SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to be low across the CONUS today. A mid-level trough and southward moving cold front will usher in cold conditions and widespread mix of precipitation into the central and southern Plains, improving dry fuels and keeping fire concerns low. ..Thornton.. 01/23/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to be low across the CONUS today. A mid-level trough and southward moving cold front will usher in cold conditions and widespread mix of precipitation into the central and southern Plains, improving dry fuels and keeping fire concerns low. ..Thornton.. 01/23/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to be low across the CONUS today. A mid-level trough and southward moving cold front will usher in cold conditions and widespread mix of precipitation into the central and southern Plains, improving dry fuels and keeping fire concerns low. ..Thornton.. 01/23/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not anticipated across the U.S. Saturday through Saturday night. ...Synopsis... The mid-level pattern over the CONUS is forecast to amplify significantly this weekend as initially split flow consolidates behind a departing East Coast upper trough. Several short wave perturbations (over the Southwest, northern Mexico, and southern Canada) will gradually consolidate into larger-scale mid-level troughing across the Rockies and Great Plains by late Saturday night. As upper troughing becomes established, a strong Arctic cold front will rapidly move south with high pressure (1045+ mb) building in its wake. An extensive cold intrusion will occur with significant latitudinal suppression of lee cyclogenesis to far northern Mex and the southern Gulf Coast. This will greatly limit inland moisture return. Still, strong lift in the form of isentropic ascent over top the front will support widespread winter precipitation (some possibly with isolated lightning) over the Plains and south-central US much of Saturday. ...South Texas Coast... As the strong Arctic high pressure building over the southern Plains forces the cold front to surge south, the Arctic air mass will rapidly undercut the a remnant warm sector over parts of Far South TX. Strong isentropic ascent over the shallow surface front will allow for modest elevated destabilization. However, poor mid-level lapse rates (6-6.5 C/km) and the overnight arrival of the more consolidated upper ascent should preclude the development of larger buoyancy. Thus, while a stronger storm is briefly possible along the immediate coast or elevated behind the front, the overall severe risk appears quite limited. ..Lyons.. 01/23/2026 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not anticipated across the U.S. Saturday through Saturday night. ...Synopsis... The mid-level pattern over the CONUS is forecast to amplify significantly this weekend as initially split flow consolidates behind a departing East Coast upper trough. Several short wave perturbations (over the Southwest, northern Mexico, and southern Canada) will gradually consolidate into larger-scale mid-level troughing across the Rockies and Great Plains by late Saturday night. As upper troughing becomes established, a strong Arctic cold front will rapidly move south with high pressure (1045+ mb) building in its wake. An extensive cold intrusion will occur with significant latitudinal suppression of lee cyclogenesis to far northern Mex and the southern Gulf Coast. This will greatly limit inland moisture return. Still, strong lift in the form of isentropic ascent over top the front will support widespread winter precipitation (some possibly with isolated lightning) over the Plains and south-central US much of Saturday. ...South Texas Coast... As the strong Arctic high pressure building over the southern Plains forces the cold front to surge south, the Arctic air mass will rapidly undercut the a remnant warm sector over parts of Far South TX. Strong isentropic ascent over the shallow surface front will allow for modest elevated destabilization. However, poor mid-level lapse rates (6-6.5 C/km) and the overnight arrival of the more consolidated upper ascent should preclude the development of larger buoyancy. Thus, while a stronger storm is briefly possible along the immediate coast or elevated behind the front, the overall severe risk appears quite limited. ..Lyons.. 01/23/2026 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not anticipated across the U.S. Saturday through Saturday night. ...Synopsis... The mid-level pattern over the CONUS is forecast to amplify significantly this weekend as initially split flow consolidates behind a departing East Coast upper trough. Several short wave perturbations (over the Southwest, northern Mexico, and southern Canada) will gradually consolidate into larger-scale mid-level troughing across the Rockies and Great Plains by late Saturday night. As upper troughing becomes established, a strong Arctic cold front will rapidly move south with high pressure (1045+ mb) building in its wake. An extensive cold intrusion will occur with significant latitudinal suppression of lee cyclogenesis to far northern Mex and the southern Gulf Coast. This will greatly limit inland moisture return. Still, strong lift in the form of isentropic ascent over top the front will support widespread winter precipitation (some possibly with isolated lightning) over the Plains and south-central US much of Saturday. ...South Texas Coast... As the strong Arctic high pressure building over the southern Plains forces the cold front to surge south, the Arctic air mass will rapidly undercut the a remnant warm sector over parts of Far South TX. Strong isentropic ascent over the shallow surface front will allow for modest elevated destabilization. However, poor mid-level lapse rates (6-6.5 C/km) and the overnight arrival of the more consolidated upper ascent should preclude the development of larger buoyancy. Thus, while a stronger storm is briefly possible along the immediate coast or elevated behind the front, the overall severe risk appears quite limited. ..Lyons.. 01/23/2026 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not anticipated across the U.S. Saturday through Saturday night. ...Synopsis... The mid-level pattern over the CONUS is forecast to amplify significantly this weekend as initially split flow consolidates behind a departing East Coast upper trough. Several short wave perturbations (over the Southwest, northern Mexico, and southern Canada) will gradually consolidate into larger-scale mid-level troughing across the Rockies and Great Plains by late Saturday night. As upper troughing becomes established, a strong Arctic cold front will rapidly move south with high pressure (1045+ mb) building in its wake. An extensive cold intrusion will occur with significant latitudinal suppression of lee cyclogenesis to far northern Mex and the southern Gulf Coast. This will greatly limit inland moisture return. Still, strong lift in the form of isentropic ascent over top the front will support widespread winter precipitation (some possibly with isolated lightning) over the Plains and south-central US much of Saturday. ...South Texas Coast... As the strong Arctic high pressure building over the southern Plains forces the cold front to surge south, the Arctic air mass will rapidly undercut the a remnant warm sector over parts of Far South TX. Strong isentropic ascent over the shallow surface front will allow for modest elevated destabilization. However, poor mid-level lapse rates (6-6.5 C/km) and the overnight arrival of the more consolidated upper ascent should preclude the development of larger buoyancy. Thus, while a stronger storm is briefly possible along the immediate coast or elevated behind the front, the overall severe risk appears quite limited. ..Lyons.. 01/23/2026 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2026 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered weak thunderstorm activity is likely today into tonight across the Texas Big Bend region into central Texas. ...Synopsis... Late-evening water-vapor imagery depicts increasing ascent across northern Mexico into the Southwest/Big Bend region of TX as an upper low off the southern CA coast begins to slowly shift east. At the surface, a cold front continues to push south across the Plains with modest moisture return ongoing along the TX Coastal Plain. Precipitation is expected to slowly increase from the Big Bend region northeastward into the southern Plains/Ozark Plateau through the day as isentropic ascent strengthens across central TX. Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development is anticipated along and north of the cold front as it impinges on a plume of returning moisture. ...Big Bend Region to Central Texas... Moisture return of mid 50s to low 60s dewpoints along and south of the I-10 corridor and into the Big Bend region is expected by evening and should support a swath of 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected along the front across the Edwards Plateau by early evening, spreading east as the front pushes further into the unstable air mass. While a few storms may initially be surface-based, northeastward storm motions will quickly displace any deep convection onto the cool side of the boundary. Wind profiles are expected to strengthen through the day in response to the approaching upper wave, and could support effective shear values on the order of 40 knots. Despite this, a combination of modest buoyancy profiles (lifted indices generally -2 to -3 C), rapid undercutting by the front, and a propensity for storm interactions/upscale growth should largely mitigate the potential for severe convection. A few CAM solutions, notably the 00z HRRR, hint at the potential for upscale growth of a surface-based convective cluster as it propagates eastward along the front with an attendant threat for damaging winds. While plausible given the aforementioned CAPE/shear parameter space, the lack of supporting signal in other CAM solutions and ensemble/calibrated guidance, along with unfavorable phasing with the diurnal cycle, suggest that this is a relatively low probability scenario. ..Moore/Thornton.. 01/23/2026 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2026 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered weak thunderstorm activity is likely today into tonight across the Texas Big Bend region into central Texas. ...Synopsis... Late-evening water-vapor imagery depicts increasing ascent across northern Mexico into the Southwest/Big Bend region of TX as an upper low off the southern CA coast begins to slowly shift east. At the surface, a cold front continues to push south across the Plains with modest moisture return ongoing along the TX Coastal Plain. Precipitation is expected to slowly increase from the Big Bend region northeastward into the southern Plains/Ozark Plateau through the day as isentropic ascent strengthens across central TX. Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development is anticipated along and north of the cold front as it impinges on a plume of returning moisture. ...Big Bend Region to Central Texas... Moisture return of mid 50s to low 60s dewpoints along and south of the I-10 corridor and into the Big Bend region is expected by evening and should support a swath of 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected along the front across the Edwards Plateau by early evening, spreading east as the front pushes further into the unstable air mass. While a few storms may initially be surface-based, northeastward storm motions will quickly displace any deep convection onto the cool side of the boundary. Wind profiles are expected to strengthen through the day in response to the approaching upper wave, and could support effective shear values on the order of 40 knots. Despite this, a combination of modest buoyancy profiles (lifted indices generally -2 to -3 C), rapid undercutting by the front, and a propensity for storm interactions/upscale growth should largely mitigate the potential for severe convection. A few CAM solutions, notably the 00z HRRR, hint at the potential for upscale growth of a surface-based convective cluster as it propagates eastward along the front with an attendant threat for damaging winds. While plausible given the aforementioned CAPE/shear parameter space, the lack of supporting signal in other CAM solutions and ensemble/calibrated guidance, along with unfavorable phasing with the diurnal cycle, suggest that this is a relatively low probability scenario. ..Moore/Thornton.. 01/23/2026 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2026 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered weak thunderstorm activity is likely today into tonight across the Texas Big Bend region into central Texas. ...Synopsis... Late-evening water-vapor imagery depicts increasing ascent across northern Mexico into the Southwest/Big Bend region of TX as an upper low off the southern CA coast begins to slowly shift east. At the surface, a cold front continues to push south across the Plains with modest moisture return ongoing along the TX Coastal Plain. Precipitation is expected to slowly increase from the Big Bend region northeastward into the southern Plains/Ozark Plateau through the day as isentropic ascent strengthens across central TX. Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development is anticipated along and north of the cold front as it impinges on a plume of returning moisture. ...Big Bend Region to Central Texas... Moisture return of mid 50s to low 60s dewpoints along and south of the I-10 corridor and into the Big Bend region is expected by evening and should support a swath of 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected along the front across the Edwards Plateau by early evening, spreading east as the front pushes further into the unstable air mass. While a few storms may initially be surface-based, northeastward storm motions will quickly displace any deep convection onto the cool side of the boundary. Wind profiles are expected to strengthen through the day in response to the approaching upper wave, and could support effective shear values on the order of 40 knots. Despite this, a combination of modest buoyancy profiles (lifted indices generally -2 to -3 C), rapid undercutting by the front, and a propensity for storm interactions/upscale growth should largely mitigate the potential for severe convection. A few CAM solutions, notably the 00z HRRR, hint at the potential for upscale growth of a surface-based convective cluster as it propagates eastward along the front with an attendant threat for damaging winds. While plausible given the aforementioned CAPE/shear parameter space, the lack of supporting signal in other CAM solutions and ensemble/calibrated guidance, along with unfavorable phasing with the diurnal cycle, suggest that this is a relatively low probability scenario. ..Moore/Thornton.. 01/23/2026 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2026 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered weak thunderstorm activity is likely today into tonight across the Texas Big Bend region into central Texas. ...Synopsis... Late-evening water-vapor imagery depicts increasing ascent across northern Mexico into the Southwest/Big Bend region of TX as an upper low off the southern CA coast begins to slowly shift east. At the surface, a cold front continues to push south across the Plains with modest moisture return ongoing along the TX Coastal Plain. Precipitation is expected to slowly increase from the Big Bend region northeastward into the southern Plains/Ozark Plateau through the day as isentropic ascent strengthens across central TX. Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development is anticipated along and north of the cold front as it impinges on a plume of returning moisture. ...Big Bend Region to Central Texas... Moisture return of mid 50s to low 60s dewpoints along and south of the I-10 corridor and into the Big Bend region is expected by evening and should support a swath of 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected along the front across the Edwards Plateau by early evening, spreading east as the front pushes further into the unstable air mass. While a few storms may initially be surface-based, northeastward storm motions will quickly displace any deep convection onto the cool side of the boundary. Wind profiles are expected to strengthen through the day in response to the approaching upper wave, and could support effective shear values on the order of 40 knots. Despite this, a combination of modest buoyancy profiles (lifted indices generally -2 to -3 C), rapid undercutting by the front, and a propensity for storm interactions/upscale growth should largely mitigate the potential for severe convection. A few CAM solutions, notably the 00z HRRR, hint at the potential for upscale growth of a surface-based convective cluster as it propagates eastward along the front with an attendant threat for damaging winds. While plausible given the aforementioned CAPE/shear parameter space, the lack of supporting signal in other CAM solutions and ensemble/calibrated guidance, along with unfavorable phasing with the diurnal cycle, suggest that this is a relatively low probability scenario. ..Moore/Thornton.. 01/23/2026 Read more

MD 0033 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF UPSTATE NEW YORK
Mesoscale Discussion 0033 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0517 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2026 Areas affected...portions of Upstate New York Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 222317Z - 230315Z SUMMARY...Heavy lake effect snow band to persist with potential for rates 1-2"/hr through the evening. DISCUSSION...A band of lake effect snow continues along and east of Lake Ontario across portions of the Tug Hill Plateau. Heavy snow has been reported within this band periodically through the afternoon in Watertown and Fort Drum, with visibility <1/4 mi at times. This band has also produced occasional lightning. Westerly surface flow is providing optimal long fetch axis across Lake Ontario amid steep lapse rates (7-8 C/km at 0-3 km). In addition, a mid-level trough across Canada is shifting southward, with very cool air aloft and forcing for ascent overspreading the region. Hi-res guidance suggests that rates will increase through the evening, with potential for 1-2"/hr rates. This band will likely persist through the overnight, with some north/south shift possible. ..Thornton.. 01/22/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BUF... LAT...LON 43747683 44177596 44337571 44407497 44327414 44047412 43767484 43587593 43667654 43747683 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0642 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2026 Valid 230100Z - 231200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the country through tonight. ...Synopsis... Lightning activity off the southeastern FL coast has diminished over the past several hours amid weakening broad-scale ascent and modest mid-level height rises. While sporadic weak convection remains possible off the coast, the overall thunderstorm potential appears sufficiently limited to warrant removal of thunder probabilities. Elsewhere across the country, 00z RAOBs sampled mostly dry and stable conditions that will largely mitigate thunderstorm potential. A few recent model runs hint that 50-100 MUCAPE may develop across southern AZ/NM as broad-scale lift increases ahead of the upper wave currently over southern CA. Forecast equilibrium temperatures near -20 C could support sporadic lightning flashes during the 08-12 UTC time frame. However, consensus among guidance is very limited on this potential, and the recent 00z TUS sounding suggests substantial moistening within the lowest 300 mb is required before thunderstorms can be supported. ..Moore.. 01/23/2026 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0642 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2026 Valid 230100Z - 231200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the country through tonight. ...Synopsis... Lightning activity off the southeastern FL coast has diminished over the past several hours amid weakening broad-scale ascent and modest mid-level height rises. While sporadic weak convection remains possible off the coast, the overall thunderstorm potential appears sufficiently limited to warrant removal of thunder probabilities. Elsewhere across the country, 00z RAOBs sampled mostly dry and stable conditions that will largely mitigate thunderstorm potential. A few recent model runs hint that 50-100 MUCAPE may develop across southern AZ/NM as broad-scale lift increases ahead of the upper wave currently over southern CA. Forecast equilibrium temperatures near -20 C could support sporadic lightning flashes during the 08-12 UTC time frame. However, consensus among guidance is very limited on this potential, and the recent 00z TUS sounding suggests substantial moistening within the lowest 300 mb is required before thunderstorms can be supported. ..Moore.. 01/23/2026 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0642 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2026 Valid 230100Z - 231200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the country through tonight. ...Synopsis... Lightning activity off the southeastern FL coast has diminished over the past several hours amid weakening broad-scale ascent and modest mid-level height rises. While sporadic weak convection remains possible off the coast, the overall thunderstorm potential appears sufficiently limited to warrant removal of thunder probabilities. Elsewhere across the country, 00z RAOBs sampled mostly dry and stable conditions that will largely mitigate thunderstorm potential. A few recent model runs hint that 50-100 MUCAPE may develop across southern AZ/NM as broad-scale lift increases ahead of the upper wave currently over southern CA. Forecast equilibrium temperatures near -20 C could support sporadic lightning flashes during the 08-12 UTC time frame. However, consensus among guidance is very limited on this potential, and the recent 00z TUS sounding suggests substantial moistening within the lowest 300 mb is required before thunderstorms can be supported. ..Moore.. 01/23/2026 Read more

No watches are valid as of Thu Jan 22 23:20:02 UTC 2026.

MD 0033 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF UPSTATE NEW YORK
Mesoscale Discussion 0033 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0517 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2026 Areas affected...portions of Upstate New York Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 222317Z - 230315Z SUMMARY...Heavy lake effect snow band to persist with potential for rates 1-2"/hr through the evening. DISCUSSION...A band of lake effect snow continues along and east of Lake Ontario across portions of the Tug Hill Plateau. Heavy snow has been reported within this band periodically through the afternoon in Watertown and Fort Drum, with visibility <1/4 mi at times. This band has also produced occasional lightning. Westerly surface flow is providing optimal long fetch axis across Lake Ontario amid steep lapse rates (7-8 C/km at 0-3 km). In addition, a mid-level trough across Canada is shifting southward, with very cool air aloft and forcing for ascent overspreading the region. Hi-res guidance suggests that rates will increase through the evening, with potential for 1-2"/hr rates. This band will likely persist through the overnight, with some north/south shift possible. ..Thornton.. 01/22/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BUF... LAT...LON 43747683 44177596 44337571 44407497 44327414 44047412 43767484 43587593 43667654 43747683 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Jan 22 22:13:02 UTC 2026.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2026 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z ...Synopsis... A dynamic mid-level trough and attendant large scale ascent will move across the Southern U.S. through early next week while a surface trough across south TX on Day 3/Saturday translates eastward evolves into a deepening surface low before reaching the East Coast on Day 5/Monday. A relatively shallow cold air mass in place across the Southern U.S. will yield a widespread mix of precipitation, stretching from the Southwestern to the Northeast by early next week. This coupled with lingering cold temperatures, surface high pressure and persistent mean upper-level troughing will likely limit fire weather concerns across the eastern U.S. An upper-level ridge building back over the western U.S. will maintain primarily dry conditions over the Desert Southwest with above normal temperatures returning to much of the region by next week. Although some breezy north winds aligning with low relative humidity could occur Day 4/Sunday with the passage of a cold front, overall fuels remains largely unreceptive, precluding introduction of critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 01/22/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2026 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z ...Synopsis... A dynamic mid-level trough and attendant large scale ascent will move across the Southern U.S. through early next week while a surface trough across south TX on Day 3/Saturday translates eastward evolves into a deepening surface low before reaching the East Coast on Day 5/Monday. A relatively shallow cold air mass in place across the Southern U.S. will yield a widespread mix of precipitation, stretching from the Southwestern to the Northeast by early next week. This coupled with lingering cold temperatures, surface high pressure and persistent mean upper-level troughing will likely limit fire weather concerns across the eastern U.S. An upper-level ridge building back over the western U.S. will maintain primarily dry conditions over the Desert Southwest with above normal temperatures returning to much of the region by next week. Although some breezy north winds aligning with low relative humidity could occur Day 4/Sunday with the passage of a cold front, overall fuels remains largely unreceptive, precluding introduction of critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 01/22/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more