026 Read more
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1109 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered weak thunderstorm activity appears possible Friday into Friday night in a corridor across the Texas Big Bend into central Texas. ...Discussion... A confluent mid-level regime will generally be maintained across and east of the Rockies through this period, downstream of amplified split flow across the central/eastern Pacific into far western North America. Although models continue to indicate that peak surface pressures within the center of initially prominent, cold surface ridging will begin to fall while it slowly shifts east of the Missouri Valley, appreciable modification of the Arctic air will be slow, and it is likely to continue surging southward across the remainder of the southern Great Plains, through much of south central and southwestern Texas by late Friday night. The leading edge of this air mass is also forecast to advance further offshore of the southern Mid Atlantic coast, but slower southward through the eastern Gulf Coast states and lower Mississippi Valley. Models indicate that this will occur beneath a broad building mid-level ridge east of the Rio Grande Valley into the Southeast, downstream of digging mid-level troughing across the international border into the northern U.S. Rockies/Great Plains and a short wave trough emerging from the southern mid-latitude eastern Pacific. There is notable continuing spread concerning the eastward acceleration of the southern perturbation, generally toward Baja, Friday through Friday night. However, an increasingly moist and strengthening downstream southerly return flow still appears probable across and north of the lower Rio Grande Valley and Texas coastal areas, particularly during the latter half of the period. ...Southern Great Plains across/northeast of Red River Valley... Forecast soundings and other model output continue to indicate that lower/mid-tropospheric thermal and moisture advection may lead to thermodynamic profiles characterized by at least very weak to weak conditional instability in a sizable swath from the northern Mexican Plateau across the southern Great Plains, including north and northeast of the Red River Valley. However, particularly with north-northeastward extent, above the southward surging cold surface air, these same soundings generally exhibit little in the way of convective instability, with profiles tending to becoming saturated while also warming aloft. So the extent of potential for convective development capable of producing lightning remains unclear Friday through Friday night. Modestly steeper mid-level lapse rates, and perhaps better potential for weak thunderstorm activity, may remain confined to a corridor across the Texas Big Bend into Edwards Plateau, and adjacent portions of central Texas, where mid/upper support for convective development may be aided by a short wave perturbation emanating from the subtropical eastern Pacific. ..Kerr.. 01/22/2026 Read more
SPC Jan 22, 2026 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1109 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered weak thunderstorm activity appears possible Friday into Friday night in a corridor across the Texas Big Bend into central Texas. ...Discussion... A confluent mid-level regime will generally be maintained across and east of the Rockies through this period, downstream of amplified split flow across the central/eastern Pacific into far western North America. Although models continue to indicate that peak surface pressures within the center of initially prominent, cold surface ridging will begin to fall while it slowly shifts east of the Missouri Valley, appreciable modification of the Arctic air will be slow, and it is likely to continue surging southward across the remainder of the southern Great Plains, through much of south central and southwestern Texas by late Friday night. The leading edge of this air mass is also forecast to advance further offshore of the southern Mid Atlantic coast, but slower southward through the eastern Gulf Coast states and lower Mississippi Valley. Models indicate that this will occur beneath a broad building mid-level ridge east of the Rio Grande Valley into the Southeast, downstream of digging mid-level troughing across the international border into the northern U.S. Rockies/Great Plains and a short wave trough emerging from the southern mid-latitude eastern Pacific. There is notable continuing spread concerning the eastward acceleration of the southern perturbation, generally toward Baja, Friday through Friday night. However, an increasingly moist and strengthening downstream southerly return flow still appears probable across and north of the lower Rio Grande Valley and Texas coastal areas, particularly during the latter half of the period. ...Southern Great Plains across/northeast of Red River Valley... Forecast soundings and other model output continue to indicate that lower/mid-tropospheric thermal and moisture advection may lead to thermodynamic profiles characterized by at least very weak to weak conditional instability in a sizable swath from the northern Mexican Plateau across the southern Great Plains, including north and northeast of the Red River Valley. However, particularly with north-northeastward extent, above the southward surging cold surface air, these same soundings generally exhibit little in the way of convective instability, with profiles tending to becoming saturated while also warming aloft. So the extent of potential for convective development capable of producing lightning remains unclear Friday through Friday night. Modestly steeper mid-level lapse rates, and perhaps better potential for weak thunderstorm activity, may remain confined to a corridor across the Texas Big Bend into Edwards Plateau, and adjacent portions of central Texas, where mid/upper support for convective development may be aided by a short wave perturbation emanating from the subtropical eastern Pacific. ..Kerr.. 01/22/2026 Read more
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1109 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered weak thunderstorm activity appears possible Friday into Friday night in a corridor across the Texas Big Bend into central Texas. ...Discussion... A confluent mid-level regime will generally be maintained across and east of the Rockies through this period, downstream of amplified split flow across the central/eastern Pacific into far western North America. Although models continue to indicate that peak surface pressures within the center of initially prominent, cold surface ridging will begin to fall while it slowly shifts east of the Missouri Valley, appreciable modification of the Arctic air will be slow, and it is likely to continue surging southward across the remainder of the southern Great Plains, through much of south central and southwestern Texas by late Friday night. The leading edge of this air mass is also forecast to advance further offshore of the southern Mid Atlantic coast, but slower southward through the eastern Gulf Coast states and lower Mississippi Valley. Models indicate that this will occur beneath a broad building mid-level ridge east of the Rio Grande Valley into the Southeast, downstream of digging mid-level troughing across the international border into the northern U.S. Rockies/Great Plains and a short wave trough emerging from the southern mid-latitude eastern Pacific. There is notable continuing spread concerning the eastward acceleration of the southern perturbation, generally toward Baja, Friday through Friday night. However, an increasingly moist and strengthening downstream southerly return flow still appears probable across and north of the lower Rio Grande Valley and Texas coastal areas, particularly during the latter half of the period. ...Southern Great Plains across/northeast of Red River Valley... Forecast soundings and other model output continue to indicate that lower/mid-tropospheric thermal and moisture advection may lead to thermodynamic profiles characterized by at least very weak to weak conditional instability in a sizable swath from the northern Mexican Plateau across the southern Great Plains, including north and northeast of the Red River Valley. However, particularly with north-northeastward extent, above the southward surging cold surface air, these same soundings generally exhibit little in the way of convective instability, with profiles tending to becoming saturated while also warming aloft. So the extent of potential for convective development capable of producing lightning remains unclear Friday through Friday night. Modestly steeper mid-level lapse rates, and perhaps better potential for weak thunderstorm activity, may remain confined to a corridor across the Texas Big Bend into Edwards Plateau, and adjacent portions of central Texas, where mid/upper support for convective development may be aided by a short wave perturbation emanating from the subtropical eastern Pacific. ..Kerr.. 01/22/2026 Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1039 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026 Valid 221700Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Westerly flow aloft across the Southwest and associated surface troughing across the southern High Plains will support localized downslope-enhanced west winds of 15-20 mph in immediate leeward locations and favored terrain gaps of south-central CO and central NM mountains. Alignment of elevated surface winds with relative humidity around 15% could yield localized and brief elevated fire weather conditions through the afternoon, although increasing cloud cover and marginal fuels should mitigate a broader fire weather threat. ..Williams.. 01/22/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1152 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026/ ...Synopsis... An arctic air mass will begin to overspread the Great Plains and Midwest, reducing fire-weather concerns across much of the CONUS. Farther south, downslope flow off the southern Rockies and lee troughing over the High Plains will contribute to locally dry/breezy conditions across parts of southern CO and NM during the afternoon. However, fire-weather concerns will generally be limited, given both marginal wind/RH and fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1039 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026 Valid 221700Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Westerly flow aloft across the Southwest and associated surface troughing across the southern High Plains will support localized downslope-enhanced west winds of 15-20 mph in immediate leeward locations and favored terrain gaps of south-central CO and central NM mountains. Alignment of elevated surface winds with relative humidity around 15% could yield localized and brief elevated fire weather conditions through the afternoon, although increasing cloud cover and marginal fuels should mitigate a broader fire weather threat. ..Williams.. 01/22/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1152 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026/ ...Synopsis... An arctic air mass will begin to overspread the Great Plains and Midwest, reducing fire-weather concerns across much of the CONUS. Farther south, downslope flow off the southern Rockies and lee troughing over the High Plains will contribute to locally dry/breezy conditions across parts of southern CO and NM during the afternoon. However, fire-weather concerns will generally be limited, given both marginal wind/RH and fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1039 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026 Valid 221700Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Westerly flow aloft across the Southwest and associated surface troughing across the southern High Plains will support localized downslope-enhanced west winds of 15-20 mph in immediate leeward locations and favored terrain gaps of south-central CO and central NM mountains. Alignment of elevated surface winds with relative humidity around 15% could yield localized and brief elevated fire weather conditions through the afternoon, although increasing cloud cover and marginal fuels should mitigate a broader fire weather threat. ..Williams.. 01/22/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1152 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026/ ...Synopsis... An arctic air mass will begin to overspread the Great Plains and Midwest, reducing fire-weather concerns across much of the CONUS. Farther south, downslope flow off the southern Rockies and lee troughing over the High Plains will contribute to locally dry/breezy conditions across parts of southern CO and NM during the afternoon. However, fire-weather concerns will generally be limited, given both marginal wind/RH and fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1039 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026 Valid 221700Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Westerly flow aloft across the Southwest and associated surface troughing across the southern High Plains will support localized downslope-enhanced west winds of 15-20 mph in immediate leeward locations and favored terrain gaps of south-central CO and central NM mountains. Alignment of elevated surface winds with relative humidity around 15% could yield localized and brief elevated fire weather conditions through the afternoon, although increasing cloud cover and marginal fuels should mitigate a broader fire weather threat. ..Williams.. 01/22/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1152 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026/ ...Synopsis... An arctic air mass will begin to overspread the Great Plains and Midwest, reducing fire-weather concerns across much of the CONUS. Farther south, downslope flow off the southern Rockies and lee troughing over the High Plains will contribute to locally dry/breezy conditions across parts of southern CO and NM during the afternoon. However, fire-weather concerns will generally be limited, given both marginal wind/RH and fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1039 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026 Valid 221700Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Westerly flow aloft across the Southwest and associated surface troughing across the southern High Plains will support localized downslope-enhanced west winds of 15-20 mph in immediate leeward locations and favored terrain gaps of south-central CO and central NM mountains. Alignment of elevated surface winds with relative humidity around 15% could yield localized and brief elevated fire weather conditions through the afternoon, although increasing cloud cover and marginal fuels should mitigate a broader fire weather threat. ..Williams.. 01/22/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1152 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026/ ...Synopsis... An arctic air mass will begin to overspread the Great Plains and Midwest, reducing fire-weather concerns across much of the CONUS. Farther south, downslope flow off the southern Rockies and lee troughing over the High Plains will contribute to locally dry/breezy conditions across parts of southern CO and NM during the afternoon. However, fire-weather concerns will generally be limited, given both marginal wind/RH and fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1039 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026 Valid 221700Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Westerly flow aloft across the Southwest and associated surface troughing across the southern High Plains will support localized downslope-enhanced west winds of 15-20 mph in immediate leeward locations and favored terrain gaps of south-central CO and central NM mountains. Alignment of elevated surface winds with relative humidity around 15% could yield localized and brief elevated fire weather conditions through the afternoon, although increasing cloud cover and marginal fuels should mitigate a broader fire weather threat. ..Williams.. 01/22/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1152 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026/ ...Synopsis... An arctic air mass will begin to overspread the Great Plains and Midwest, reducing fire-weather concerns across much of the CONUS. Farther south, downslope flow off the southern Rockies and lee troughing over the High Plains will contribute to locally dry/breezy conditions across parts of southern CO and NM during the afternoon. However, fire-weather concerns will generally be limited, given both marginal wind/RH and fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1039 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026 Valid 221700Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Westerly flow aloft across the Southwest and associated surface troughing across the southern High Plains will support localized downslope-enhanced west winds of 15-20 mph in immediate leeward locations and favored terrain gaps of south-central CO and central NM mountains. Alignment of elevated surface winds with relative humidity around 15% could yield localized and brief elevated fire weather conditions through the afternoon, although increasing cloud cover and marginal fuels should mitigate a broader fire weather threat. ..Williams.. 01/22/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1152 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026/ ...Synopsis... An arctic air mass will begin to overspread the Great Plains and Midwest, reducing fire-weather concerns across much of the CONUS. Farther south, downslope flow off the southern Rockies and lee troughing over the High Plains will contribute to locally dry/breezy conditions across parts of southern CO and NM during the afternoon. However, fire-weather concerns will generally be limited, given both marginal wind/RH and fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1039 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026 Valid 221700Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Westerly flow aloft across the Southwest and associated surface troughing across the southern High Plains will support localized downslope-enhanced west winds of 15-20 mph in immediate leeward locations and favored terrain gaps of south-central CO and central NM mountains. Alignment of elevated surface winds with relative humidity around 15% could yield localized and brief elevated fire weather conditions through the afternoon, although increasing cloud cover and marginal fuels should mitigate a broader fire weather threat. ..Williams.. 01/22/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1152 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026/ ...Synopsis... An arctic air mass will begin to overspread the Great Plains and Midwest, reducing fire-weather concerns across much of the CONUS. Farther south, downslope flow off the southern Rockies and lee troughing over the High Plains will contribute to locally dry/breezy conditions across parts of southern CO and NM during the afternoon. However, fire-weather concerns will generally be limited, given both marginal wind/RH and fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
SPC Jan 22, 2026 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0955 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026 Valid 221630Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across southeast Florida today, but severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...SE FL... A weak surface boundary lies just offshore along the southeast FL coast. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will persist along this boundary through early evening as an upper trough progresses across the region. This threat should weaken after dark. No severe storms are expected. ..Hart/Wendt.. 01/22/2026 Read more
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0955 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026 Valid 221630Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across southeast Florida today, but severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...SE FL... A weak surface boundary lies just offshore along the southeast FL coast. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will persist along this boundary through early evening as an upper trough progresses across the region. This threat should weaken after dark. No severe storms are expected. ..Hart/Wendt.. 01/22/2026 Read more
SPC Jan 22, 2026 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0955 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026 Valid 221630Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across southeast Florida today, but severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...SE FL... A weak surface boundary lies just offshore along the southeast FL coast. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will persist along this boundary through early evening as an upper trough progresses across the region. This threat should weaken after dark. No severe storms are expected. ..Hart/Wendt.. 01/22/2026 Read more
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0955 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026 Valid 221630Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across southeast Florida today, but severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...SE FL... A weak surface boundary lies just offshore along the southeast FL coast. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will persist along this boundary through early evening as an upper trough progresses across the region. This threat should weaken after dark. No severe storms are expected. ..Hart/Wendt.. 01/22/2026 Read more
SPC Jan 22, 2026 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0955 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026 Valid 221630Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across southeast Florida today, but severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...SE FL... A weak surface boundary lies just offshore along the southeast FL coast. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will persist along this boundary through early evening as an upper trough progresses across the region. This threat should weaken after dark. No severe storms are expected. ..Hart/Wendt.. 01/22/2026 Read more
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0955 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026 Valid 221630Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across southeast Florida today, but severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...SE FL... A weak surface boundary lies just offshore along the southeast FL coast. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will persist along this boundary through early evening as an upper trough progresses across the region. This threat should weaken after dark. No severe storms are expected. ..Hart/Wendt.. 01/22/2026 Read more
SPC Jan 22, 2026 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0955 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026 Valid 221630Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across southeast Florida today, but severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...SE FL... A weak surface boundary lies just offshore along the southeast FL coast. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will persist along this boundary through early evening as an upper trough progresses across the region. This threat should weaken after dark. No severe storms are expected. ..Hart/Wendt.. 01/22/2026 Read more
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0955 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026 Valid 221630Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across southeast Florida today, but severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...SE FL... A weak surface boundary lies just offshore along the southeast FL coast. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will persist along this boundary through early evening as an upper trough progresses across the region. This threat should weaken after dark. No severe storms are expected. ..Hart/Wendt.. 01/22/2026 Read more
SPC Jan 22, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0630 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026 Valid 221300Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across southeast Florida today, but severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Surface high pressure will remain dominant today across much of the Plains into the MS/OH Valleys amid persistent upper troughing over the central/eastern CONUS. As such, overall thunderstorm potential should remain generally low, with perhaps a couple exceptions. Isolated thunderstorms appear possible across parts of coastal/southeast FL along/near a weak inverted surface trough amid greater low-level moisture and modest buoyancy. An upper low over the eastern Pacific should develop south-southeastward through the period off the coast of southern CA/northern Baja. Cool temperatures aloft may support weak MUCAPE and very isolated lightning flashes with convection that should remain mostly offshore this afternoon. Overall coverage of thunderstorms appears less than 10% across coastal southern CA. ..Gleason/Dean.. 01/22/2026 Read more
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0630 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026 Valid 221300Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across southeast Florida today, but severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Surface high pressure will remain dominant today across much of the Plains into the MS/OH Valleys amid persistent upper troughing over the central/eastern CONUS. As such, overall thunderstorm potential should remain generally low, with perhaps a couple exceptions. Isolated thunderstorms appear possible across parts of coastal/southeast FL along/near a weak inverted surface trough amid greater low-level moisture and modest buoyancy. An upper low over the eastern Pacific should develop south-southeastward through the period off the coast of southern CA/northern Baja. Cool temperatures aloft may support weak MUCAPE and very isolated lightning flashes with convection that should remain mostly offshore this afternoon. Overall coverage of thunderstorms appears less than 10% across coastal southern CA. ..Gleason/Dean.. 01/22/2026 Read more
SPC Jan 22, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0630 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026 Valid 221300Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across southeast Florida today, but severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Surface high pressure will remain dominant today across much of the Plains into the MS/OH Valleys amid persistent upper troughing over the central/eastern CONUS. As such, overall thunderstorm potential should remain generally low, with perhaps a couple exceptions. Isolated thunderstorms appear possible across parts of coastal/southeast FL along/near a weak inverted surface trough amid greater low-level moisture and modest buoyancy. An upper low over the eastern Pacific should develop south-southeastward through the period off the coast of southern CA/northern Baja. Cool temperatures aloft may support weak MUCAPE and very isolated lightning flashes with convection that should remain mostly offshore this afternoon. Overall coverage of thunderstorms appears less than 10% across coastal southern CA. ..Gleason/Dean.. 01/22/2026 Read more
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0630 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026 Valid 221300Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across southeast Florida today, but severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Surface high pressure will remain dominant today across much of the Plains into the MS/OH Valleys amid persistent upper troughing over the central/eastern CONUS. As such, overall thunderstorm potential should remain generally low, with perhaps a couple exceptions. Isolated thunderstorms appear possible across parts of coastal/southeast FL along/near a weak inverted surface trough amid greater low-level moisture and modest buoyancy. An upper low over the eastern Pacific should develop south-southeastward through the period off the coast of southern CA/northern Baja. Cool temperatures aloft may support weak MUCAPE and very isolated lightning flashes with convection that should remain mostly offshore this afternoon. Overall coverage of thunderstorms appears less than 10% across coastal southern CA. ..Gleason/Dean.. 01/22/2026 Read more
SPC Jan 22, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0630 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026 Valid 221300Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across southeast Florida today, but severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Surface high pressure will remain dominant today across much of the Plains into the MS/OH Valleys amid persistent upper troughing over the central/eastern CONUS. As such, overall thunderstorm potential should remain generally low, with perhaps a couple exceptions. Isolated thunderstorms appear possible across parts of coastal/southeast FL along/near a weak inverted surface trough amid greater low-level moisture and modest buoyancy. An upper low over the eastern Pacific should develop south-southeastward through the period off the coast of southern CA/northern Baja. Cool temperatures aloft may support weak MUCAPE and very isolated lightning flashes with convection that should remain mostly offshore this afternoon. Overall coverage of thunderstorms appears less than 10% across coastal southern CA. ..Gleason/Dean.. 01/22/2026 Read more
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0630 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026 Valid 221300Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across southeast Florida today, but severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Surface high pressure will remain dominant today across much of the Plains into the MS/OH Valleys amid persistent upper troughing over the central/eastern CONUS. As such, overall thunderstorm potential should remain generally low, with perhaps a couple exceptions. Isolated thunderstorms appear possible across parts of coastal/southeast FL along/near a weak inverted surface trough amid greater low-level moisture and modest buoyancy. An upper low over the eastern Pacific should develop south-southeastward through the period off the coast of southern CA/northern Baja. Cool temperatures aloft may support weak MUCAPE and very isolated lightning flashes with convection that should remain mostly offshore this afternoon. Overall coverage of thunderstorms appears less than 10% across coastal southern CA. ..Gleason/Dean.. 01/22/2026 Read more
SPC Jan 22, 2026 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026 Valid 251200Z - 301200Z ...DISCUSSION... A surface low over the Deep South on Day 4/Sunday morning will develop east/northeast through early Monday, moving offshore the Carolinas coast. As this occurs, an arctic cold front will continue to push southeast across the Southeast U.S. Ahead of the front, modified Gulf moisture will be in place, supporting weak instability. As an upper trough approaches, large-scale ascent and warm advection atop the surface front will support isolated thunderstorms across southern MS/AL into northern FL and southern GA. Modest instability and poor lapse rates should limit severe potential within the warm sector. By Day 5/Monday, the cold front will have moved well offshore the Gulf and Atlantic coasts and an arctic airmass will envelop much of the CONUS. Mean troughing is forecast to persist, allowing reinforcing shots of colder air to filter southward east of the Rockies and preclude any return flow across the Gulf basin. Read more
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026 Valid 251200Z - 301200Z ...DISCUSSION... A surface low over the Deep South on Day 4/Sunday morning will develop east/northeast through early Monday, moving offshore the Carolinas coast. As this occurs, an arctic cold front will continue to push southeast across the Southeast U.S. Ahead of the front, modified Gulf moisture will be in place, supporting weak instability. As an upper trough approaches, large-scale ascent and warm advection atop the surface front will support isolated thunderstorms across southern MS/AL into northern FL and southern GA. Modest instability and poor lapse rates should limit severe potential within the warm sector. By Day 5/Monday, the cold front will have moved well offshore the Gulf and Atlantic coasts and an arctic airmass will envelop much of the CONUS. Mean troughing is forecast to persist, allowing reinforcing shots of colder air to filter southward east of the Rockies and preclude any return flow across the Gulf basin. Read more
SPC Jan 22, 2026 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026 Valid 251200Z - 301200Z ...DISCUSSION... A surface low over the Deep South on Day 4/Sunday morning will develop east/northeast through early Monday, moving offshore the Carolinas coast. As this occurs, an arctic cold front will continue to push southeast across the Southeast U.S. Ahead of the front, modified Gulf moisture will be in place, supporting weak instability. As an upper trough approaches, large-scale ascent and warm advection atop the surface front will support isolated thunderstorms across southern MS/AL into northern FL and southern GA. Modest instability and poor lapse rates should limit severe potential within the warm sector. By Day 5/Monday, the cold front will have moved well offshore the Gulf and Atlantic coasts and an arctic airmass will envelop much of the CONUS. Mean troughing is forecast to persist, allowing reinforcing shots of colder air to filter southward east of the Rockies and preclude any return flow across the Gulf basin. Read more
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026 Valid 251200Z - 301200Z ...DISCUSSION... A surface low over the Deep South on Day 4/Sunday morning will develop east/northeast through early Monday, moving offshore the Carolinas coast. As this occurs, an arctic cold front will continue to push southeast across the Southeast U.S. Ahead of the front, modified Gulf moisture will be in place, supporting weak instability. As an upper trough approaches, large-scale ascent and warm advection atop the surface front will support isolated thunderstorms across southern MS/AL into northern FL and southern GA. Modest instability and poor lapse rates should limit severe potential within the warm sector. By Day 5/Monday, the cold front will have moved well offshore the Gulf and Atlantic coasts and an arctic airmass will envelop much of the CONUS. Mean troughing is forecast to persist, allowing reinforcing shots of colder air to filter southward east of the Rockies and preclude any return flow across the Gulf basin. Read more
SPC Jan 22, 2026 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026 Valid 251200Z - 301200Z ...DISCUSSION... A surface low over the Deep South on Day 4/Sunday morning will develop east/northeast through early Monday, moving offshore the Carolinas coast. As this occurs, an arctic cold front will continue to push southeast across the Southeast U.S. Ahead of the front, modified Gulf moisture will be in place, supporting weak instability. As an upper trough approaches, large-scale ascent and warm advection atop the surface front will support isolated thunderstorms across southern MS/AL into northern FL and southern GA. Modest instability and poor lapse rates should limit severe potential within the warm sector. By Day 5/Monday, the cold front will have moved well offshore the Gulf and Atlantic coasts and an arctic airmass will envelop much of the CONUS. Mean troughing is forecast to persist, allowing reinforcing shots of colder air to filter southward east of the Rockies and preclude any return flow across the Gulf basin. Read more
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026 Valid 251200Z - 301200Z ...DISCUSSION... A surface low over the Deep South on Day 4/Sunday morning will develop east/northeast through early Monday, moving offshore the Carolinas coast. As this occurs, an arctic cold front will continue to push southeast across the Southeast U.S. Ahead of the front, modified Gulf moisture will be in place, supporting weak instability. As an upper trough approaches, large-scale ascent and warm advection atop the surface front will support isolated thunderstorms across southern MS/AL into northern FL and southern GA. Modest instability and poor lapse rates should limit severe potential within the warm sector. By Day 5/Monday, the cold front will have moved well offshore the Gulf and Atlantic coasts and an arctic airmass will envelop much of the CONUS. Mean troughing is forecast to persist, allowing reinforcing shots of colder air to filter southward east of the Rockies and preclude any return flow across the Gulf basin. Read more
SPC Jan 22, 2026 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0122 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated weak thunderstorms will be possible on Saturday and Saturday night across portions of eastern Texas into Louisiana and southern Mississippi. ...Synopsis... An arctic cold front will continue to develop southeast across the western and central Gulf Coast vicinity on Saturday. Warm advection atop the boundary and cooling aloft will support modest instability. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible in the vicinity of the front from the Upper Texas Coast into southern LA. Some thunderstorm potential may even accompany convective elements within wintry precipitation to the cold side of the surface front. Severe storms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 01/22/2026 Read more
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0122 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated weak thunderstorms will be possible on Saturday and Saturday night across portions of eastern Texas into Louisiana and southern Mississippi. ...Synopsis... An arctic cold front will continue to develop southeast across the western and central Gulf Coast vicinity on Saturday. Warm advection atop the boundary and cooling aloft will support modest instability. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible in the vicinity of the front from the Upper Texas Coast into southern LA. Some thunderstorm potential may even accompany convective elements within wintry precipitation to the cold side of the surface front. Severe storms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 01/22/2026 Read more
SPC Jan 22, 2026 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0122 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated weak thunderstorms will be possible on Saturday and Saturday night across portions of eastern Texas into Louisiana and southern Mississippi. ...Synopsis... An arctic cold front will continue to develop southeast across the western and central Gulf Coast vicinity on Saturday. Warm advection atop the boundary and cooling aloft will support modest instability. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible in the vicinity of the front from the Upper Texas Coast into southern LA. Some thunderstorm potential may even accompany convective elements within wintry precipitation to the cold side of the surface front. Severe storms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 01/22/2026 Read more
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0122 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated weak thunderstorms will be possible on Saturday and Saturday night across portions of eastern Texas into Louisiana and southern Mississippi. ...Synopsis... An arctic cold front will continue to develop southeast across the western and central Gulf Coast vicinity on Saturday. Warm advection atop the boundary and cooling aloft will support modest instability. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible in the vicinity of the front from the Upper Texas Coast into southern LA. Some thunderstorm potential may even accompany convective elements within wintry precipitation to the cold side of the surface front. Severe storms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 01/22/2026 Read more
SPC Jan 22, 2026 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0122 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated weak thunderstorms will be possible on Saturday and Saturday night across portions of eastern Texas into Louisiana and southern Mississippi. ...Synopsis... An arctic cold front will continue to develop southeast across the western and central Gulf Coast vicinity on Saturday. Warm advection atop the boundary and cooling aloft will support modest instability. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible in the vicinity of the front from the Upper Texas Coast into southern LA. Some thunderstorm potential may even accompany convective elements within wintry precipitation to the cold side of the surface front. Severe storms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 01/22/2026 Read more
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0122 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated weak thunderstorms will be possible on Saturday and Saturday night across portions of eastern Texas into Louisiana and southern Mississippi. ...Synopsis... An arctic cold front will continue to develop southeast across the western and central Gulf Coast vicinity on Saturday. Warm advection atop the boundary and cooling aloft will support modest instability. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible in the vicinity of the front from the Upper Texas Coast into southern LA. Some thunderstorm potential may even accompany convective elements within wintry precipitation to the cold side of the surface front. Severe storms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 01/22/2026 Read more
SPC Jan 22, 2026 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1205 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated weak thunderstorm activity is possible Friday afternoon into Friday night across parts of central Texas. ...Synopsis... An upper low and attendant shortwave trough off the southern CA/northern Baja coasts Friday morning will develop east toward northwest Mexico and lower CO Valley by Saturday morning. As this occurs, increasing midlevel moisture will spread northeast across the southern Plains as an arctic cold front dives southward across OK/TX. As forcing for ascent increases Friday afternoon into the overnight hours, mainly wintry precipitation is expected across OK and the northern half of TX. Near and to the south of the arctic cold front, sufficient low-level moisture will be in place to support modest instability, especially as midlevel temperatures cool. This could result in isolated thunderstorms near the southward-surging cold front, or within the transition zone just to the cool side of the boundary where sleet and freezing rain are possible. ..Leitman.. 01/22/2026 Read more
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1205 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated weak thunderstorm activity is possible Friday afternoon into Friday night across parts of central Texas. ...Synopsis... An upper low and attendant shortwave trough off the southern CA/northern Baja coasts Friday morning will develop east toward northwest Mexico and lower CO Valley by Saturday morning. As this occurs, increasing midlevel moisture will spread northeast across the southern Plains as an arctic cold front dives southward across OK/TX. As forcing for ascent increases Friday afternoon into the overnight hours, mainly wintry precipitation is expected across OK and the northern half of TX. Near and to the south of the arctic cold front, sufficient low-level moisture will be in place to support modest instability, especially as midlevel temperatures cool. This could result in isolated thunderstorms near the southward-surging cold front, or within the transition zone just to the cool side of the boundary where sleet and freezing rain are possible. ..Leitman.. 01/22/2026 Read more