SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0958 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered weak thunderstorm activity is likely today into tonight across the Texas Big Bend region into central Texas. A large upper trough will deepen over the Rockies and High Plains this evening, with large-scale forcing for ascent spreading across much of TX/OK. Forecast soundings in this area show sufficiently steep mid-level lapse rates and MUCAPE > 0 to support occasional thunderstorms. This includes parts of western north TX and southern OK where freezing p-types are anticipated. Over south TX, the main cold front will be surging southward into a moist air mass with dewpoints in the 60s. Several model solutions suggest the development of a few thunderstorms along the front - mainly after dark. While a brief tornado or strong wind gust cannot be ruled out, rapid undercutting of the front is expected to limit the overall severe threat so no probabilities have been added. ..Hart/Grams.. 01/23/2026 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0958 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered weak thunderstorm activity is likely today into tonight across the Texas Big Bend region into central Texas. A large upper trough will deepen over the Rockies and High Plains this evening, with large-scale forcing for ascent spreading across much of TX/OK. Forecast soundings in this area show sufficiently steep mid-level lapse rates and MUCAPE > 0 to support occasional thunderstorms. This includes parts of western north TX and southern OK where freezing p-types are anticipated. Over south TX, the main cold front will be surging southward into a moist air mass with dewpoints in the 60s. Several model solutions suggest the development of a few thunderstorms along the front - mainly after dark. While a brief tornado or strong wind gust cannot be ruled out, rapid undercutting of the front is expected to limit the overall severe threat so no probabilities have been added. ..Hart/Grams.. 01/23/2026 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0958 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered weak thunderstorm activity is likely today into tonight across the Texas Big Bend region into central Texas. A large upper trough will deepen over the Rockies and High Plains this evening, with large-scale forcing for ascent spreading across much of TX/OK. Forecast soundings in this area show sufficiently steep mid-level lapse rates and MUCAPE > 0 to support occasional thunderstorms. This includes parts of western north TX and southern OK where freezing p-types are anticipated. Over south TX, the main cold front will be surging southward into a moist air mass with dewpoints in the 60s. Several model solutions suggest the development of a few thunderstorms along the front - mainly after dark. While a brief tornado or strong wind gust cannot be ruled out, rapid undercutting of the front is expected to limit the overall severe threat so no probabilities have been added. ..Hart/Grams.. 01/23/2026 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0637 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026 Valid 231300Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered weak thunderstorm activity is likely today into tonight across the Texas Big Bend region into central Texas. ...Synopsis... Early-morning satellite imagery shows a well-defined upper low off the northern Baja California coast, with a subtle lead shortwave moving into northwest Mexico and modest shortwave ridging from central Mexico into southeast AZ/southwest NM. Largely zonal flow persists across much of the central and eastern CONUS. Surface analysis reveals an expansive 1048 mb high extending from the southern Canadian Prairies through the central Plains, mid MS Valley, and much of the OH Valley. Very cold temperatures accompany this high, and an intense cold front is currently pushing southward across the TX Panhandle, northern OK, and northern AR. This same front is pushing southeastward across the middle OH Valley. ...Big Bend Region into North/Central Texas... Some modest low-level moisture advection is ongoing ahead of the cold front from the TX Coastal Plain into the TX Hill Country. This advection is forecast to continue throughout the day, likely bringing upper 50s/low 60s dewpoints as far northwest as the Edwards Plateau before interacting with the front this afternoon. Heating will be tempered by abundant cloud cover and mid-level lapse rates will be poor. Even so, the anticipated low-level moisture coupled with cold mid-level temperatures should result in a relatively confined area of moderate buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE 500-1000 J/kg) tonight. Additionally, deep-layer vertical shear will be strong, resulting in environmental conditions that could support a strong/marginally severe storm or two. However, the overall threat will be mitigated by the undercutting nature of the cold front and likely storm interactions. The limited duration and isolated nature of the severe threat currently precludes the need for probabilities. Farther north and west, a large area of precipitation is expected to develop behind the front, supported by the strengthening southwesterly flow aloft and associated broad isentropic ascent. Cooling mid-level temperatures may result in minimal buoyancy (mostly after 03Z), with a few deeper convective elements within the precipitation shield capable of producing lightning amid freezing rain and/or sleet. ..Mosier/Broyles.. 01/23/2026 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0637 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026 Valid 231300Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered weak thunderstorm activity is likely today into tonight across the Texas Big Bend region into central Texas. ...Synopsis... Early-morning satellite imagery shows a well-defined upper low off the northern Baja California coast, with a subtle lead shortwave moving into northwest Mexico and modest shortwave ridging from central Mexico into southeast AZ/southwest NM. Largely zonal flow persists across much of the central and eastern CONUS. Surface analysis reveals an expansive 1048 mb high extending from the southern Canadian Prairies through the central Plains, mid MS Valley, and much of the OH Valley. Very cold temperatures accompany this high, and an intense cold front is currently pushing southward across the TX Panhandle, northern OK, and northern AR. This same front is pushing southeastward across the middle OH Valley. ...Big Bend Region into North/Central Texas... Some modest low-level moisture advection is ongoing ahead of the cold front from the TX Coastal Plain into the TX Hill Country. This advection is forecast to continue throughout the day, likely bringing upper 50s/low 60s dewpoints as far northwest as the Edwards Plateau before interacting with the front this afternoon. Heating will be tempered by abundant cloud cover and mid-level lapse rates will be poor. Even so, the anticipated low-level moisture coupled with cold mid-level temperatures should result in a relatively confined area of moderate buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE 500-1000 J/kg) tonight. Additionally, deep-layer vertical shear will be strong, resulting in environmental conditions that could support a strong/marginally severe storm or two. However, the overall threat will be mitigated by the undercutting nature of the cold front and likely storm interactions. The limited duration and isolated nature of the severe threat currently precludes the need for probabilities. Farther north and west, a large area of precipitation is expected to develop behind the front, supported by the strengthening southwesterly flow aloft and associated broad isentropic ascent. Cooling mid-level temperatures may result in minimal buoyancy (mostly after 03Z), with a few deeper convective elements within the precipitation shield capable of producing lightning amid freezing rain and/or sleet. ..Mosier/Broyles.. 01/23/2026 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0637 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026 Valid 231300Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered weak thunderstorm activity is likely today into tonight across the Texas Big Bend region into central Texas. ...Synopsis... Early-morning satellite imagery shows a well-defined upper low off the northern Baja California coast, with a subtle lead shortwave moving into northwest Mexico and modest shortwave ridging from central Mexico into southeast AZ/southwest NM. Largely zonal flow persists across much of the central and eastern CONUS. Surface analysis reveals an expansive 1048 mb high extending from the southern Canadian Prairies through the central Plains, mid MS Valley, and much of the OH Valley. Very cold temperatures accompany this high, and an intense cold front is currently pushing southward across the TX Panhandle, northern OK, and northern AR. This same front is pushing southeastward across the middle OH Valley. ...Big Bend Region into North/Central Texas... Some modest low-level moisture advection is ongoing ahead of the cold front from the TX Coastal Plain into the TX Hill Country. This advection is forecast to continue throughout the day, likely bringing upper 50s/low 60s dewpoints as far northwest as the Edwards Plateau before interacting with the front this afternoon. Heating will be tempered by abundant cloud cover and mid-level lapse rates will be poor. Even so, the anticipated low-level moisture coupled with cold mid-level temperatures should result in a relatively confined area of moderate buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE 500-1000 J/kg) tonight. Additionally, deep-layer vertical shear will be strong, resulting in environmental conditions that could support a strong/marginally severe storm or two. However, the overall threat will be mitigated by the undercutting nature of the cold front and likely storm interactions. The limited duration and isolated nature of the severe threat currently precludes the need for probabilities. Farther north and west, a large area of precipitation is expected to develop behind the front, supported by the strengthening southwesterly flow aloft and associated broad isentropic ascent. Cooling mid-level temperatures may result in minimal buoyancy (mostly after 03Z), with a few deeper convective elements within the precipitation shield capable of producing lightning amid freezing rain and/or sleet. ..Mosier/Broyles.. 01/23/2026 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0637 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026 Valid 231300Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered weak thunderstorm activity is likely today into tonight across the Texas Big Bend region into central Texas. ...Synopsis... Early-morning satellite imagery shows a well-defined upper low off the northern Baja California coast, with a subtle lead shortwave moving into northwest Mexico and modest shortwave ridging from central Mexico into southeast AZ/southwest NM. Largely zonal flow persists across much of the central and eastern CONUS. Surface analysis reveals an expansive 1048 mb high extending from the southern Canadian Prairies through the central Plains, mid MS Valley, and much of the OH Valley. Very cold temperatures accompany this high, and an intense cold front is currently pushing southward across the TX Panhandle, northern OK, and northern AR. This same front is pushing southeastward across the middle OH Valley. ...Big Bend Region into North/Central Texas... Some modest low-level moisture advection is ongoing ahead of the cold front from the TX Coastal Plain into the TX Hill Country. This advection is forecast to continue throughout the day, likely bringing upper 50s/low 60s dewpoints as far northwest as the Edwards Plateau before interacting with the front this afternoon. Heating will be tempered by abundant cloud cover and mid-level lapse rates will be poor. Even so, the anticipated low-level moisture coupled with cold mid-level temperatures should result in a relatively confined area of moderate buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE 500-1000 J/kg) tonight. Additionally, deep-layer vertical shear will be strong, resulting in environmental conditions that could support a strong/marginally severe storm or two. However, the overall threat will be mitigated by the undercutting nature of the cold front and likely storm interactions. The limited duration and isolated nature of the severe threat currently precludes the need for probabilities. Farther north and west, a large area of precipitation is expected to develop behind the front, supported by the strengthening southwesterly flow aloft and associated broad isentropic ascent. Cooling mid-level temperatures may result in minimal buoyancy (mostly after 03Z), with a few deeper convective elements within the precipitation shield capable of producing lightning amid freezing rain and/or sleet. ..Mosier/Broyles.. 01/23/2026 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026 Valid 261200Z - 311200Z ...DISCUSSION... Amplified mid-level flow will persist over the US through next week with troughing generally over the East and a building ridge to the West. This will favor continued northwesterly flow aloft and reinforcement of an extensive cold air outbreak and Arctic high pressure over the lower 48. With little to no inland moisture transport expected over the next week, severe weather is unlikely. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026 Valid 261200Z - 311200Z ...DISCUSSION... Amplified mid-level flow will persist over the US through next week with troughing generally over the East and a building ridge to the West. This will favor continued northwesterly flow aloft and reinforcement of an extensive cold air outbreak and Arctic high pressure over the lower 48. With little to no inland moisture transport expected over the next week, severe weather is unlikely. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026 Valid 261200Z - 311200Z ...DISCUSSION... Amplified mid-level flow will persist over the US through next week with troughing generally over the East and a building ridge to the West. This will favor continued northwesterly flow aloft and reinforcement of an extensive cold air outbreak and Arctic high pressure over the lower 48. With little to no inland moisture transport expected over the next week, severe weather is unlikely. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026 Valid 261200Z - 311200Z ...DISCUSSION... Amplified mid-level flow will persist over the US through next week with troughing generally over the East and a building ridge to the West. This will favor continued northwesterly flow aloft and reinforcement of an extensive cold air outbreak and Arctic high pressure over the lower 48. With little to no inland moisture transport expected over the next week, severe weather is unlikely. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible over portions of the central and eastern Gulf Coast Sunday. ...Synopsis... Intensifying mid-level troughing over the central US will continue to amplify as it moves eastward Sunday. Strong cyclonic flow aloft will overspread portions of the southern US as a second embedded perturbation skirts the central and eastern Gulf Coast before being consolidated into the broader upper trough. Ascent from this shortwave will allow a weak surface low to develop and shift east/northeastward over the Tennessee Valley before moving offshore of the Carolina coast early Monday. Attendant to the low, a strong arctic cold front will sweep eastward across the southern CONUS. Modified Gulf moisture will be in place, supporting weak instability and some potential for strong to severe storms. ...Gulf Coast... As the surface low moves onshore and deepens ahead of the advancing shortwave early Sunday, inland moisture advection (60s F surface dewpoints) is expected to increase over southeastern LA into southern MS/AL and the western FL Panhandle in the wake of a surface warm front lifting northward. Ongoing elevated convection near the advancing cold front will likely encounter a warming/moistening boundary layer sufficient for some intensification through the day across south-central AL into the FL panhandle and southwestern GA. Increasing southwesterly flow aloft (EBWD of 50-60 kt) will be favorable for some storm organization amidst weak buoyancy (MLCAPE ~ 500 J/kg). A broken band of storms along the cold front may pose a risk for isolated damaging gusts and brief tornado where the boundary layer can destabilize sufficiently inland south of the prominent cold air intrusion/damming and ongoing winter weather. The cold front will then continue offshore overnight with the severe risk diminishing as a much colder air mass envelops the eastern CONUS. ..Lyons.. 01/23/2026 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible over portions of the central and eastern Gulf Coast Sunday. ...Synopsis... Intensifying mid-level troughing over the central US will continue to amplify as it moves eastward Sunday. Strong cyclonic flow aloft will overspread portions of the southern US as a second embedded perturbation skirts the central and eastern Gulf Coast before being consolidated into the broader upper trough. Ascent from this shortwave will allow a weak surface low to develop and shift east/northeastward over the Tennessee Valley before moving offshore of the Carolina coast early Monday. Attendant to the low, a strong arctic cold front will sweep eastward across the southern CONUS. Modified Gulf moisture will be in place, supporting weak instability and some potential for strong to severe storms. ...Gulf Coast... As the surface low moves onshore and deepens ahead of the advancing shortwave early Sunday, inland moisture advection (60s F surface dewpoints) is expected to increase over southeastern LA into southern MS/AL and the western FL Panhandle in the wake of a surface warm front lifting northward. Ongoing elevated convection near the advancing cold front will likely encounter a warming/moistening boundary layer sufficient for some intensification through the day across south-central AL into the FL panhandle and southwestern GA. Increasing southwesterly flow aloft (EBWD of 50-60 kt) will be favorable for some storm organization amidst weak buoyancy (MLCAPE ~ 500 J/kg). A broken band of storms along the cold front may pose a risk for isolated damaging gusts and brief tornado where the boundary layer can destabilize sufficiently inland south of the prominent cold air intrusion/damming and ongoing winter weather. The cold front will then continue offshore overnight with the severe risk diminishing as a much colder air mass envelops the eastern CONUS. ..Lyons.. 01/23/2026 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible over portions of the central and eastern Gulf Coast Sunday. ...Synopsis... Intensifying mid-level troughing over the central US will continue to amplify as it moves eastward Sunday. Strong cyclonic flow aloft will overspread portions of the southern US as a second embedded perturbation skirts the central and eastern Gulf Coast before being consolidated into the broader upper trough. Ascent from this shortwave will allow a weak surface low to develop and shift east/northeastward over the Tennessee Valley before moving offshore of the Carolina coast early Monday. Attendant to the low, a strong arctic cold front will sweep eastward across the southern CONUS. Modified Gulf moisture will be in place, supporting weak instability and some potential for strong to severe storms. ...Gulf Coast... As the surface low moves onshore and deepens ahead of the advancing shortwave early Sunday, inland moisture advection (60s F surface dewpoints) is expected to increase over southeastern LA into southern MS/AL and the western FL Panhandle in the wake of a surface warm front lifting northward. Ongoing elevated convection near the advancing cold front will likely encounter a warming/moistening boundary layer sufficient for some intensification through the day across south-central AL into the FL panhandle and southwestern GA. Increasing southwesterly flow aloft (EBWD of 50-60 kt) will be favorable for some storm organization amidst weak buoyancy (MLCAPE ~ 500 J/kg). A broken band of storms along the cold front may pose a risk for isolated damaging gusts and brief tornado where the boundary layer can destabilize sufficiently inland south of the prominent cold air intrusion/damming and ongoing winter weather. The cold front will then continue offshore overnight with the severe risk diminishing as a much colder air mass envelops the eastern CONUS. ..Lyons.. 01/23/2026 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible over portions of the central and eastern Gulf Coast Sunday. ...Synopsis... Intensifying mid-level troughing over the central US will continue to amplify as it moves eastward Sunday. Strong cyclonic flow aloft will overspread portions of the southern US as a second embedded perturbation skirts the central and eastern Gulf Coast before being consolidated into the broader upper trough. Ascent from this shortwave will allow a weak surface low to develop and shift east/northeastward over the Tennessee Valley before moving offshore of the Carolina coast early Monday. Attendant to the low, a strong arctic cold front will sweep eastward across the southern CONUS. Modified Gulf moisture will be in place, supporting weak instability and some potential for strong to severe storms. ...Gulf Coast... As the surface low moves onshore and deepens ahead of the advancing shortwave early Sunday, inland moisture advection (60s F surface dewpoints) is expected to increase over southeastern LA into southern MS/AL and the western FL Panhandle in the wake of a surface warm front lifting northward. Ongoing elevated convection near the advancing cold front will likely encounter a warming/moistening boundary layer sufficient for some intensification through the day across south-central AL into the FL panhandle and southwestern GA. Increasing southwesterly flow aloft (EBWD of 50-60 kt) will be favorable for some storm organization amidst weak buoyancy (MLCAPE ~ 500 J/kg). A broken band of storms along the cold front may pose a risk for isolated damaging gusts and brief tornado where the boundary layer can destabilize sufficiently inland south of the prominent cold air intrusion/damming and ongoing winter weather. The cold front will then continue offshore overnight with the severe risk diminishing as a much colder air mass envelops the eastern CONUS. ..Lyons.. 01/23/2026 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Broad troughing across the central US will continue to bring several rounds of precipitation from the Plains into portions of the Eastern US on Saturday. In addition, a cold arctic air mass will be in place across much of the CONUS. Fire concerns will remain minimal given widespread cold and wet conditions. ..Thornton.. 01/23/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Broad troughing across the central US will continue to bring several rounds of precipitation from the Plains into portions of the Eastern US on Saturday. In addition, a cold arctic air mass will be in place across much of the CONUS. Fire concerns will remain minimal given widespread cold and wet conditions. ..Thornton.. 01/23/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Broad troughing across the central US will continue to bring several rounds of precipitation from the Plains into portions of the Eastern US on Saturday. In addition, a cold arctic air mass will be in place across much of the CONUS. Fire concerns will remain minimal given widespread cold and wet conditions. ..Thornton.. 01/23/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Broad troughing across the central US will continue to bring several rounds of precipitation from the Plains into portions of the Eastern US on Saturday. In addition, a cold arctic air mass will be in place across much of the CONUS. Fire concerns will remain minimal given widespread cold and wet conditions. ..Thornton.. 01/23/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to be low across the CONUS today. A mid-level trough and southward moving cold front will usher in cold conditions and widespread mix of precipitation into the central and southern Plains, improving dry fuels and keeping fire concerns low. ..Thornton.. 01/23/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more