SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026 Valid 212000Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms should occur across parts of east/southeast Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley today and tonight. ...20Z Update... No changes are needed to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 01/21/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1017 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026/ ...ArkLaTex Region... The persistent upper trough over the eastern states will maintain fast cyclonic flow aloft over the Gulf coast states today. A surface cold front will sag southward across parts of TX/AR/LA and eventually into MS. The air mass ahead of the front is moderately moist, with MUCAPE of less than 500 J/kg. This will result in occasional clusters of thunderstorms, but no severe storms are anticipated. ...South FL... A subtle southern-stream shortwave trough will move across the Gulf and approach FL late tonight. This will result in an increase in the risk of isolated thunderstorms over southeast FL - mainly after midnight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026 Valid 212000Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms should occur across parts of east/southeast Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley today and tonight. ...20Z Update... No changes are needed to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 01/21/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1017 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026/ ...ArkLaTex Region... The persistent upper trough over the eastern states will maintain fast cyclonic flow aloft over the Gulf coast states today. A surface cold front will sag southward across parts of TX/AR/LA and eventually into MS. The air mass ahead of the front is moderately moist, with MUCAPE of less than 500 J/kg. This will result in occasional clusters of thunderstorms, but no severe storms are anticipated. ...South FL... A subtle southern-stream shortwave trough will move across the Gulf and approach FL late tonight. This will result in an increase in the risk of isolated thunderstorms over southeast FL - mainly after midnight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026 Valid 212000Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms should occur across parts of east/southeast Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley today and tonight. ...20Z Update... No changes are needed to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 01/21/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1017 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026/ ...ArkLaTex Region... The persistent upper trough over the eastern states will maintain fast cyclonic flow aloft over the Gulf coast states today. A surface cold front will sag southward across parts of TX/AR/LA and eventually into MS. The air mass ahead of the front is moderately moist, with MUCAPE of less than 500 J/kg. This will result in occasional clusters of thunderstorms, but no severe storms are anticipated. ...South FL... A subtle southern-stream shortwave trough will move across the Gulf and approach FL late tonight. This will result in an increase in the risk of isolated thunderstorms over southeast FL - mainly after midnight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026 Valid 212000Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms should occur across parts of east/southeast Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley today and tonight. ...20Z Update... No changes are needed to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 01/21/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1017 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026/ ...ArkLaTex Region... The persistent upper trough over the eastern states will maintain fast cyclonic flow aloft over the Gulf coast states today. A surface cold front will sag southward across parts of TX/AR/LA and eventually into MS. The air mass ahead of the front is moderately moist, with MUCAPE of less than 500 J/kg. This will result in occasional clusters of thunderstorms, but no severe storms are anticipated. ...South FL... A subtle southern-stream shortwave trough will move across the Gulf and approach FL late tonight. This will result in an increase in the risk of isolated thunderstorms over southeast FL - mainly after midnight. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... An intensely cold air mass accompanied by expanding cloud cover and light precipitation will move into the northern/central plains and Upper Midwest Thursday limiting fire weather concerns. Locally breezy downslope winds and drying will continue to impact locations in immediate leeward locations and foothills of the Rockies across southern CO and NM, although cloud cover and marginally dry fuels will limit a larger fire weather threat. ..Williams.. 01/21/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0148 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026/ ...Synopsis... An arctic air mass will begin to infiltrate the northern and central Plains on Thursday, limiting the fire-weather risk across much of the CONUS. The only exception will be in the lee of the southern Rockies in NM, where westerly/downslope flow and lee troughing will favor locally dry/breezy conditions during the afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... An intensely cold air mass accompanied by expanding cloud cover and light precipitation will move into the northern/central plains and Upper Midwest Thursday limiting fire weather concerns. Locally breezy downslope winds and drying will continue to impact locations in immediate leeward locations and foothills of the Rockies across southern CO and NM, although cloud cover and marginally dry fuels will limit a larger fire weather threat. ..Williams.. 01/21/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0148 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026/ ...Synopsis... An arctic air mass will begin to infiltrate the northern and central Plains on Thursday, limiting the fire-weather risk across much of the CONUS. The only exception will be in the lee of the southern Rockies in NM, where westerly/downslope flow and lee troughing will favor locally dry/breezy conditions during the afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... An intensely cold air mass accompanied by expanding cloud cover and light precipitation will move into the northern/central plains and Upper Midwest Thursday limiting fire weather concerns. Locally breezy downslope winds and drying will continue to impact locations in immediate leeward locations and foothills of the Rockies across southern CO and NM, although cloud cover and marginally dry fuels will limit a larger fire weather threat. ..Williams.. 01/21/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0148 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026/ ...Synopsis... An arctic air mass will begin to infiltrate the northern and central Plains on Thursday, limiting the fire-weather risk across much of the CONUS. The only exception will be in the lee of the southern Rockies in NM, where westerly/downslope flow and lee troughing will favor locally dry/breezy conditions during the afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... An intensely cold air mass accompanied by expanding cloud cover and light precipitation will move into the northern/central plains and Upper Midwest Thursday limiting fire weather concerns. Locally breezy downslope winds and drying will continue to impact locations in immediate leeward locations and foothills of the Rockies across southern CO and NM, although cloud cover and marginally dry fuels will limit a larger fire weather threat. ..Williams.. 01/21/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0148 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026/ ...Synopsis... An arctic air mass will begin to infiltrate the northern and central Plains on Thursday, limiting the fire-weather risk across much of the CONUS. The only exception will be in the lee of the southern Rockies in NM, where westerly/downslope flow and lee troughing will favor locally dry/breezy conditions during the afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0127 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered weak thunderstorm activity is possible Friday through Friday night across parts of central Texas into the southern Great Plains Red River Valley. ...Discussion... Models indicate that a confluent mid-level regime will be maintained across and east of the Rockies, downstream of amplified split flow across the central/eastern Pacific into far western North America. Although the center of initially prominent, cold surface ridging may begin to weaken some while slowly shifting east of the Missouri Valley through the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, the leading edge of the Arctic air is forecast to surge southward across the southern Great Plains, through much of central and southwestern Texas by late Friday night. The front is also forecast to advance further offshore of the southern Mid Atlantic, but slower southward through the eastern Gulf Coast states and lower Mississippi Valley, beneath a broad building mid-level ridge across much of the south central and southeastern U.S., downstream of mid-level troughing digging across the international border into the northern U.S. Rockies/Great Plains and a short wave trough emerging from the southern mid-latitude eastern Pacific. There remains notable spread concerning the eastward acceleration of the latter perturbation, generally toward Baja, during this period. However, guidance continues to generally indicate increasing low-level moistening within strengthening southerly downstream flow, across and north of the lower Rio Grande Valley and Texas coastal areas. ...Southern Great Plains/Red River Valley... Although mid-level lapse rates are not likely to steepen appreciably, forecast soundings suggest that lower/mid-tropospheric thermal and moisture advection may lead to weak destabilization by late Friday into Friday night, mostly above the southward advancing cold air. It appears that this will become increasingly sufficient for widely scattered to scattered convective development capable of producing lightning, perhaps as far north as portions of southern Oklahoma by 12Z Saturday. ..Kerr.. 01/21/2026 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0127 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered weak thunderstorm activity is possible Friday through Friday night across parts of central Texas into the southern Great Plains Red River Valley. ...Discussion... Models indicate that a confluent mid-level regime will be maintained across and east of the Rockies, downstream of amplified split flow across the central/eastern Pacific into far western North America. Although the center of initially prominent, cold surface ridging may begin to weaken some while slowly shifting east of the Missouri Valley through the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, the leading edge of the Arctic air is forecast to surge southward across the southern Great Plains, through much of central and southwestern Texas by late Friday night. The front is also forecast to advance further offshore of the southern Mid Atlantic, but slower southward through the eastern Gulf Coast states and lower Mississippi Valley, beneath a broad building mid-level ridge across much of the south central and southeastern U.S., downstream of mid-level troughing digging across the international border into the northern U.S. Rockies/Great Plains and a short wave trough emerging from the southern mid-latitude eastern Pacific. There remains notable spread concerning the eastward acceleration of the latter perturbation, generally toward Baja, during this period. However, guidance continues to generally indicate increasing low-level moistening within strengthening southerly downstream flow, across and north of the lower Rio Grande Valley and Texas coastal areas. ...Southern Great Plains/Red River Valley... Although mid-level lapse rates are not likely to steepen appreciably, forecast soundings suggest that lower/mid-tropospheric thermal and moisture advection may lead to weak destabilization by late Friday into Friday night, mostly above the southward advancing cold air. It appears that this will become increasingly sufficient for widely scattered to scattered convective development capable of producing lightning, perhaps as far north as portions of southern Oklahoma by 12Z Saturday. ..Kerr.. 01/21/2026 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0127 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered weak thunderstorm activity is possible Friday through Friday night across parts of central Texas into the southern Great Plains Red River Valley. ...Discussion... Models indicate that a confluent mid-level regime will be maintained across and east of the Rockies, downstream of amplified split flow across the central/eastern Pacific into far western North America. Although the center of initially prominent, cold surface ridging may begin to weaken some while slowly shifting east of the Missouri Valley through the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, the leading edge of the Arctic air is forecast to surge southward across the southern Great Plains, through much of central and southwestern Texas by late Friday night. The front is also forecast to advance further offshore of the southern Mid Atlantic, but slower southward through the eastern Gulf Coast states and lower Mississippi Valley, beneath a broad building mid-level ridge across much of the south central and southeastern U.S., downstream of mid-level troughing digging across the international border into the northern U.S. Rockies/Great Plains and a short wave trough emerging from the southern mid-latitude eastern Pacific. There remains notable spread concerning the eastward acceleration of the latter perturbation, generally toward Baja, during this period. However, guidance continues to generally indicate increasing low-level moistening within strengthening southerly downstream flow, across and north of the lower Rio Grande Valley and Texas coastal areas. ...Southern Great Plains/Red River Valley... Although mid-level lapse rates are not likely to steepen appreciably, forecast soundings suggest that lower/mid-tropospheric thermal and moisture advection may lead to weak destabilization by late Friday into Friday night, mostly above the southward advancing cold air. It appears that this will become increasingly sufficient for widely scattered to scattered convective development capable of producing lightning, perhaps as far north as portions of southern Oklahoma by 12Z Saturday. ..Kerr.. 01/21/2026 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0127 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered weak thunderstorm activity is possible Friday through Friday night across parts of central Texas into the southern Great Plains Red River Valley. ...Discussion... Models indicate that a confluent mid-level regime will be maintained across and east of the Rockies, downstream of amplified split flow across the central/eastern Pacific into far western North America. Although the center of initially prominent, cold surface ridging may begin to weaken some while slowly shifting east of the Missouri Valley through the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, the leading edge of the Arctic air is forecast to surge southward across the southern Great Plains, through much of central and southwestern Texas by late Friday night. The front is also forecast to advance further offshore of the southern Mid Atlantic, but slower southward through the eastern Gulf Coast states and lower Mississippi Valley, beneath a broad building mid-level ridge across much of the south central and southeastern U.S., downstream of mid-level troughing digging across the international border into the northern U.S. Rockies/Great Plains and a short wave trough emerging from the southern mid-latitude eastern Pacific. There remains notable spread concerning the eastward acceleration of the latter perturbation, generally toward Baja, during this period. However, guidance continues to generally indicate increasing low-level moistening within strengthening southerly downstream flow, across and north of the lower Rio Grande Valley and Texas coastal areas. ...Southern Great Plains/Red River Valley... Although mid-level lapse rates are not likely to steepen appreciably, forecast soundings suggest that lower/mid-tropospheric thermal and moisture advection may lead to weak destabilization by late Friday into Friday night, mostly above the southward advancing cold air. It appears that this will become increasingly sufficient for widely scattered to scattered convective development capable of producing lightning, perhaps as far north as portions of southern Oklahoma by 12Z Saturday. ..Kerr.. 01/21/2026 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1102 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Aside from the risk for a few weak thunderstorms near southeastern Florida coastal areas, potential for thunderstorm development appears low across the U.S. Thursday through Thursday night. ...Discussion... A vigorous short wave trough emanating from the Canadian Arctic latitudes is forecast to dig southeast of the international border, across parts of the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region, and contribute to the maintenance of larger-scale mid-level troughing across the northern U.S. Great Plains through northern and middle Atlantic Seaboard. Beneath an increasingly confluent regime in its wake, models continue to indicate that a rather prominent, cold surface ridge will build southeastward along an axis across the middle/lower Missouri Valley into lower Ohio Valley by late Thursday night. It appears that a preceding surface frontal zone will stall and perhaps strengthen across the Carolinas through northern portions of the Gulf Coast states into southern Great Plains. Another is expected to slowly weaken across the Florida Peninsula and northern Gulf Basin, as much of the southern tier of the U.S. continues to come under the increasing influence of westerlies emanating from the mid- to subtropical eastern Pacific. Downstream of fairly sharp building mid-level ridging across the eastern mid-latitude Pacific, models have come in better agreement concerning a digging mid-level trough and embedded low offshore of the southern California/northern Baja Pacific coast. It is becoming more certain that the cyclonic circulation and colder temperatures associated with an elongating mid-level cold core will generally remain offshore of the southern California, before turning inland across northern Baja after 12Z Friday. ...Southern California... Models continue to indicate coldest offshore mid-level temperatures at a somewhat modest -22 to -24C around 500 mb. However, based on the latest Rapid Refresh and NAM forecast soundings, weak destabilization supportive of short-lived weak thunderstorm development may not be entirely out of the question near coastal areas, particularly where forcing for ascent is aided by orography near the Transverse and perhaps Peninsular Ranges. Certainty does not yet appear high enough for the minimum 10 percent threshold, but this will continue to be monitored. ...Gulf Coast States... Given the general tendency for warming mid-levels, and the lack of both more substantive further low-level moistening off a slowly modifying Gulf boundary layer and mid/upper support for ascent, the risk for thunderstorm activity still appears minimal Thursday through Thursday night. The primary exception still appears near southeastern Florida coastal areas, in response to increasing boundary-layer destabilization and convergence, near developing surface troughing and the remnant surface front, perhaps aided by forcing associated with weak perturbations within the subtropical westerlies. ..Kerr.. 01/21/2026 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1102 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Aside from the risk for a few weak thunderstorms near southeastern Florida coastal areas, potential for thunderstorm development appears low across the U.S. Thursday through Thursday night. ...Discussion... A vigorous short wave trough emanating from the Canadian Arctic latitudes is forecast to dig southeast of the international border, across parts of the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region, and contribute to the maintenance of larger-scale mid-level troughing across the northern U.S. Great Plains through northern and middle Atlantic Seaboard. Beneath an increasingly confluent regime in its wake, models continue to indicate that a rather prominent, cold surface ridge will build southeastward along an axis across the middle/lower Missouri Valley into lower Ohio Valley by late Thursday night. It appears that a preceding surface frontal zone will stall and perhaps strengthen across the Carolinas through northern portions of the Gulf Coast states into southern Great Plains. Another is expected to slowly weaken across the Florida Peninsula and northern Gulf Basin, as much of the southern tier of the U.S. continues to come under the increasing influence of westerlies emanating from the mid- to subtropical eastern Pacific. Downstream of fairly sharp building mid-level ridging across the eastern mid-latitude Pacific, models have come in better agreement concerning a digging mid-level trough and embedded low offshore of the southern California/northern Baja Pacific coast. It is becoming more certain that the cyclonic circulation and colder temperatures associated with an elongating mid-level cold core will generally remain offshore of the southern California, before turning inland across northern Baja after 12Z Friday. ...Southern California... Models continue to indicate coldest offshore mid-level temperatures at a somewhat modest -22 to -24C around 500 mb. However, based on the latest Rapid Refresh and NAM forecast soundings, weak destabilization supportive of short-lived weak thunderstorm development may not be entirely out of the question near coastal areas, particularly where forcing for ascent is aided by orography near the Transverse and perhaps Peninsular Ranges. Certainty does not yet appear high enough for the minimum 10 percent threshold, but this will continue to be monitored. ...Gulf Coast States... Given the general tendency for warming mid-levels, and the lack of both more substantive further low-level moistening off a slowly modifying Gulf boundary layer and mid/upper support for ascent, the risk for thunderstorm activity still appears minimal Thursday through Thursday night. The primary exception still appears near southeastern Florida coastal areas, in response to increasing boundary-layer destabilization and convergence, near developing surface troughing and the remnant surface front, perhaps aided by forcing associated with weak perturbations within the subtropical westerlies. ..Kerr.. 01/21/2026 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1102 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Aside from the risk for a few weak thunderstorms near southeastern Florida coastal areas, potential for thunderstorm development appears low across the U.S. Thursday through Thursday night. ...Discussion... A vigorous short wave trough emanating from the Canadian Arctic latitudes is forecast to dig southeast of the international border, across parts of the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region, and contribute to the maintenance of larger-scale mid-level troughing across the northern U.S. Great Plains through northern and middle Atlantic Seaboard. Beneath an increasingly confluent regime in its wake, models continue to indicate that a rather prominent, cold surface ridge will build southeastward along an axis across the middle/lower Missouri Valley into lower Ohio Valley by late Thursday night. It appears that a preceding surface frontal zone will stall and perhaps strengthen across the Carolinas through northern portions of the Gulf Coast states into southern Great Plains. Another is expected to slowly weaken across the Florida Peninsula and northern Gulf Basin, as much of the southern tier of the U.S. continues to come under the increasing influence of westerlies emanating from the mid- to subtropical eastern Pacific. Downstream of fairly sharp building mid-level ridging across the eastern mid-latitude Pacific, models have come in better agreement concerning a digging mid-level trough and embedded low offshore of the southern California/northern Baja Pacific coast. It is becoming more certain that the cyclonic circulation and colder temperatures associated with an elongating mid-level cold core will generally remain offshore of the southern California, before turning inland across northern Baja after 12Z Friday. ...Southern California... Models continue to indicate coldest offshore mid-level temperatures at a somewhat modest -22 to -24C around 500 mb. However, based on the latest Rapid Refresh and NAM forecast soundings, weak destabilization supportive of short-lived weak thunderstorm development may not be entirely out of the question near coastal areas, particularly where forcing for ascent is aided by orography near the Transverse and perhaps Peninsular Ranges. Certainty does not yet appear high enough for the minimum 10 percent threshold, but this will continue to be monitored. ...Gulf Coast States... Given the general tendency for warming mid-levels, and the lack of both more substantive further low-level moistening off a slowly modifying Gulf boundary layer and mid/upper support for ascent, the risk for thunderstorm activity still appears minimal Thursday through Thursday night. The primary exception still appears near southeastern Florida coastal areas, in response to increasing boundary-layer destabilization and convergence, near developing surface troughing and the remnant surface front, perhaps aided by forcing associated with weak perturbations within the subtropical westerlies. ..Kerr.. 01/21/2026 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1102 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Aside from the risk for a few weak thunderstorms near southeastern Florida coastal areas, potential for thunderstorm development appears low across the U.S. Thursday through Thursday night. ...Discussion... A vigorous short wave trough emanating from the Canadian Arctic latitudes is forecast to dig southeast of the international border, across parts of the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region, and contribute to the maintenance of larger-scale mid-level troughing across the northern U.S. Great Plains through northern and middle Atlantic Seaboard. Beneath an increasingly confluent regime in its wake, models continue to indicate that a rather prominent, cold surface ridge will build southeastward along an axis across the middle/lower Missouri Valley into lower Ohio Valley by late Thursday night. It appears that a preceding surface frontal zone will stall and perhaps strengthen across the Carolinas through northern portions of the Gulf Coast states into southern Great Plains. Another is expected to slowly weaken across the Florida Peninsula and northern Gulf Basin, as much of the southern tier of the U.S. continues to come under the increasing influence of westerlies emanating from the mid- to subtropical eastern Pacific. Downstream of fairly sharp building mid-level ridging across the eastern mid-latitude Pacific, models have come in better agreement concerning a digging mid-level trough and embedded low offshore of the southern California/northern Baja Pacific coast. It is becoming more certain that the cyclonic circulation and colder temperatures associated with an elongating mid-level cold core will generally remain offshore of the southern California, before turning inland across northern Baja after 12Z Friday. ...Southern California... Models continue to indicate coldest offshore mid-level temperatures at a somewhat modest -22 to -24C around 500 mb. However, based on the latest Rapid Refresh and NAM forecast soundings, weak destabilization supportive of short-lived weak thunderstorm development may not be entirely out of the question near coastal areas, particularly where forcing for ascent is aided by orography near the Transverse and perhaps Peninsular Ranges. Certainty does not yet appear high enough for the minimum 10 percent threshold, but this will continue to be monitored. ...Gulf Coast States... Given the general tendency for warming mid-levels, and the lack of both more substantive further low-level moistening off a slowly modifying Gulf boundary layer and mid/upper support for ascent, the risk for thunderstorm activity still appears minimal Thursday through Thursday night. The primary exception still appears near southeastern Florida coastal areas, in response to increasing boundary-layer destabilization and convergence, near developing surface troughing and the remnant surface front, perhaps aided by forcing associated with weak perturbations within the subtropical westerlies. ..Kerr.. 01/21/2026 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1051 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026 Valid 211700Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes were needed to the Day 1 Outlook. Enhanced northwesterly flow aloft and associated lee surface troughing in the central High Plains will support breezy west-northwest winds across southeast WY, southwest NE, and northeast CO, but limited RH reductions to around 20 percent, cooler temperatures and cloud cover should mitigate a broader fire weather threat today. Farther south, brief and localized elevated fire weather conditions promoted by dry, downslope flow are still expected in favored terrain along the CO Front Range and Sangre De Cristo Mountains. Although relative humidity in the single digits will be present, a more expansive alignment of west winds of 15-20 mph and receptive fuels should remain limited. ..Williams.. 01/21/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0148 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026/ ...Synopsis... A northwesterly jet streak will overspread the northern/central Plains today, while a related cold front moves across the region. Along/immediately ahead of the front, breezy/gusty northwesterly surface winds and around 25 percent RH may yield locally elevated fire-weather conditions across parts of southeast WY, southwest NE, and northeast CO. However, the overall risk should be spatially and temporally limited by the southward-moving cold front. Farther south, enhanced northwesterly flow aloft and related lee troughing over the central High Plains will also lead to locally dry/breezy conditions in the immediate lee of the Front Range and Sangre de Cristo Mountains in CO and northern NM. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1051 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026 Valid 211700Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes were needed to the Day 1 Outlook. Enhanced northwesterly flow aloft and associated lee surface troughing in the central High Plains will support breezy west-northwest winds across southeast WY, southwest NE, and northeast CO, but limited RH reductions to around 20 percent, cooler temperatures and cloud cover should mitigate a broader fire weather threat today. Farther south, brief and localized elevated fire weather conditions promoted by dry, downslope flow are still expected in favored terrain along the CO Front Range and Sangre De Cristo Mountains. Although relative humidity in the single digits will be present, a more expansive alignment of west winds of 15-20 mph and receptive fuels should remain limited. ..Williams.. 01/21/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0148 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026/ ...Synopsis... A northwesterly jet streak will overspread the northern/central Plains today, while a related cold front moves across the region. Along/immediately ahead of the front, breezy/gusty northwesterly surface winds and around 25 percent RH may yield locally elevated fire-weather conditions across parts of southeast WY, southwest NE, and northeast CO. However, the overall risk should be spatially and temporally limited by the southward-moving cold front. Farther south, enhanced northwesterly flow aloft and related lee troughing over the central High Plains will also lead to locally dry/breezy conditions in the immediate lee of the Front Range and Sangre de Cristo Mountains in CO and northern NM. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1051 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026 Valid 211700Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes were needed to the Day 1 Outlook. Enhanced northwesterly flow aloft and associated lee surface troughing in the central High Plains will support breezy west-northwest winds across southeast WY, southwest NE, and northeast CO, but limited RH reductions to around 20 percent, cooler temperatures and cloud cover should mitigate a broader fire weather threat today. Farther south, brief and localized elevated fire weather conditions promoted by dry, downslope flow are still expected in favored terrain along the CO Front Range and Sangre De Cristo Mountains. Although relative humidity in the single digits will be present, a more expansive alignment of west winds of 15-20 mph and receptive fuels should remain limited. ..Williams.. 01/21/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0148 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026/ ...Synopsis... A northwesterly jet streak will overspread the northern/central Plains today, while a related cold front moves across the region. Along/immediately ahead of the front, breezy/gusty northwesterly surface winds and around 25 percent RH may yield locally elevated fire-weather conditions across parts of southeast WY, southwest NE, and northeast CO. However, the overall risk should be spatially and temporally limited by the southward-moving cold front. Farther south, enhanced northwesterly flow aloft and related lee troughing over the central High Plains will also lead to locally dry/breezy conditions in the immediate lee of the Front Range and Sangre de Cristo Mountains in CO and northern NM. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1051 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026 Valid 211700Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes were needed to the Day 1 Outlook. Enhanced northwesterly flow aloft and associated lee surface troughing in the central High Plains will support breezy west-northwest winds across southeast WY, southwest NE, and northeast CO, but limited RH reductions to around 20 percent, cooler temperatures and cloud cover should mitigate a broader fire weather threat today. Farther south, brief and localized elevated fire weather conditions promoted by dry, downslope flow are still expected in favored terrain along the CO Front Range and Sangre De Cristo Mountains. Although relative humidity in the single digits will be present, a more expansive alignment of west winds of 15-20 mph and receptive fuels should remain limited. ..Williams.. 01/21/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0148 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026/ ...Synopsis... A northwesterly jet streak will overspread the northern/central Plains today, while a related cold front moves across the region. Along/immediately ahead of the front, breezy/gusty northwesterly surface winds and around 25 percent RH may yield locally elevated fire-weather conditions across parts of southeast WY, southwest NE, and northeast CO. However, the overall risk should be spatially and temporally limited by the southward-moving cold front. Farther south, enhanced northwesterly flow aloft and related lee troughing over the central High Plains will also lead to locally dry/breezy conditions in the immediate lee of the Front Range and Sangre de Cristo Mountains in CO and northern NM. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more