SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude shortwave trough and accompanying speed maximum will cross the central Rockies during the afternoon, while an attendant surface low tracks south-southeastward along the northern/central High Plains. Related downslope flow will yield 10-15 percent RH across much of the central High Plains, where around 20 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) are expected. These dry/windy conditions will favor elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions over northeastern CO, southwestern NE, and northwest KS. A separate corridor of elevated fire-weather conditions is expected in the lee of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains in southern CO, with locally critical conditions possible within the gap flow areas. Between these two corridors, recent snowfall should limit fire-weather concerns. Elsewhere, modestly breezy northeasterly surface winds are expected amid a dry antecedent air mass across parts of the western and central FL Peninsula, where locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. ..Weinman.. 01/20/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude shortwave trough and accompanying speed maximum will cross the central Rockies during the afternoon, while an attendant surface low tracks south-southeastward along the northern/central High Plains. Related downslope flow will yield 10-15 percent RH across much of the central High Plains, where around 20 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) are expected. These dry/windy conditions will favor elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions over northeastern CO, southwestern NE, and northwest KS. A separate corridor of elevated fire-weather conditions is expected in the lee of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains in southern CO, with locally critical conditions possible within the gap flow areas. Between these two corridors, recent snowfall should limit fire-weather concerns. Elsewhere, modestly breezy northeasterly surface winds are expected amid a dry antecedent air mass across parts of the western and central FL Peninsula, where locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. ..Weinman.. 01/20/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1210 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorm are possible Wednesday and Wednesday night across portions of southeast Texas and Louisiana. ...Synopsis... Broad upper troughing will envelop much of the CONUS on Wednesday. An upper shortwave trough embedded within the large-scale trough will pivot east across the south-central to southeast states on Wednesday into early Thursday. As this occurs, some minor modified Gulf moisture will impinge on southeast TX into LA/MS ahead of a southward sagging cold front. This will support minor destabilization (MUCAPE around 100-300 J/kg) from southeast TX into LA. Cool temperatures aloft and modest large-scale ascent may be sufficient for isolated weak thunderstorm activity late Wednesday afternoon into the nighttime hours. Severe storms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 01/20/2026 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1210 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorm are possible Wednesday and Wednesday night across portions of southeast Texas and Louisiana. ...Synopsis... Broad upper troughing will envelop much of the CONUS on Wednesday. An upper shortwave trough embedded within the large-scale trough will pivot east across the south-central to southeast states on Wednesday into early Thursday. As this occurs, some minor modified Gulf moisture will impinge on southeast TX into LA/MS ahead of a southward sagging cold front. This will support minor destabilization (MUCAPE around 100-300 J/kg) from southeast TX into LA. Cool temperatures aloft and modest large-scale ascent may be sufficient for isolated weak thunderstorm activity late Wednesday afternoon into the nighttime hours. Severe storms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 01/20/2026 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1210 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorm are possible Wednesday and Wednesday night across portions of southeast Texas and Louisiana. ...Synopsis... Broad upper troughing will envelop much of the CONUS on Wednesday. An upper shortwave trough embedded within the large-scale trough will pivot east across the south-central to southeast states on Wednesday into early Thursday. As this occurs, some minor modified Gulf moisture will impinge on southeast TX into LA/MS ahead of a southward sagging cold front. This will support minor destabilization (MUCAPE around 100-300 J/kg) from southeast TX into LA. Cool temperatures aloft and modest large-scale ascent may be sufficient for isolated weak thunderstorm activity late Wednesday afternoon into the nighttime hours. Severe storms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 01/20/2026 Read more

MD 0029 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO
Mesoscale Discussion 0029 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0824 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2026 Areas affected...Downwind of Lake Ontario Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 200224Z - 200830Z SUMMARY...A lake effect snow band will gradually intensify tonight, with rates eventually approaching 2-4 inches per hour downwind of Lake Ontario. DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery from KTYX shows gradually organizing lake effect snow bands extending downwind of Lake Ontario. This is in response to subtle veering of uni-directional boundary-layer flow (sampled by KTYX VWP) and a favorable fetch developing across the long axis of Lake Ontario. This trend will continue over the next few hours, as a low-level cyclone and southward-extending surface trough continue advancing east-northeastward across Quebec. Additionally, cooling temperatures aloft (around -31C at 700 mb) will result in a deepening convective boundary layer -- further aiding in the intensification of lake effect snow bands extending across the Tug Hill Plateau and vicinity. Heavy snowfall rates of around 2-4 inches per hour are expected to begin in the 04-06Z time frame, and should continue through the early morning hours. ..Weinman.. 01/20/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BUF... LAT...LON 43947626 43977539 43857511 43537507 43387524 43387618 43467640 43667642 43947626 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2026 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. today or tonight. ...DISCUSSION... A large-scale cyclonic flow pattern will remain in place across the U.S. today. At the surface, a large area of high pressure will be located over the central and eastern U.S. This dry and cold airmass will make conditions unfavorable for thunderstorm development over the continental U.S. today and tonight. ..Broyles/Weinman.. 01/20/2026 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2026 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. today or tonight. ...DISCUSSION... A large-scale cyclonic flow pattern will remain in place across the U.S. today. At the surface, a large area of high pressure will be located over the central and eastern U.S. This dry and cold airmass will make conditions unfavorable for thunderstorm development over the continental U.S. today and tonight. ..Broyles/Weinman.. 01/20/2026 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2026 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. today or tonight. ...DISCUSSION... A large-scale cyclonic flow pattern will remain in place across the U.S. today. At the surface, a large area of high pressure will be located over the central and eastern U.S. This dry and cold airmass will make conditions unfavorable for thunderstorm development over the continental U.S. today and tonight. ..Broyles/Weinman.. 01/20/2026 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0653 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2026 Valid 200100Z - 201200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. today or tonight. ...DISCUSSION... A large-scale cyclonic flow pattern will remain in place across the U.S. this evening and tonight. At the surface, a cold and dry airmass within a large area of high pressure will be in place over much of the nation. As a result, thunderstorms will not develop across the continental U.S. through daybreak on Tuesday. ..Broyles.. 01/20/2026 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0653 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2026 Valid 200100Z - 201200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. today or tonight. ...DISCUSSION... A large-scale cyclonic flow pattern will remain in place across the U.S. this evening and tonight. At the surface, a cold and dry airmass within a large area of high pressure will be in place over much of the nation. As a result, thunderstorms will not develop across the continental U.S. through daybreak on Tuesday. ..Broyles.. 01/20/2026 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0653 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2026 Valid 200100Z - 201200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. today or tonight. ...DISCUSSION... A large-scale cyclonic flow pattern will remain in place across the U.S. this evening and tonight. At the surface, a cold and dry airmass within a large area of high pressure will be in place over much of the nation. As a result, thunderstorms will not develop across the continental U.S. through daybreak on Tuesday. ..Broyles.. 01/20/2026 Read more

No watches are valid as of Mon Jan 19 22:10:02 UTC 2026.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Jan 19 22:10:02 UTC 2026.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2026 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z ...Synopsis... Reduced fire weather concerns are expected across CONUS through early next week. An arctic air mass intrusion begins Day 4/Thursday across the Northern Plains as upper-level troughing impinges on coastal California. The upper-level trough moves into the Southwest and Southern Plains by Day 5/Friday, interacting with deeper Gulf moisture to support expansive precipitation across much of the Southern U.S. through the weekend as the trough translates eastward. The lingering cold and stable air mass across the eastern U.S. along with likely widespread rain and potential snow over much of the Southern U.S. should mitigate the overall fire weather threat through early next week. ..Williams.. 01/19/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2026 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z ...Synopsis... Reduced fire weather concerns are expected across CONUS through early next week. An arctic air mass intrusion begins Day 4/Thursday across the Northern Plains as upper-level troughing impinges on coastal California. The upper-level trough moves into the Southwest and Southern Plains by Day 5/Friday, interacting with deeper Gulf moisture to support expansive precipitation across much of the Southern U.S. through the weekend as the trough translates eastward. The lingering cold and stable air mass across the eastern U.S. along with likely widespread rain and potential snow over much of the Southern U.S. should mitigate the overall fire weather threat through early next week. ..Williams.. 01/19/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2026 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z ...Synopsis... Reduced fire weather concerns are expected across CONUS through early next week. An arctic air mass intrusion begins Day 4/Thursday across the Northern Plains as upper-level troughing impinges on coastal California. The upper-level trough moves into the Southwest and Southern Plains by Day 5/Friday, interacting with deeper Gulf moisture to support expansive precipitation across much of the Southern U.S. through the weekend as the trough translates eastward. The lingering cold and stable air mass across the eastern U.S. along with likely widespread rain and potential snow over much of the Southern U.S. should mitigate the overall fire weather threat through early next week. ..Williams.. 01/19/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2026 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z ...Synopsis... Reduced fire weather concerns are expected across CONUS through early next week. An arctic air mass intrusion begins Day 4/Thursday across the Northern Plains as upper-level troughing impinges on coastal California. The upper-level trough moves into the Southwest and Southern Plains by Day 5/Friday, interacting with deeper Gulf moisture to support expansive precipitation across much of the Southern U.S. through the weekend as the trough translates eastward. The lingering cold and stable air mass across the eastern U.S. along with likely widespread rain and potential snow over much of the Southern U.S. should mitigate the overall fire weather threat through early next week. ..Williams.. 01/19/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2026 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...Central High Plains... An approaching mid-level wave and associated increasing northwest flow aloft, coinciding with a deepening surface low in the lee of the Southern Rockies will support downslope enhanced west/northwest surface winds across portions of the central High Plains Tuesday. Only minor changes were needed to the existing Elevated highlights across far northeastern CO, extreme southeastern WY, southwestern NE and far northwestern KS to account for recent snowfall from the CO Front Range into western KS. Farther south, downslope enhanced drying and warming should result in relative humidity as low as 10 percent Tuesday. This aligned with sustained west winds of 15-20 mph and dry fuels will support at least elevated fire weather conditions for several hours in the lee of the Sangre De Cristo Range. Locally critical conditions are possible where wind speeds of 25 mph develop in favored terrain gaps. Thus, Elevated highlights were introduced across portions of south-central CO. ..Williams.. 01/19/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0134 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2026/ ...Synopsis... Embedded within a belt of enhanced northwest flow aloft, a midlevel impulse and related jet streak will overspread the northern/central Rockies and adjacent High Plains during the afternoon. At the same time, an accompanying surface low will track southeastward along the northern/central High Plains. This will result in a tightening pressure gradient and 20-25 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) across parts of the central High Plains. The combination of these winds and around 15-20 percent RH will favor elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. Preceding snowfall in the vicinity (especially along the southern flank of the Elevated area) does cast some uncertainty on the overall fire risk, and fuel trends will be monitored for future adjustments to these highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2026 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...Central High Plains... An approaching mid-level wave and associated increasing northwest flow aloft, coinciding with a deepening surface low in the lee of the Southern Rockies will support downslope enhanced west/northwest surface winds across portions of the central High Plains Tuesday. Only minor changes were needed to the existing Elevated highlights across far northeastern CO, extreme southeastern WY, southwestern NE and far northwestern KS to account for recent snowfall from the CO Front Range into western KS. Farther south, downslope enhanced drying and warming should result in relative humidity as low as 10 percent Tuesday. This aligned with sustained west winds of 15-20 mph and dry fuels will support at least elevated fire weather conditions for several hours in the lee of the Sangre De Cristo Range. Locally critical conditions are possible where wind speeds of 25 mph develop in favored terrain gaps. Thus, Elevated highlights were introduced across portions of south-central CO. ..Williams.. 01/19/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0134 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2026/ ...Synopsis... Embedded within a belt of enhanced northwest flow aloft, a midlevel impulse and related jet streak will overspread the northern/central Rockies and adjacent High Plains during the afternoon. At the same time, an accompanying surface low will track southeastward along the northern/central High Plains. This will result in a tightening pressure gradient and 20-25 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) across parts of the central High Plains. The combination of these winds and around 15-20 percent RH will favor elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. Preceding snowfall in the vicinity (especially along the southern flank of the Elevated area) does cast some uncertainty on the overall fire risk, and fuel trends will be monitored for future adjustments to these highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more