SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2026 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z ...Synopsis... A dynamic mid-level trough and attendant large scale ascent will move across the Southern U.S. through early next week while a surface trough across south TX on Day 3/Saturday translates eastward evolves into a deepening surface low before reaching the East Coast on Day 5/Monday. A relatively shallow cold air mass in place across the Southern U.S. will yield a widespread mix of precipitation, stretching from the Southwestern to the Northeast by early next week. This coupled with lingering cold temperatures, surface high pressure and persistent mean upper-level troughing will likely limit fire weather concerns across the eastern U.S. An upper-level ridge building back over the western U.S. will maintain primarily dry conditions over the Desert Southwest with above normal temperatures returning to much of the region by next week. Although some breezy north winds aligning with low relative humidity could occur Day 4/Sunday with the passage of a cold front, overall fuels remains largely unreceptive, precluding introduction of critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 01/22/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2026 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z ...Synopsis... A dynamic mid-level trough and attendant large scale ascent will move across the Southern U.S. through early next week while a surface trough across south TX on Day 3/Saturday translates eastward evolves into a deepening surface low before reaching the East Coast on Day 5/Monday. A relatively shallow cold air mass in place across the Southern U.S. will yield a widespread mix of precipitation, stretching from the Southwestern to the Northeast by early next week. This coupled with lingering cold temperatures, surface high pressure and persistent mean upper-level troughing will likely limit fire weather concerns across the eastern U.S. An upper-level ridge building back over the western U.S. will maintain primarily dry conditions over the Desert Southwest with above normal temperatures returning to much of the region by next week. Although some breezy north winds aligning with low relative humidity could occur Day 4/Sunday with the passage of a cold front, overall fuels remains largely unreceptive, precluding introduction of critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 01/22/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2026 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z ...Synopsis... A dynamic mid-level trough and attendant large scale ascent will move across the Southern U.S. through early next week while a surface trough across south TX on Day 3/Saturday translates eastward evolves into a deepening surface low before reaching the East Coast on Day 5/Monday. A relatively shallow cold air mass in place across the Southern U.S. will yield a widespread mix of precipitation, stretching from the Southwestern to the Northeast by early next week. This coupled with lingering cold temperatures, surface high pressure and persistent mean upper-level troughing will likely limit fire weather concerns across the eastern U.S. An upper-level ridge building back over the western U.S. will maintain primarily dry conditions over the Desert Southwest with above normal temperatures returning to much of the region by next week. Although some breezy north winds aligning with low relative humidity could occur Day 4/Sunday with the passage of a cold front, overall fuels remains largely unreceptive, precluding introduction of critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 01/22/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2026 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across southeast Florida today, but severe thunderstorms are not expected. No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. ..Hart.. 01/22/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0955 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026/ ...SE FL... A weak surface boundary lies just offshore along the southeast FL coast. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will persist along this boundary through early evening as an upper trough progresses across the region. This threat should weaken after dark. No severe storms are expected. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2026 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across southeast Florida today, but severe thunderstorms are not expected. No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. ..Hart.. 01/22/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0955 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026/ ...SE FL... A weak surface boundary lies just offshore along the southeast FL coast. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will persist along this boundary through early evening as an upper trough progresses across the region. This threat should weaken after dark. No severe storms are expected. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2026 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across southeast Florida today, but severe thunderstorms are not expected. No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. ..Hart.. 01/22/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0955 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026/ ...SE FL... A weak surface boundary lies just offshore along the southeast FL coast. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will persist along this boundary through early evening as an upper trough progresses across the region. This threat should weaken after dark. No severe storms are expected. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2026 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across southeast Florida today, but severe thunderstorms are not expected. No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. ..Hart.. 01/22/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0955 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026/ ...SE FL... A weak surface boundary lies just offshore along the southeast FL coast. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will persist along this boundary through early evening as an upper trough progresses across the region. This threat should weaken after dark. No severe storms are expected. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2026 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across southeast Florida today, but severe thunderstorms are not expected. No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. ..Hart.. 01/22/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0955 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026/ ...SE FL... A weak surface boundary lies just offshore along the southeast FL coast. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will persist along this boundary through early evening as an upper trough progresses across the region. This threat should weaken after dark. No severe storms are expected. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0133 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2026 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Minimal fire weather concerns are expected across the contiguous U.S. Friday as a strong cold front moves into the Southern U.S. Expansive cloud cover and onset of precipitation across the Southwest and central/southern Plains ahead of an impactful mid-level trough will further mitigate the fire weather threat. ..Williams.. 01/22/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1153 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026/ ...Synopsis... An arctic air mass will infiltrate the CONUS, precluding fire-weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0133 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2026 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Minimal fire weather concerns are expected across the contiguous U.S. Friday as a strong cold front moves into the Southern U.S. Expansive cloud cover and onset of precipitation across the Southwest and central/southern Plains ahead of an impactful mid-level trough will further mitigate the fire weather threat. ..Williams.. 01/22/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1153 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026/ ...Synopsis... An arctic air mass will infiltrate the CONUS, precluding fire-weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0133 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2026 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Minimal fire weather concerns are expected across the contiguous U.S. Friday as a strong cold front moves into the Southern U.S. Expansive cloud cover and onset of precipitation across the Southwest and central/southern Plains ahead of an impactful mid-level trough will further mitigate the fire weather threat. ..Williams.. 01/22/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1153 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026/ ...Synopsis... An arctic air mass will infiltrate the CONUS, precluding fire-weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0133 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2026 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Minimal fire weather concerns are expected across the contiguous U.S. Friday as a strong cold front moves into the Southern U.S. Expansive cloud cover and onset of precipitation across the Southwest and central/southern Plains ahead of an impactful mid-level trough will further mitigate the fire weather threat. ..Williams.. 01/22/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1153 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026/ ...Synopsis... An arctic air mass will infiltrate the CONUS, precluding fire-weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0133 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2026 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Minimal fire weather concerns are expected across the contiguous U.S. Friday as a strong cold front moves into the Southern U.S. Expansive cloud cover and onset of precipitation across the Southwest and central/southern Plains ahead of an impactful mid-level trough will further mitigate the fire weather threat. ..Williams.. 01/22/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1153 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026/ ...Synopsis... An arctic air mass will infiltrate the CONUS, precluding fire-weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0114 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2026 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. Saturday through Saturday night. ...Discussion... Downstream of amplified split flow across the Pacific into western North America, models indicate that several short wave troughs will gradually consolidate into larger-scale mid-level troughing across the Rockies and Great Plains into Mississippi Valley during this period. This is likely to include at least a couple of merging perturbations of Canadian Arctic origin digging across the international border through the northern U.S. Rockies and Great Plains, and another emerging from the northern mid-latitude Pacific before digging inland across the Pacific Northwest coast through the Great Basin. Yet another impulse, emerging from the southern mid-latitude eastern Pacific, is generally forecast to accelerate across Baja and the northern Mexican Plateau, into the southern Great Plains by late Saturday night. Preceded by the southeastward development of an expansive cold surface ridge across much of the nation to the east of the Rockies, as far south as the Gulf coast vicinity, the potential for significant lee surface cyclogenesis appears low through this period. However, latest guidance appears generally consistent indicating modestly deepening surface troughing, accompanying erosion of the cold air, in one corridor across the lower Mississippi Valley toward the lower Ohio Valley, and another near/offshore of the Carolina coast by late Saturday night. Associated destabilization still appears likely to remain elevated, and generally weak, in nature inland of northwestern and central Gulf coastal areas, with negligible risk for severe weather through at least 12Z Sunday. ..Kerr.. 01/22/2026 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0114 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2026 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. Saturday through Saturday night. ...Discussion... Downstream of amplified split flow across the Pacific into western North America, models indicate that several short wave troughs will gradually consolidate into larger-scale mid-level troughing across the Rockies and Great Plains into Mississippi Valley during this period. This is likely to include at least a couple of merging perturbations of Canadian Arctic origin digging across the international border through the northern U.S. Rockies and Great Plains, and another emerging from the northern mid-latitude Pacific before digging inland across the Pacific Northwest coast through the Great Basin. Yet another impulse, emerging from the southern mid-latitude eastern Pacific, is generally forecast to accelerate across Baja and the northern Mexican Plateau, into the southern Great Plains by late Saturday night. Preceded by the southeastward development of an expansive cold surface ridge across much of the nation to the east of the Rockies, as far south as the Gulf coast vicinity, the potential for significant lee surface cyclogenesis appears low through this period. However, latest guidance appears generally consistent indicating modestly deepening surface troughing, accompanying erosion of the cold air, in one corridor across the lower Mississippi Valley toward the lower Ohio Valley, and another near/offshore of the Carolina coast by late Saturday night. Associated destabilization still appears likely to remain elevated, and generally weak, in nature inland of northwestern and central Gulf coastal areas, with negligible risk for severe weather through at least 12Z Sunday. ..Kerr.. 01/22/2026 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0114 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2026 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. Saturday through Saturday night. ...Discussion... Downstream of amplified split flow across the Pacific into western North America, models indicate that several short wave troughs will gradually consolidate into larger-scale mid-level troughing across the Rockies and Great Plains into Mississippi Valley during this period. This is likely to include at least a couple of merging perturbations of Canadian Arctic origin digging across the international border through the northern U.S. Rockies and Great Plains, and another emerging from the northern mid-latitude Pacific before digging inland across the Pacific Northwest coast through the Great Basin. Yet another impulse, emerging from the southern mid-latitude eastern Pacific, is generally forecast to accelerate across Baja and the northern Mexican Plateau, into the southern Great Plains by late Saturday night. Preceded by the southeastward development of an expansive cold surface ridge across much of the nation to the east of the Rockies, as far south as the Gulf coast vicinity, the potential for significant lee surface cyclogenesis appears low through this period. However, latest guidance appears generally consistent indicating modestly deepening surface troughing, accompanying erosion of the cold air, in one corridor across the lower Mississippi Valley toward the lower Ohio Valley, and another near/offshore of the Carolina coast by late Saturday night. Associated destabilization still appears likely to remain elevated, and generally weak, in nature inland of northwestern and central Gulf coastal areas, with negligible risk for severe weather through at least 12Z Sunday. ..Kerr.. 01/22/2026 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0114 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2026 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. Saturday through Saturday night. ...Discussion... Downstream of amplified split flow across the Pacific into western North America, models indicate that several short wave troughs will gradually consolidate into larger-scale mid-level troughing across the Rockies and Great Plains into Mississippi Valley during this period. This is likely to include at least a couple of merging perturbations of Canadian Arctic origin digging across the international border through the northern U.S. Rockies and Great Plains, and another emerging from the northern mid-latitude Pacific before digging inland across the Pacific Northwest coast through the Great Basin. Yet another impulse, emerging from the southern mid-latitude eastern Pacific, is generally forecast to accelerate across Baja and the northern Mexican Plateau, into the southern Great Plains by late Saturday night. Preceded by the southeastward development of an expansive cold surface ridge across much of the nation to the east of the Rockies, as far south as the Gulf coast vicinity, the potential for significant lee surface cyclogenesis appears low through this period. However, latest guidance appears generally consistent indicating modestly deepening surface troughing, accompanying erosion of the cold air, in one corridor across the lower Mississippi Valley toward the lower Ohio Valley, and another near/offshore of the Carolina coast by late Saturday night. Associated destabilization still appears likely to remain elevated, and generally weak, in nature inland of northwestern and central Gulf coastal areas, with negligible risk for severe weather through at least 12Z Sunday. ..Kerr.. 01/22/2026 Read more

MD 0032 CONCERNING SNOW SQUALL FOR NORTHERN PA INTO PARTS OF UPSTATE NY AND WESTERN VT
Mesoscale Discussion 0032 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026 Areas affected...Northern PA into parts of Upstate NY and western VT Concerning...Snow Squall Valid 221352Z - 221745Z SUMMARY...Snow squall potential may increase through the morning. DISCUSSION...Locally heavy snow showers are ongoing this morning from western NY into northern PA, within a broader region of deep cyclonic flow covering the Great Lakes region. Modest diurnal warming beneath cold temperatures aloft (near/below -20C at 700 mb) will steepen low-level lapse rates with time this morning, especially across parts of western/northern NY. While low-level forcing will remain relatively subtle, multiple shallow convective bands may continue to develop, especially downstream of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. Any stronger bands may persist as they move eastward, with recent HRRR/RRFS runs both depicting multiple bands moving across parts of northern NY later this morning into the early afternoon. Any stronger bands will be capable of producing briefly heavy snow rates. Strengthening west-southwesterly boundary-layer flow will also support strong gust potential, especially where more pronounced steepening of low-level lapse rates occurs. This combination of wind and briefly heavy snow will result in potential for abrupt visibility reductions through the morning into at least the early afternoon. ..Dean.. 01/22/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP...CLE... LAT...LON 41447842 41867961 42347973 43317914 43427777 43337651 43617608 44137621 45027504 45037361 44987307 44587295 44277304 43177346 42377396 41727581 41617680 41447842 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1109 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered weak thunderstorm activity appears possible Friday into Friday night in a corridor across the Texas Big Bend into central Texas. ...Discussion... A confluent mid-level regime will generally be maintained across and east of the Rockies through this period, downstream of amplified split flow across the central/eastern Pacific into far western North America. Although models continue to indicate that peak surface pressures within the center of initially prominent, cold surface ridging will begin to fall while it slowly shifts east of the Missouri Valley, appreciable modification of the Arctic air will be slow, and it is likely to continue surging southward across the remainder of the southern Great Plains, through much of south central and southwestern Texas by late Friday night. The leading edge of this air mass is also forecast to advance further offshore of the southern Mid Atlantic coast, but slower southward through the eastern Gulf Coast states and lower Mississippi Valley. Models indicate that this will occur beneath a broad building mid-level ridge east of the Rio Grande Valley into the Southeast, downstream of digging mid-level troughing across the international border into the northern U.S. Rockies/Great Plains and a short wave trough emerging from the southern mid-latitude eastern Pacific. There is notable continuing spread concerning the eastward acceleration of the southern perturbation, generally toward Baja, Friday through Friday night. However, an increasingly moist and strengthening downstream southerly return flow still appears probable across and north of the lower Rio Grande Valley and Texas coastal areas, particularly during the latter half of the period. ...Southern Great Plains across/northeast of Red River Valley... Forecast soundings and other model output continue to indicate that lower/mid-tropospheric thermal and moisture advection may lead to thermodynamic profiles characterized by at least very weak to weak conditional instability in a sizable swath from the northern Mexican Plateau across the southern Great Plains, including north and northeast of the Red River Valley. However, particularly with north-northeastward extent, above the southward surging cold surface air, these same soundings generally exhibit little in the way of convective instability, with profiles tending to becoming saturated while also warming aloft. So the extent of potential for convective development capable of producing lightning remains unclear Friday through Friday night. Modestly steeper mid-level lapse rates, and perhaps better potential for weak thunderstorm activity, may remain confined to a corridor across the Texas Big Bend into Edwards Plateau, and adjacent portions of central Texas, where mid/upper support for convective development may be aided by a short wave perturbation emanating from the subtropical eastern Pacific. ..Kerr.. 01/22/2026 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1109 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered weak thunderstorm activity appears possible Friday into Friday night in a corridor across the Texas Big Bend into central Texas. ...Discussion... A confluent mid-level regime will generally be maintained across and east of the Rockies through this period, downstream of amplified split flow across the central/eastern Pacific into far western North America. Although models continue to indicate that peak surface pressures within the center of initially prominent, cold surface ridging will begin to fall while it slowly shifts east of the Missouri Valley, appreciable modification of the Arctic air will be slow, and it is likely to continue surging southward across the remainder of the southern Great Plains, through much of south central and southwestern Texas by late Friday night. The leading edge of this air mass is also forecast to advance further offshore of the southern Mid Atlantic coast, but slower southward through the eastern Gulf Coast states and lower Mississippi Valley. Models indicate that this will occur beneath a broad building mid-level ridge east of the Rio Grande Valley into the Southeast, downstream of digging mid-level troughing across the international border into the northern U.S. Rockies/Great Plains and a short wave trough emerging from the southern mid-latitude eastern Pacific. There is notable continuing spread concerning the eastward acceleration of the southern perturbation, generally toward Baja, Friday through Friday night. However, an increasingly moist and strengthening downstream southerly return flow still appears probable across and north of the lower Rio Grande Valley and Texas coastal areas, particularly during the latter half of the period. ...Southern Great Plains across/northeast of Red River Valley... Forecast soundings and other model output continue to indicate that lower/mid-tropospheric thermal and moisture advection may lead to thermodynamic profiles characterized by at least very weak to weak conditional instability in a sizable swath from the northern Mexican Plateau across the southern Great Plains, including north and northeast of the Red River Valley. However, particularly with north-northeastward extent, above the southward surging cold surface air, these same soundings generally exhibit little in the way of convective instability, with profiles tending to becoming saturated while also warming aloft. So the extent of potential for convective development capable of producing lightning remains unclear Friday through Friday night. Modestly steeper mid-level lapse rates, and perhaps better potential for weak thunderstorm activity, may remain confined to a corridor across the Texas Big Bend into Edwards Plateau, and adjacent portions of central Texas, where mid/upper support for convective development may be aided by a short wave perturbation emanating from the subtropical eastern Pacific. ..Kerr.. 01/22/2026 Read more