SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1017 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026 Valid 211630Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms should occur across parts of east/southeast Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley today and tonight. ...ArkLaTex Region... The persistent upper trough over the eastern states will maintain fast cyclonic flow aloft over the Gulf coast states today. A surface cold front will sag southward across parts of TX/AR/LA and eventually into MS. The air mass ahead of the front is moderately moist, with MUCAPE of less than 500 J/kg. This will result in occasional clusters of thunderstorms, but no severe storms are anticipated. ...South FL... A subtle southern-stream shortwave trough will move across the Gulf and approach FL late tonight. This will result in an increase in the risk of isolated thunderstorms over southeast FL - mainly after midnight. ..Hart/Lyons.. 01/21/2026 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1017 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026 Valid 211630Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms should occur across parts of east/southeast Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley today and tonight. ...ArkLaTex Region... The persistent upper trough over the eastern states will maintain fast cyclonic flow aloft over the Gulf coast states today. A surface cold front will sag southward across parts of TX/AR/LA and eventually into MS. The air mass ahead of the front is moderately moist, with MUCAPE of less than 500 J/kg. This will result in occasional clusters of thunderstorms, but no severe storms are anticipated. ...South FL... A subtle southern-stream shortwave trough will move across the Gulf and approach FL late tonight. This will result in an increase in the risk of isolated thunderstorms over southeast FL - mainly after midnight. ..Hart/Lyons.. 01/21/2026 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1017 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026 Valid 211630Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms should occur across parts of east/southeast Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley today and tonight. ...ArkLaTex Region... The persistent upper trough over the eastern states will maintain fast cyclonic flow aloft over the Gulf coast states today. A surface cold front will sag southward across parts of TX/AR/LA and eventually into MS. The air mass ahead of the front is moderately moist, with MUCAPE of less than 500 J/kg. This will result in occasional clusters of thunderstorms, but no severe storms are anticipated. ...South FL... A subtle southern-stream shortwave trough will move across the Gulf and approach FL late tonight. This will result in an increase in the risk of isolated thunderstorms over southeast FL - mainly after midnight. ..Hart/Lyons.. 01/21/2026 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1017 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026 Valid 211630Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms should occur across parts of east/southeast Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley today and tonight. ...ArkLaTex Region... The persistent upper trough over the eastern states will maintain fast cyclonic flow aloft over the Gulf coast states today. A surface cold front will sag southward across parts of TX/AR/LA and eventually into MS. The air mass ahead of the front is moderately moist, with MUCAPE of less than 500 J/kg. This will result in occasional clusters of thunderstorms, but no severe storms are anticipated. ...South FL... A subtle southern-stream shortwave trough will move across the Gulf and approach FL late tonight. This will result in an increase in the risk of isolated thunderstorms over southeast FL - mainly after midnight. ..Hart/Lyons.. 01/21/2026 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0624 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026 Valid 211300Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms should occur across parts of east/southeast Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley today and tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Modest low-level moisture will make some inland advancement today across east/southeast TX into the lower MS Valley ahead of a surface cold front as longwave upper troughing persists across the central/eastern CONUS. A low-amplitude shortwave trough rounding the base of the large-scale upper trough should continue to encourage showers and isolated/mainly elevated convection across these areas through tonight. Instability is expected to remain too weak to support severe thunderstorms. ..Gleason/Dean.. 01/21/2026 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0624 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026 Valid 211300Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms should occur across parts of east/southeast Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley today and tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Modest low-level moisture will make some inland advancement today across east/southeast TX into the lower MS Valley ahead of a surface cold front as longwave upper troughing persists across the central/eastern CONUS. A low-amplitude shortwave trough rounding the base of the large-scale upper trough should continue to encourage showers and isolated/mainly elevated convection across these areas through tonight. Instability is expected to remain too weak to support severe thunderstorms. ..Gleason/Dean.. 01/21/2026 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0624 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026 Valid 211300Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms should occur across parts of east/southeast Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley today and tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Modest low-level moisture will make some inland advancement today across east/southeast TX into the lower MS Valley ahead of a surface cold front as longwave upper troughing persists across the central/eastern CONUS. A low-amplitude shortwave trough rounding the base of the large-scale upper trough should continue to encourage showers and isolated/mainly elevated convection across these areas through tonight. Instability is expected to remain too weak to support severe thunderstorms. ..Gleason/Dean.. 01/21/2026 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0624 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026 Valid 211300Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms should occur across parts of east/southeast Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley today and tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Modest low-level moisture will make some inland advancement today across east/southeast TX into the lower MS Valley ahead of a surface cold front as longwave upper troughing persists across the central/eastern CONUS. A low-amplitude shortwave trough rounding the base of the large-scale upper trough should continue to encourage showers and isolated/mainly elevated convection across these areas through tonight. Instability is expected to remain too weak to support severe thunderstorms. ..Gleason/Dean.. 01/21/2026 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0235 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026 Valid 241200Z - 291200Z ...DISCUSSION... A large-scale upper trough will shift from the Rockies through the central and eastern CONUS Days 4-6/Sat-Mon. As this occurs, a very cold airmass will overspread much of the country, with a swath of winter precipitation expected to spread from the southern Plains through the Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, model guidance varies, but a deepening low is expected to develop over the central Gulf Coast vicinity on Saturday night/early Sunday. The low and trailing cold front will move offshore the Atlantic coast by early Monday. Depending how far north the surface low develops, some thunderstorm potential could increase across parts of the central Gulf Coast and the FL Panhandle on Sunday. However, severe storms appear unlikely. The very cold airmass settling over much of the country during the weekend is likely to persist into early next week, precluding thunderstorm potential through the end of the period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0235 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026 Valid 241200Z - 291200Z ...DISCUSSION... A large-scale upper trough will shift from the Rockies through the central and eastern CONUS Days 4-6/Sat-Mon. As this occurs, a very cold airmass will overspread much of the country, with a swath of winter precipitation expected to spread from the southern Plains through the Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, model guidance varies, but a deepening low is expected to develop over the central Gulf Coast vicinity on Saturday night/early Sunday. The low and trailing cold front will move offshore the Atlantic coast by early Monday. Depending how far north the surface low develops, some thunderstorm potential could increase across parts of the central Gulf Coast and the FL Panhandle on Sunday. However, severe storms appear unlikely. The very cold airmass settling over much of the country during the weekend is likely to persist into early next week, precluding thunderstorm potential through the end of the period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0235 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026 Valid 241200Z - 291200Z ...DISCUSSION... A large-scale upper trough will shift from the Rockies through the central and eastern CONUS Days 4-6/Sat-Mon. As this occurs, a very cold airmass will overspread much of the country, with a swath of winter precipitation expected to spread from the southern Plains through the Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, model guidance varies, but a deepening low is expected to develop over the central Gulf Coast vicinity on Saturday night/early Sunday. The low and trailing cold front will move offshore the Atlantic coast by early Monday. Depending how far north the surface low develops, some thunderstorm potential could increase across parts of the central Gulf Coast and the FL Panhandle on Sunday. However, severe storms appear unlikely. The very cold airmass settling over much of the country during the weekend is likely to persist into early next week, precluding thunderstorm potential through the end of the period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0235 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026 Valid 241200Z - 291200Z ...DISCUSSION... A large-scale upper trough will shift from the Rockies through the central and eastern CONUS Days 4-6/Sat-Mon. As this occurs, a very cold airmass will overspread much of the country, with a swath of winter precipitation expected to spread from the southern Plains through the Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, model guidance varies, but a deepening low is expected to develop over the central Gulf Coast vicinity on Saturday night/early Sunday. The low and trailing cold front will move offshore the Atlantic coast by early Monday. Depending how far north the surface low develops, some thunderstorm potential could increase across parts of the central Gulf Coast and the FL Panhandle on Sunday. However, severe storms appear unlikely. The very cold airmass settling over much of the country during the weekend is likely to persist into early next week, precluding thunderstorm potential through the end of the period. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An arctic air mass will begin to infiltrate the northern and central Plains on Thursday, limiting the fire-weather risk across much of the CONUS. The only exception will be in the lee of the southern Rockies in NM, where westerly/downslope flow and lee troughing will favor locally dry/breezy conditions during the afternoon. ..Weinman.. 01/21/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An arctic air mass will begin to infiltrate the northern and central Plains on Thursday, limiting the fire-weather risk across much of the CONUS. The only exception will be in the lee of the southern Rockies in NM, where westerly/downslope flow and lee troughing will favor locally dry/breezy conditions during the afternoon. ..Weinman.. 01/21/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An arctic air mass will begin to infiltrate the northern and central Plains on Thursday, limiting the fire-weather risk across much of the CONUS. The only exception will be in the lee of the southern Rockies in NM, where westerly/downslope flow and lee troughing will favor locally dry/breezy conditions during the afternoon. ..Weinman.. 01/21/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A northwesterly jet streak will overspread the northern/central Plains today, while a related cold front moves across the region. Along/immediately ahead of the front, breezy/gusty northwesterly surface winds and around 25 percent RH may yield locally elevated fire-weather conditions across parts of southeast WY, southwest NE, and northeast CO. However, the overall risk should be spatially and temporally limited by the southward-moving cold front. Farther south, enhanced northwesterly flow aloft and related lee troughing over the central High Plains will also lead to locally dry/breezy conditions in the immediate lee of the Front Range and Sangre de Cristo Mountains in CO and northern NM. ..Weinman.. 01/21/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A northwesterly jet streak will overspread the northern/central Plains today, while a related cold front moves across the region. Along/immediately ahead of the front, breezy/gusty northwesterly surface winds and around 25 percent RH may yield locally elevated fire-weather conditions across parts of southeast WY, southwest NE, and northeast CO. However, the overall risk should be spatially and temporally limited by the southward-moving cold front. Farther south, enhanced northwesterly flow aloft and related lee troughing over the central High Plains will also lead to locally dry/breezy conditions in the immediate lee of the Front Range and Sangre de Cristo Mountains in CO and northern NM. ..Weinman.. 01/21/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A northwesterly jet streak will overspread the northern/central Plains today, while a related cold front moves across the region. Along/immediately ahead of the front, breezy/gusty northwesterly surface winds and around 25 percent RH may yield locally elevated fire-weather conditions across parts of southeast WY, southwest NE, and northeast CO. However, the overall risk should be spatially and temporally limited by the southward-moving cold front. Farther south, enhanced northwesterly flow aloft and related lee troughing over the central High Plains will also lead to locally dry/breezy conditions in the immediate lee of the Front Range and Sangre de Cristo Mountains in CO and northern NM. ..Weinman.. 01/21/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A northwesterly jet streak will overspread the northern/central Plains today, while a related cold front moves across the region. Along/immediately ahead of the front, breezy/gusty northwesterly surface winds and around 25 percent RH may yield locally elevated fire-weather conditions across parts of southeast WY, southwest NE, and northeast CO. However, the overall risk should be spatially and temporally limited by the southward-moving cold front. Farther south, enhanced northwesterly flow aloft and related lee troughing over the central High Plains will also lead to locally dry/breezy conditions in the immediate lee of the Front Range and Sangre de Cristo Mountains in CO and northern NM. ..Weinman.. 01/21/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0114 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across parts of Texas on Friday. ...Synopsis... An upper shortwave trough offshore southern CA and northern Baja will quickly eject east to northwest Mexico and the Southwest on Friday/Friday night. This will result in increasing southwesterly mid/upper flow across the southern Plains as an arctic cold front plunges southward across TX. Modest Gulf moisture will be in place ahead of the front across portions of southern TX and the TX Coastal Plain. As temperatures aloft cool and warm advection in the midlevels overspreads the southward-advancing cold front, isolated thunderstorms will be possible. A few lightning flashes could even accompany winter precipitation as the arctic airmass begins to filter southward through the period. Severe storms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 01/21/2026 Read more