SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 PM CST Tue Jan 20 2026 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Central High Plains... Broad northwesterly flow over the southern Rockies and lee surface trough development across the central High Plains is expected Wednesday. This will support localized dry and breezy downslope westerly winds along the foothills and adjacent high plains of CO Front Range and Sangre De Cristo Mountains into north-central NM. Elevated fire weather conditions are likely to be limited to favored terrain gaps where sustained winds of around 15 mph with higher gusts align with RH in the 15-20% range and receptive fuels. Farther north, another cold front moves into the Central Plains Wednesday, bringing gusty northwest winds of 15-20 mph to far northeastern CO and western NE. Increasing cloud cover, cooler temperatures and RH reductions between 20-25% should limit overall fire weather threat. Nonetheless, the breezy winds along with fuels that remain quite receptive could bring a localized and brief elevated fire weather threat to southeast WY, far northeastern CO and southwestern NE Wednesday. ..Williams.. 01/20/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0145 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026/ ...Synopsis... Fire-weather concerns are minimal on Wednesday, as a cold air mass begins to infiltrate the central U.S. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 PM CST Tue Jan 20 2026 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Central High Plains... Broad northwesterly flow over the southern Rockies and lee surface trough development across the central High Plains is expected Wednesday. This will support localized dry and breezy downslope westerly winds along the foothills and adjacent high plains of CO Front Range and Sangre De Cristo Mountains into north-central NM. Elevated fire weather conditions are likely to be limited to favored terrain gaps where sustained winds of around 15 mph with higher gusts align with RH in the 15-20% range and receptive fuels. Farther north, another cold front moves into the Central Plains Wednesday, bringing gusty northwest winds of 15-20 mph to far northeastern CO and western NE. Increasing cloud cover, cooler temperatures and RH reductions between 20-25% should limit overall fire weather threat. Nonetheless, the breezy winds along with fuels that remain quite receptive could bring a localized and brief elevated fire weather threat to southeast WY, far northeastern CO and southwestern NE Wednesday. ..Williams.. 01/20/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0145 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026/ ...Synopsis... Fire-weather concerns are minimal on Wednesday, as a cold air mass begins to infiltrate the central U.S. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 PM CST Tue Jan 20 2026 Valid 202000Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. today or tonight. ...20Z Update... No changes are needed to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 01/20/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0953 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026/ ...Discussion... A prominent longwave trough will remain entrenched from the Rockies to the western Atlantic, with a general prevalence of cold/dry continental trajectories and surface high pressure over the eastern third of the CONUS. Airmass modification will occur with a modest increase in low-level moisture toward coastal Texas tonight. However, instability is expected to remain too limited to support thunderstorms through tonight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 PM CST Tue Jan 20 2026 Valid 202000Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. today or tonight. ...20Z Update... No changes are needed to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 01/20/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0953 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026/ ...Discussion... A prominent longwave trough will remain entrenched from the Rockies to the western Atlantic, with a general prevalence of cold/dry continental trajectories and surface high pressure over the eastern third of the CONUS. Airmass modification will occur with a modest increase in low-level moisture toward coastal Texas tonight. However, instability is expected to remain too limited to support thunderstorms through tonight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 PM CST Tue Jan 20 2026 Valid 202000Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. today or tonight. ...20Z Update... No changes are needed to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 01/20/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0953 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026/ ...Discussion... A prominent longwave trough will remain entrenched from the Rockies to the western Atlantic, with a general prevalence of cold/dry continental trajectories and surface high pressure over the eastern third of the CONUS. Airmass modification will occur with a modest increase in low-level moisture toward coastal Texas tonight. However, instability is expected to remain too limited to support thunderstorms through tonight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 PM CST Tue Jan 20 2026 Valid 202000Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. today or tonight. ...20Z Update... No changes are needed to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 01/20/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0953 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026/ ...Discussion... A prominent longwave trough will remain entrenched from the Rockies to the western Atlantic, with a general prevalence of cold/dry continental trajectories and surface high pressure over the eastern third of the CONUS. Airmass modification will occur with a modest increase in low-level moisture toward coastal Texas tonight. However, instability is expected to remain too limited to support thunderstorms through tonight. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 PM CST Tue Jan 20 2026 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Aside from the risk for a couple of thunderstorms near southern Florida Atlantic coastal areas, potential for thunderstorms appears minimal across much of the U.S. Thursday through Thursday night. ...Discussion... Models indicate that a significant short wave trough emanating from the Arctic latitudes will continue digging across and southeast of the central Canadian/U.S. border through this period, reinforcing broad, cold mid-level troughing across the northern U.S. Great Plains through middle and northern Atlantic Seaboard. In lower latitudes, flow is forecast to remain broadly cyclonic as far south as the northern Gulf Basin, but with a continued slow/subtle warming in mid-levels across much of the Gulf Coast states, downstream of a slowly digging mid-level low offshore of the southern California/northern Baja coast. It appears that the modest and compact mid-level cold core of this low will remain offshore through at least this period, as a sharp upstream ridge builds a bit further northward through the mid-latitude eastern Pacific. Beneath this regime, it appears that the primary frontal zone may remain quasi-stationary across the Carolinas through northern portions of the eastern Gulf Coast states. However, some further southward advancement is possible across the Ark-La-Miss and central Texas by late Thursday night, as a prominent cold surface ridge continues to build along an axis across the Canadian Prairies through middle and lower Missouri Valley. Some further low-level moistening is possible to the south of this front, off a slowly modifying Gulf and southwestern Atlantic boundary layer. However, beneath slowly warming mid-levels, with weak mid/upper support for convective development, the risk for thunderstorms appears limited Thursday through Thursday night. ...Southern Florida... A consensus of latest available model output, ranging from ECENS and GEFS convective precipitation forecasts to NAM/Rapid Refresh forecast soundings and NAM/RRFS convection allowing guidance, suggests that at least minimum threshold thunderstorm probabilities may become focused during this period in the vicinity of weak surface troughing developing near southern Florida Atlantic coastal areas. This appears possible in response to increasing boundary-layer destabilization and convergence, perhaps aided by forcing associated with weak perturbations within the subtropical westerlies. ..Kerr.. 01/20/2026 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 PM CST Tue Jan 20 2026 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Aside from the risk for a couple of thunderstorms near southern Florida Atlantic coastal areas, potential for thunderstorms appears minimal across much of the U.S. Thursday through Thursday night. ...Discussion... Models indicate that a significant short wave trough emanating from the Arctic latitudes will continue digging across and southeast of the central Canadian/U.S. border through this period, reinforcing broad, cold mid-level troughing across the northern U.S. Great Plains through middle and northern Atlantic Seaboard. In lower latitudes, flow is forecast to remain broadly cyclonic as far south as the northern Gulf Basin, but with a continued slow/subtle warming in mid-levels across much of the Gulf Coast states, downstream of a slowly digging mid-level low offshore of the southern California/northern Baja coast. It appears that the modest and compact mid-level cold core of this low will remain offshore through at least this period, as a sharp upstream ridge builds a bit further northward through the mid-latitude eastern Pacific. Beneath this regime, it appears that the primary frontal zone may remain quasi-stationary across the Carolinas through northern portions of the eastern Gulf Coast states. However, some further southward advancement is possible across the Ark-La-Miss and central Texas by late Thursday night, as a prominent cold surface ridge continues to build along an axis across the Canadian Prairies through middle and lower Missouri Valley. Some further low-level moistening is possible to the south of this front, off a slowly modifying Gulf and southwestern Atlantic boundary layer. However, beneath slowly warming mid-levels, with weak mid/upper support for convective development, the risk for thunderstorms appears limited Thursday through Thursday night. ...Southern Florida... A consensus of latest available model output, ranging from ECENS and GEFS convective precipitation forecasts to NAM/Rapid Refresh forecast soundings and NAM/RRFS convection allowing guidance, suggests that at least minimum threshold thunderstorm probabilities may become focused during this period in the vicinity of weak surface troughing developing near southern Florida Atlantic coastal areas. This appears possible in response to increasing boundary-layer destabilization and convergence, perhaps aided by forcing associated with weak perturbations within the subtropical westerlies. ..Kerr.. 01/20/2026 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 PM CST Tue Jan 20 2026 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Aside from the risk for a couple of thunderstorms near southern Florida Atlantic coastal areas, potential for thunderstorms appears minimal across much of the U.S. Thursday through Thursday night. ...Discussion... Models indicate that a significant short wave trough emanating from the Arctic latitudes will continue digging across and southeast of the central Canadian/U.S. border through this period, reinforcing broad, cold mid-level troughing across the northern U.S. Great Plains through middle and northern Atlantic Seaboard. In lower latitudes, flow is forecast to remain broadly cyclonic as far south as the northern Gulf Basin, but with a continued slow/subtle warming in mid-levels across much of the Gulf Coast states, downstream of a slowly digging mid-level low offshore of the southern California/northern Baja coast. It appears that the modest and compact mid-level cold core of this low will remain offshore through at least this period, as a sharp upstream ridge builds a bit further northward through the mid-latitude eastern Pacific. Beneath this regime, it appears that the primary frontal zone may remain quasi-stationary across the Carolinas through northern portions of the eastern Gulf Coast states. However, some further southward advancement is possible across the Ark-La-Miss and central Texas by late Thursday night, as a prominent cold surface ridge continues to build along an axis across the Canadian Prairies through middle and lower Missouri Valley. Some further low-level moistening is possible to the south of this front, off a slowly modifying Gulf and southwestern Atlantic boundary layer. However, beneath slowly warming mid-levels, with weak mid/upper support for convective development, the risk for thunderstorms appears limited Thursday through Thursday night. ...Southern Florida... A consensus of latest available model output, ranging from ECENS and GEFS convective precipitation forecasts to NAM/Rapid Refresh forecast soundings and NAM/RRFS convection allowing guidance, suggests that at least minimum threshold thunderstorm probabilities may become focused during this period in the vicinity of weak surface troughing developing near southern Florida Atlantic coastal areas. This appears possible in response to increasing boundary-layer destabilization and convergence, perhaps aided by forcing associated with weak perturbations within the subtropical westerlies. ..Kerr.. 01/20/2026 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 PM CST Tue Jan 20 2026 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Aside from the risk for a couple of thunderstorms near southern Florida Atlantic coastal areas, potential for thunderstorms appears minimal across much of the U.S. Thursday through Thursday night. ...Discussion... Models indicate that a significant short wave trough emanating from the Arctic latitudes will continue digging across and southeast of the central Canadian/U.S. border through this period, reinforcing broad, cold mid-level troughing across the northern U.S. Great Plains through middle and northern Atlantic Seaboard. In lower latitudes, flow is forecast to remain broadly cyclonic as far south as the northern Gulf Basin, but with a continued slow/subtle warming in mid-levels across much of the Gulf Coast states, downstream of a slowly digging mid-level low offshore of the southern California/northern Baja coast. It appears that the modest and compact mid-level cold core of this low will remain offshore through at least this period, as a sharp upstream ridge builds a bit further northward through the mid-latitude eastern Pacific. Beneath this regime, it appears that the primary frontal zone may remain quasi-stationary across the Carolinas through northern portions of the eastern Gulf Coast states. However, some further southward advancement is possible across the Ark-La-Miss and central Texas by late Thursday night, as a prominent cold surface ridge continues to build along an axis across the Canadian Prairies through middle and lower Missouri Valley. Some further low-level moistening is possible to the south of this front, off a slowly modifying Gulf and southwestern Atlantic boundary layer. However, beneath slowly warming mid-levels, with weak mid/upper support for convective development, the risk for thunderstorms appears limited Thursday through Thursday night. ...Southern Florida... A consensus of latest available model output, ranging from ECENS and GEFS convective precipitation forecasts to NAM/Rapid Refresh forecast soundings and NAM/RRFS convection allowing guidance, suggests that at least minimum threshold thunderstorm probabilities may become focused during this period in the vicinity of weak surface troughing developing near southern Florida Atlantic coastal areas. This appears possible in response to increasing boundary-layer destabilization and convergence, perhaps aided by forcing associated with weak perturbations within the subtropical westerlies. ..Kerr.. 01/20/2026 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1059 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026 Valid 201700Z - 211200Z Broad northwesterly flow aloft ahead of an approaching mid-level short wave will persist over the Southern Rockies. A deepening surface low currently across the northern High Plains is still expected to drop southward into southeastern CO by late afternoon. Resultant downslope flow in the lee of the Rockies is supporting current RH values below 10 percent across south-central CO. The dry conditions and receptive fuels will combine with west winds of 15-20 mph to bring a elevated fire weather conditions to locations in the lee of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains in southern CO through this afternoon. A broader east-northwest wind field of 15-20 mph across northeastern CO, southwestern NE, and northwest KS along with RH reductions in the 15-20 percent range amid receptive fuels will support an elevated fire weather threat today. Veering winds associated with an advancing cold front will move into northeast CO and vicinity by late afternoon, allowing for colder temperatures and rising RH within northerly flow to diminish fire weather concerns this evening. ..Williams.. 01/20/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0145 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026/ ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude shortwave trough and accompanying speed maximum will cross the central Rockies during the afternoon, while an attendant surface low tracks south-southeastward along the northern/central High Plains. Related downslope flow will yield 10-15 percent RH across much of the central High Plains, where around 20 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) are expected. These dry/windy conditions will favor elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions over northeastern CO, southwestern NE, and northwest KS. A separate corridor of elevated fire-weather conditions is expected in the lee of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains in southern CO, with locally critical conditions possible within the gap flow areas. Between these two corridors, recent snowfall should limit fire-weather concerns. Elsewhere, modestly breezy northeasterly surface winds are expected amid a dry antecedent air mass across parts of the western and central FL Peninsula, where locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1059 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026 Valid 201700Z - 211200Z Broad northwesterly flow aloft ahead of an approaching mid-level short wave will persist over the Southern Rockies. A deepening surface low currently across the northern High Plains is still expected to drop southward into southeastern CO by late afternoon. Resultant downslope flow in the lee of the Rockies is supporting current RH values below 10 percent across south-central CO. The dry conditions and receptive fuels will combine with west winds of 15-20 mph to bring a elevated fire weather conditions to locations in the lee of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains in southern CO through this afternoon. A broader east-northwest wind field of 15-20 mph across northeastern CO, southwestern NE, and northwest KS along with RH reductions in the 15-20 percent range amid receptive fuels will support an elevated fire weather threat today. Veering winds associated with an advancing cold front will move into northeast CO and vicinity by late afternoon, allowing for colder temperatures and rising RH within northerly flow to diminish fire weather concerns this evening. ..Williams.. 01/20/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0145 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026/ ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude shortwave trough and accompanying speed maximum will cross the central Rockies during the afternoon, while an attendant surface low tracks south-southeastward along the northern/central High Plains. Related downslope flow will yield 10-15 percent RH across much of the central High Plains, where around 20 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) are expected. These dry/windy conditions will favor elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions over northeastern CO, southwestern NE, and northwest KS. A separate corridor of elevated fire-weather conditions is expected in the lee of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains in southern CO, with locally critical conditions possible within the gap flow areas. Between these two corridors, recent snowfall should limit fire-weather concerns. Elsewhere, modestly breezy northeasterly surface winds are expected amid a dry antecedent air mass across parts of the western and central FL Peninsula, where locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1059 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026 Valid 201700Z - 211200Z Broad northwesterly flow aloft ahead of an approaching mid-level short wave will persist over the Southern Rockies. A deepening surface low currently across the northern High Plains is still expected to drop southward into southeastern CO by late afternoon. Resultant downslope flow in the lee of the Rockies is supporting current RH values below 10 percent across south-central CO. The dry conditions and receptive fuels will combine with west winds of 15-20 mph to bring a elevated fire weather conditions to locations in the lee of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains in southern CO through this afternoon. A broader east-northwest wind field of 15-20 mph across northeastern CO, southwestern NE, and northwest KS along with RH reductions in the 15-20 percent range amid receptive fuels will support an elevated fire weather threat today. Veering winds associated with an advancing cold front will move into northeast CO and vicinity by late afternoon, allowing for colder temperatures and rising RH within northerly flow to diminish fire weather concerns this evening. ..Williams.. 01/20/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0145 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026/ ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude shortwave trough and accompanying speed maximum will cross the central Rockies during the afternoon, while an attendant surface low tracks south-southeastward along the northern/central High Plains. Related downslope flow will yield 10-15 percent RH across much of the central High Plains, where around 20 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) are expected. These dry/windy conditions will favor elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions over northeastern CO, southwestern NE, and northwest KS. A separate corridor of elevated fire-weather conditions is expected in the lee of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains in southern CO, with locally critical conditions possible within the gap flow areas. Between these two corridors, recent snowfall should limit fire-weather concerns. Elsewhere, modestly breezy northeasterly surface winds are expected amid a dry antecedent air mass across parts of the western and central FL Peninsula, where locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1059 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026 Valid 201700Z - 211200Z Broad northwesterly flow aloft ahead of an approaching mid-level short wave will persist over the Southern Rockies. A deepening surface low currently across the northern High Plains is still expected to drop southward into southeastern CO by late afternoon. Resultant downslope flow in the lee of the Rockies is supporting current RH values below 10 percent across south-central CO. The dry conditions and receptive fuels will combine with west winds of 15-20 mph to bring a elevated fire weather conditions to locations in the lee of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains in southern CO through this afternoon. A broader east-northwest wind field of 15-20 mph across northeastern CO, southwestern NE, and northwest KS along with RH reductions in the 15-20 percent range amid receptive fuels will support an elevated fire weather threat today. Veering winds associated with an advancing cold front will move into northeast CO and vicinity by late afternoon, allowing for colder temperatures and rising RH within northerly flow to diminish fire weather concerns this evening. ..Williams.. 01/20/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0145 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026/ ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude shortwave trough and accompanying speed maximum will cross the central Rockies during the afternoon, while an attendant surface low tracks south-southeastward along the northern/central High Plains. Related downslope flow will yield 10-15 percent RH across much of the central High Plains, where around 20 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) are expected. These dry/windy conditions will favor elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions over northeastern CO, southwestern NE, and northwest KS. A separate corridor of elevated fire-weather conditions is expected in the lee of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains in southern CO, with locally critical conditions possible within the gap flow areas. Between these two corridors, recent snowfall should limit fire-weather concerns. Elsewhere, modestly breezy northeasterly surface winds are expected amid a dry antecedent air mass across parts of the western and central FL Peninsula, where locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1059 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026 Valid 201700Z - 211200Z Broad northwesterly flow aloft ahead of an approaching mid-level short wave will persist over the Southern Rockies. A deepening surface low currently across the northern High Plains is still expected to drop southward into southeastern CO by late afternoon. Resultant downslope flow in the lee of the Rockies is supporting current RH values below 10 percent across south-central CO. The dry conditions and receptive fuels will combine with west winds of 15-20 mph to bring a elevated fire weather conditions to locations in the lee of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains in southern CO through this afternoon. A broader east-northwest wind field of 15-20 mph across northeastern CO, southwestern NE, and northwest KS along with RH reductions in the 15-20 percent range amid receptive fuels will support an elevated fire weather threat today. Veering winds associated with an advancing cold front will move into northeast CO and vicinity by late afternoon, allowing for colder temperatures and rising RH within northerly flow to diminish fire weather concerns this evening. ..Williams.. 01/20/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0145 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026/ ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude shortwave trough and accompanying speed maximum will cross the central Rockies during the afternoon, while an attendant surface low tracks south-southeastward along the northern/central High Plains. Related downslope flow will yield 10-15 percent RH across much of the central High Plains, where around 20 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) are expected. These dry/windy conditions will favor elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions over northeastern CO, southwestern NE, and northwest KS. A separate corridor of elevated fire-weather conditions is expected in the lee of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains in southern CO, with locally critical conditions possible within the gap flow areas. Between these two corridors, recent snowfall should limit fire-weather concerns. Elsewhere, modestly breezy northeasterly surface winds are expected amid a dry antecedent air mass across parts of the western and central FL Peninsula, where locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1045 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered weak thunderstorm activity is possible Wednesday into Wednesday evening across parts of southeastern Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley. ...Discussion... While an initially prominent mid-level ridge, centered offshore of the Pacific Northwest/British Columbia coast into Alaska, will undergo more notable weakening through this period, models indicate that large-scale downstream troughing will generally be maintained across much of interior and eastern North America. It appears that this will be reinforced by a strong short wave trough emerging from the Canadian Arctic latitudes, before digging around the western periphery of Hudson Bay, toward the central international border area. This is forecast to be accompanied by modest cyclogenesis across and northeast of the Great Lakes, and a more notable reinforcing cold intrusion into the Ohio and Missouri Valleys, in the wake of a preceding one reaching the Mid Atlantic, northern Gulf Coast states and Texas Gulf coastal plain by 12Z Wednesday At the same time, it still appears that much of the southern tier of the U.S. will continue to come under the increasing influence of westerlies emanating from the southern mid- to subtropical latitudes of the eastern Pacific. Within this regime, a notable developing mid-level low is forecast to slowly dig toward the southern California/northern Baja coast, downstream of a building short wave ridge over the mid-latitude eastern Pacific. While forecast soundings suggest that this may be preceded by an inland spreading band of weak convection, associated with mid/high-level moisture return from the lower latitude eastern Pacific, the modest and relatively compact mid-level cold core of the low is forecast to remain offshore through this period. This will minimize the risk for boundary-layer destabilization, and any appreciable potential for convection capable of producing lightning, across and inland of coastal areas. Downstream, lower/mid-tropospheric moisture return is likely to continue across parts of southern/eastern Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley Wednesday through Wednesday night. Although, in lower levels, this will be off a still modifying western Gulf boundary layer, it appears that elevated inland moistening, beneath the southern periphery of colder mid-level air slowly retreating to somewhat higher latitudes, will contribute to weak elevated destabilization. Forecast soundings continue to suggest that this may become sufficient to support convection capable of producing lightning, mainly in a corridor from southeast Texas east-northeastward through the lower Mississippi Valley, aided by forcing for ascent associated with one or two short wave perturbations within the lingering cyclonic flow. ..Kerr.. 01/20/2026 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1045 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered weak thunderstorm activity is possible Wednesday into Wednesday evening across parts of southeastern Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley. ...Discussion... While an initially prominent mid-level ridge, centered offshore of the Pacific Northwest/British Columbia coast into Alaska, will undergo more notable weakening through this period, models indicate that large-scale downstream troughing will generally be maintained across much of interior and eastern North America. It appears that this will be reinforced by a strong short wave trough emerging from the Canadian Arctic latitudes, before digging around the western periphery of Hudson Bay, toward the central international border area. This is forecast to be accompanied by modest cyclogenesis across and northeast of the Great Lakes, and a more notable reinforcing cold intrusion into the Ohio and Missouri Valleys, in the wake of a preceding one reaching the Mid Atlantic, northern Gulf Coast states and Texas Gulf coastal plain by 12Z Wednesday At the same time, it still appears that much of the southern tier of the U.S. will continue to come under the increasing influence of westerlies emanating from the southern mid- to subtropical latitudes of the eastern Pacific. Within this regime, a notable developing mid-level low is forecast to slowly dig toward the southern California/northern Baja coast, downstream of a building short wave ridge over the mid-latitude eastern Pacific. While forecast soundings suggest that this may be preceded by an inland spreading band of weak convection, associated with mid/high-level moisture return from the lower latitude eastern Pacific, the modest and relatively compact mid-level cold core of the low is forecast to remain offshore through this period. This will minimize the risk for boundary-layer destabilization, and any appreciable potential for convection capable of producing lightning, across and inland of coastal areas. Downstream, lower/mid-tropospheric moisture return is likely to continue across parts of southern/eastern Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley Wednesday through Wednesday night. Although, in lower levels, this will be off a still modifying western Gulf boundary layer, it appears that elevated inland moistening, beneath the southern periphery of colder mid-level air slowly retreating to somewhat higher latitudes, will contribute to weak elevated destabilization. Forecast soundings continue to suggest that this may become sufficient to support convection capable of producing lightning, mainly in a corridor from southeast Texas east-northeastward through the lower Mississippi Valley, aided by forcing for ascent associated with one or two short wave perturbations within the lingering cyclonic flow. ..Kerr.. 01/20/2026 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1045 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered weak thunderstorm activity is possible Wednesday into Wednesday evening across parts of southeastern Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley. ...Discussion... While an initially prominent mid-level ridge, centered offshore of the Pacific Northwest/British Columbia coast into Alaska, will undergo more notable weakening through this period, models indicate that large-scale downstream troughing will generally be maintained across much of interior and eastern North America. It appears that this will be reinforced by a strong short wave trough emerging from the Canadian Arctic latitudes, before digging around the western periphery of Hudson Bay, toward the central international border area. This is forecast to be accompanied by modest cyclogenesis across and northeast of the Great Lakes, and a more notable reinforcing cold intrusion into the Ohio and Missouri Valleys, in the wake of a preceding one reaching the Mid Atlantic, northern Gulf Coast states and Texas Gulf coastal plain by 12Z Wednesday At the same time, it still appears that much of the southern tier of the U.S. will continue to come under the increasing influence of westerlies emanating from the southern mid- to subtropical latitudes of the eastern Pacific. Within this regime, a notable developing mid-level low is forecast to slowly dig toward the southern California/northern Baja coast, downstream of a building short wave ridge over the mid-latitude eastern Pacific. While forecast soundings suggest that this may be preceded by an inland spreading band of weak convection, associated with mid/high-level moisture return from the lower latitude eastern Pacific, the modest and relatively compact mid-level cold core of the low is forecast to remain offshore through this period. This will minimize the risk for boundary-layer destabilization, and any appreciable potential for convection capable of producing lightning, across and inland of coastal areas. Downstream, lower/mid-tropospheric moisture return is likely to continue across parts of southern/eastern Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley Wednesday through Wednesday night. Although, in lower levels, this will be off a still modifying western Gulf boundary layer, it appears that elevated inland moistening, beneath the southern periphery of colder mid-level air slowly retreating to somewhat higher latitudes, will contribute to weak elevated destabilization. Forecast soundings continue to suggest that this may become sufficient to support convection capable of producing lightning, mainly in a corridor from southeast Texas east-northeastward through the lower Mississippi Valley, aided by forcing for ascent associated with one or two short wave perturbations within the lingering cyclonic flow. ..Kerr.. 01/20/2026 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1045 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered weak thunderstorm activity is possible Wednesday into Wednesday evening across parts of southeastern Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley. ...Discussion... While an initially prominent mid-level ridge, centered offshore of the Pacific Northwest/British Columbia coast into Alaska, will undergo more notable weakening through this period, models indicate that large-scale downstream troughing will generally be maintained across much of interior and eastern North America. It appears that this will be reinforced by a strong short wave trough emerging from the Canadian Arctic latitudes, before digging around the western periphery of Hudson Bay, toward the central international border area. This is forecast to be accompanied by modest cyclogenesis across and northeast of the Great Lakes, and a more notable reinforcing cold intrusion into the Ohio and Missouri Valleys, in the wake of a preceding one reaching the Mid Atlantic, northern Gulf Coast states and Texas Gulf coastal plain by 12Z Wednesday At the same time, it still appears that much of the southern tier of the U.S. will continue to come under the increasing influence of westerlies emanating from the southern mid- to subtropical latitudes of the eastern Pacific. Within this regime, a notable developing mid-level low is forecast to slowly dig toward the southern California/northern Baja coast, downstream of a building short wave ridge over the mid-latitude eastern Pacific. While forecast soundings suggest that this may be preceded by an inland spreading band of weak convection, associated with mid/high-level moisture return from the lower latitude eastern Pacific, the modest and relatively compact mid-level cold core of the low is forecast to remain offshore through this period. This will minimize the risk for boundary-layer destabilization, and any appreciable potential for convection capable of producing lightning, across and inland of coastal areas. Downstream, lower/mid-tropospheric moisture return is likely to continue across parts of southern/eastern Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley Wednesday through Wednesday night. Although, in lower levels, this will be off a still modifying western Gulf boundary layer, it appears that elevated inland moistening, beneath the southern periphery of colder mid-level air slowly retreating to somewhat higher latitudes, will contribute to weak elevated destabilization. Forecast soundings continue to suggest that this may become sufficient to support convection capable of producing lightning, mainly in a corridor from southeast Texas east-northeastward through the lower Mississippi Valley, aided by forcing for ascent associated with one or two short wave perturbations within the lingering cyclonic flow. ..Kerr.. 01/20/2026 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1045 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered weak thunderstorm activity is possible Wednesday into Wednesday evening across parts of southeastern Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley. ...Discussion... While an initially prominent mid-level ridge, centered offshore of the Pacific Northwest/British Columbia coast into Alaska, will undergo more notable weakening through this period, models indicate that large-scale downstream troughing will generally be maintained across much of interior and eastern North America. It appears that this will be reinforced by a strong short wave trough emerging from the Canadian Arctic latitudes, before digging around the western periphery of Hudson Bay, toward the central international border area. This is forecast to be accompanied by modest cyclogenesis across and northeast of the Great Lakes, and a more notable reinforcing cold intrusion into the Ohio and Missouri Valleys, in the wake of a preceding one reaching the Mid Atlantic, northern Gulf Coast states and Texas Gulf coastal plain by 12Z Wednesday At the same time, it still appears that much of the southern tier of the U.S. will continue to come under the increasing influence of westerlies emanating from the southern mid- to subtropical latitudes of the eastern Pacific. Within this regime, a notable developing mid-level low is forecast to slowly dig toward the southern California/northern Baja coast, downstream of a building short wave ridge over the mid-latitude eastern Pacific. While forecast soundings suggest that this may be preceded by an inland spreading band of weak convection, associated with mid/high-level moisture return from the lower latitude eastern Pacific, the modest and relatively compact mid-level cold core of the low is forecast to remain offshore through this period. This will minimize the risk for boundary-layer destabilization, and any appreciable potential for convection capable of producing lightning, across and inland of coastal areas. Downstream, lower/mid-tropospheric moisture return is likely to continue across parts of southern/eastern Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley Wednesday through Wednesday night. Although, in lower levels, this will be off a still modifying western Gulf boundary layer, it appears that elevated inland moistening, beneath the southern periphery of colder mid-level air slowly retreating to somewhat higher latitudes, will contribute to weak elevated destabilization. Forecast soundings continue to suggest that this may become sufficient to support convection capable of producing lightning, mainly in a corridor from southeast Texas east-northeastward through the lower Mississippi Valley, aided by forcing for ascent associated with one or two short wave perturbations within the lingering cyclonic flow. ..Kerr.. 01/20/2026 Read more