SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0114 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across parts of Texas on Friday. ...Synopsis... An upper shortwave trough offshore southern CA and northern Baja will quickly eject east to northwest Mexico and the Southwest on Friday/Friday night. This will result in increasing southwesterly mid/upper flow across the southern Plains as an arctic cold front plunges southward across TX. Modest Gulf moisture will be in place ahead of the front across portions of southern TX and the TX Coastal Plain. As temperatures aloft cool and warm advection in the midlevels overspreads the southward-advancing cold front, isolated thunderstorms will be possible. A few lightning flashes could even accompany winter precipitation as the arctic airmass begins to filter southward through the period. Severe storms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 01/21/2026 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0114 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across parts of Texas on Friday. ...Synopsis... An upper shortwave trough offshore southern CA and northern Baja will quickly eject east to northwest Mexico and the Southwest on Friday/Friday night. This will result in increasing southwesterly mid/upper flow across the southern Plains as an arctic cold front plunges southward across TX. Modest Gulf moisture will be in place ahead of the front across portions of southern TX and the TX Coastal Plain. As temperatures aloft cool and warm advection in the midlevels overspreads the southward-advancing cold front, isolated thunderstorms will be possible. A few lightning flashes could even accompany winter precipitation as the arctic airmass begins to filter southward through the period. Severe storms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 01/21/2026 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0114 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across parts of Texas on Friday. ...Synopsis... An upper shortwave trough offshore southern CA and northern Baja will quickly eject east to northwest Mexico and the Southwest on Friday/Friday night. This will result in increasing southwesterly mid/upper flow across the southern Plains as an arctic cold front plunges southward across TX. Modest Gulf moisture will be in place ahead of the front across portions of southern TX and the TX Coastal Plain. As temperatures aloft cool and warm advection in the midlevels overspreads the southward-advancing cold front, isolated thunderstorms will be possible. A few lightning flashes could even accompany winter precipitation as the arctic airmass begins to filter southward through the period. Severe storms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 01/21/2026 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... Broad upper troughing will persist across most of the CONUS on Thursday. Modified Gulf moisture will be in place across portions of south/southeast TX into the central Gulf Coast and central/southern FL on the southern periphery of strengthening surface high pressure over the Plains and Midwest. Some very modest instability could develop over the southeast FL Peninsula. However, nebulous large-scale ascent and modest lapse rates will limit thunderstorm potential inland. A couple of thunderstorms are possible offshore, but coverage of lightning flashes near the coast appears limited, precluding 10 percent general thunder delineation. Elsewhere, cold and/or stable conditions will preclude thunderstorm activity. ..Leitman.. 01/21/2026 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... Broad upper troughing will persist across most of the CONUS on Thursday. Modified Gulf moisture will be in place across portions of south/southeast TX into the central Gulf Coast and central/southern FL on the southern periphery of strengthening surface high pressure over the Plains and Midwest. Some very modest instability could develop over the southeast FL Peninsula. However, nebulous large-scale ascent and modest lapse rates will limit thunderstorm potential inland. A couple of thunderstorms are possible offshore, but coverage of lightning flashes near the coast appears limited, precluding 10 percent general thunder delineation. Elsewhere, cold and/or stable conditions will preclude thunderstorm activity. ..Leitman.. 01/21/2026 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... Broad upper troughing will persist across most of the CONUS on Thursday. Modified Gulf moisture will be in place across portions of south/southeast TX into the central Gulf Coast and central/southern FL on the southern periphery of strengthening surface high pressure over the Plains and Midwest. Some very modest instability could develop over the southeast FL Peninsula. However, nebulous large-scale ascent and modest lapse rates will limit thunderstorm potential inland. A couple of thunderstorms are possible offshore, but coverage of lightning flashes near the coast appears limited, precluding 10 percent general thunder delineation. Elsewhere, cold and/or stable conditions will preclude thunderstorm activity. ..Leitman.. 01/21/2026 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... Broad upper troughing will persist across most of the CONUS on Thursday. Modified Gulf moisture will be in place across portions of south/southeast TX into the central Gulf Coast and central/southern FL on the southern periphery of strengthening surface high pressure over the Plains and Midwest. Some very modest instability could develop over the southeast FL Peninsula. However, nebulous large-scale ascent and modest lapse rates will limit thunderstorm potential inland. A couple of thunderstorms are possible offshore, but coverage of lightning flashes near the coast appears limited, precluding 10 percent general thunder delineation. Elsewhere, cold and/or stable conditions will preclude thunderstorm activity. ..Leitman.. 01/21/2026 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 PM CST Tue Jan 20 2026 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected across parts of the western and central Gulf Coast states this afternoon and evening. ...DISCUSSION... A long-wave cyclonic flow pattern will be in place today across the U.S, as an embedded mid-level shortwave trough moves across the south-central U.S. At the surface, a cold front will advance southeastward into the western and central Gulf Coast states today. Ahead of the front, low-level moisture and instability will be sufficient for isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms. However, no severe threat is expected to develop. Elsewhere across the continental U.S., thunderstorms are not forecast today or tonight. ..Broyles/Weinman.. 01/21/2026 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 PM CST Tue Jan 20 2026 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected across parts of the western and central Gulf Coast states this afternoon and evening. ...DISCUSSION... A long-wave cyclonic flow pattern will be in place today across the U.S, as an embedded mid-level shortwave trough moves across the south-central U.S. At the surface, a cold front will advance southeastward into the western and central Gulf Coast states today. Ahead of the front, low-level moisture and instability will be sufficient for isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms. However, no severe threat is expected to develop. Elsewhere across the continental U.S., thunderstorms are not forecast today or tonight. ..Broyles/Weinman.. 01/21/2026 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 PM CST Tue Jan 20 2026 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected across parts of the western and central Gulf Coast states this afternoon and evening. ...DISCUSSION... A long-wave cyclonic flow pattern will be in place today across the U.S, as an embedded mid-level shortwave trough moves across the south-central U.S. At the surface, a cold front will advance southeastward into the western and central Gulf Coast states today. Ahead of the front, low-level moisture and instability will be sufficient for isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms. However, no severe threat is expected to develop. Elsewhere across the continental U.S., thunderstorms are not forecast today or tonight. ..Broyles/Weinman.. 01/21/2026 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 PM CST Tue Jan 20 2026 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected across parts of the western and central Gulf Coast states this afternoon and evening. ...DISCUSSION... A long-wave cyclonic flow pattern will be in place today across the U.S, as an embedded mid-level shortwave trough moves across the south-central U.S. At the surface, a cold front will advance southeastward into the western and central Gulf Coast states today. Ahead of the front, low-level moisture and instability will be sufficient for isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms. However, no severe threat is expected to develop. Elsewhere across the continental U.S., thunderstorms are not forecast today or tonight. ..Broyles/Weinman.. 01/21/2026 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0655 PM CST Tue Jan 20 2026 Valid 210100Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. today or tonight. ...DISCUSSION... A large-scale cyclonic flow pattern will remain in place over the U.S. this evening and tonight. At the surface, a large area of high pressure will be located from the Gulf Coast states northeastward to the Eastern Seaboard. A dry and cold airmass will remain over much of the continental U.S. through tonight, making conditions unfavorable for thunderstorms. ..Broyles.. 01/21/2026 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0655 PM CST Tue Jan 20 2026 Valid 210100Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. today or tonight. ...DISCUSSION... A large-scale cyclonic flow pattern will remain in place over the U.S. this evening and tonight. At the surface, a large area of high pressure will be located from the Gulf Coast states northeastward to the Eastern Seaboard. A dry and cold airmass will remain over much of the continental U.S. through tonight, making conditions unfavorable for thunderstorms. ..Broyles.. 01/21/2026 Read more

No watches are valid as of Tue Jan 20 22:01:01 UTC 2026.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Jan 20 22:01:01 UTC 2026.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 PM CST Tue Jan 20 2026 Valid 221200Z - 281200Z Fire weather concerns are likely to remain minimal through early next week across most of the contiguous U.S. An arctic air mass will begin filtering into the northern U.S. on Day 3/Thursday, reaching the Gulf and Atlantic Coast by Day 4/Friday, while an upper-level trough facilitates bringing increasing East Pacific and Gulf moisture into the Southwest and Southern Plains. A broad swath of mixed precipitation, including significant snow accumulations, will encompass much of the southern U.S. Day 4/Friday through Day 8/Tuesday mitigating fire weather concerns, particularly across the southern High Plains where fuels remain dry. The FL Peninsula and portions of the central Plains are likely to receive minimal precipitation, aiding in keeping fuels on the drier side through the weekend. ..Williams.. 01/20/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 PM CST Tue Jan 20 2026 Valid 221200Z - 281200Z Fire weather concerns are likely to remain minimal through early next week across most of the contiguous U.S. An arctic air mass will begin filtering into the northern U.S. on Day 3/Thursday, reaching the Gulf and Atlantic Coast by Day 4/Friday, while an upper-level trough facilitates bringing increasing East Pacific and Gulf moisture into the Southwest and Southern Plains. A broad swath of mixed precipitation, including significant snow accumulations, will encompass much of the southern U.S. Day 4/Friday through Day 8/Tuesday mitigating fire weather concerns, particularly across the southern High Plains where fuels remain dry. The FL Peninsula and portions of the central Plains are likely to receive minimal precipitation, aiding in keeping fuels on the drier side through the weekend. ..Williams.. 01/20/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 PM CST Tue Jan 20 2026 Valid 221200Z - 281200Z Fire weather concerns are likely to remain minimal through early next week across most of the contiguous U.S. An arctic air mass will begin filtering into the northern U.S. on Day 3/Thursday, reaching the Gulf and Atlantic Coast by Day 4/Friday, while an upper-level trough facilitates bringing increasing East Pacific and Gulf moisture into the Southwest and Southern Plains. A broad swath of mixed precipitation, including significant snow accumulations, will encompass much of the southern U.S. Day 4/Friday through Day 8/Tuesday mitigating fire weather concerns, particularly across the southern High Plains where fuels remain dry. The FL Peninsula and portions of the central Plains are likely to receive minimal precipitation, aiding in keeping fuels on the drier side through the weekend. ..Williams.. 01/20/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 PM CST Tue Jan 20 2026 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Central High Plains... Broad northwesterly flow over the southern Rockies and lee surface trough development across the central High Plains is expected Wednesday. This will support localized dry and breezy downslope westerly winds along the foothills and adjacent high plains of CO Front Range and Sangre De Cristo Mountains into north-central NM. Elevated fire weather conditions are likely to be limited to favored terrain gaps where sustained winds of around 15 mph with higher gusts align with RH in the 15-20% range and receptive fuels. Farther north, another cold front moves into the Central Plains Wednesday, bringing gusty northwest winds of 15-20 mph to far northeastern CO and western NE. Increasing cloud cover, cooler temperatures and RH reductions between 20-25% should limit overall fire weather threat. Nonetheless, the breezy winds along with fuels that remain quite receptive could bring a localized and brief elevated fire weather threat to southeast WY, far northeastern CO and southwestern NE Wednesday. ..Williams.. 01/20/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0145 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026/ ...Synopsis... Fire-weather concerns are minimal on Wednesday, as a cold air mass begins to infiltrate the central U.S. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 PM CST Tue Jan 20 2026 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Central High Plains... Broad northwesterly flow over the southern Rockies and lee surface trough development across the central High Plains is expected Wednesday. This will support localized dry and breezy downslope westerly winds along the foothills and adjacent high plains of CO Front Range and Sangre De Cristo Mountains into north-central NM. Elevated fire weather conditions are likely to be limited to favored terrain gaps where sustained winds of around 15 mph with higher gusts align with RH in the 15-20% range and receptive fuels. Farther north, another cold front moves into the Central Plains Wednesday, bringing gusty northwest winds of 15-20 mph to far northeastern CO and western NE. Increasing cloud cover, cooler temperatures and RH reductions between 20-25% should limit overall fire weather threat. Nonetheless, the breezy winds along with fuels that remain quite receptive could bring a localized and brief elevated fire weather threat to southeast WY, far northeastern CO and southwestern NE Wednesday. ..Williams.. 01/20/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0145 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026/ ...Synopsis... Fire-weather concerns are minimal on Wednesday, as a cold air mass begins to infiltrate the central U.S. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more