Storm Prediction Center

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Storm Prediction Center
Updated: 10 weeks 3 days ago

SPC Jan 24, 2026 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

Sat, 2026-01-24 04:58
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026 Valid 271200Z - 011200Z ...DISCUSSION... Amplified mid-level flow will persist over the US through the remainder of the extended forecast period. Continued troughing in the eastern US will be supported by the arrival of multiple perturbations from southern Canada over the next week. At the same time, strong ridging developing over the West will favor northwesterly flow aloft over the central States. This will allow for multiple reinforcing surges of cold air to replenish a cold, dry and stable air mass. Thus, severe thunderstorms are unlikely through day 8. Read more

SPC Jan 24, 2026 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

Sat, 2026-01-24 04:58
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026 Valid 271200Z - 011200Z ...DISCUSSION... Amplified mid-level flow will persist over the US through the remainder of the extended forecast period. Continued troughing in the eastern US will be supported by the arrival of multiple perturbations from southern Canada over the next week. At the same time, strong ridging developing over the West will favor northwesterly flow aloft over the central States. This will allow for multiple reinforcing surges of cold air to replenish a cold, dry and stable air mass. Thus, severe thunderstorms are unlikely through day 8. Read more

SPC Jan 24, 2026 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

Sat, 2026-01-24 03:32
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms appear unlikely Monday. ...Synopsis... Mid-level troughing and strong cyclonic flow aloft will shift southward over the US before gradually moving offshore Monday. A second trough is expected to move south out of Canada into the Great Lakes as it also intensifies. The mid-level flow pattern is forecast to continue to amplify with troughing persisting over the eastern US. In turn, ridging is forecast to build over the central and western portions of the country with increasingly strong northwesterly flow. At the surface, a robust and widespread Arctic air mass with strong high pressure will dominate the lower 48 as a cold front moves offshore into the Atlantic and down the FL Peninsula. Widespread winter weather and cold temperatures will largely preclude robust inland surface moisture outside of coastal south FL. However, weak lapse rates and only glancing ascent suggests thunderstorm potential here is low. Thus, thunderstorms and severe weather appear unlikely over the US on Monday. ..Lyons.. 01/24/2026 Read more

SPC Jan 24, 2026 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

Sat, 2026-01-24 03:32
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms appear unlikely Monday. ...Synopsis... Mid-level troughing and strong cyclonic flow aloft will shift southward over the US before gradually moving offshore Monday. A second trough is expected to move south out of Canada into the Great Lakes as it also intensifies. The mid-level flow pattern is forecast to continue to amplify with troughing persisting over the eastern US. In turn, ridging is forecast to build over the central and western portions of the country with increasingly strong northwesterly flow. At the surface, a robust and widespread Arctic air mass with strong high pressure will dominate the lower 48 as a cold front moves offshore into the Atlantic and down the FL Peninsula. Widespread winter weather and cold temperatures will largely preclude robust inland surface moisture outside of coastal south FL. However, weak lapse rates and only glancing ascent suggests thunderstorm potential here is low. Thus, thunderstorms and severe weather appear unlikely over the US on Monday. ..Lyons.. 01/24/2026 Read more

SPC Jan 24, 2026 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

Sat, 2026-01-24 03:32
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms appear unlikely Monday. ...Synopsis... Mid-level troughing and strong cyclonic flow aloft will shift southward over the US before gradually moving offshore Monday. A second trough is expected to move south out of Canada into the Great Lakes as it also intensifies. The mid-level flow pattern is forecast to continue to amplify with troughing persisting over the eastern US. In turn, ridging is forecast to build over the central and western portions of the country with increasingly strong northwesterly flow. At the surface, a robust and widespread Arctic air mass with strong high pressure will dominate the lower 48 as a cold front moves offshore into the Atlantic and down the FL Peninsula. Widespread winter weather and cold temperatures will largely preclude robust inland surface moisture outside of coastal south FL. However, weak lapse rates and only glancing ascent suggests thunderstorm potential here is low. Thus, thunderstorms and severe weather appear unlikely over the US on Monday. ..Lyons.. 01/24/2026 Read more

SPC Jan 24, 2026 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

Sat, 2026-01-24 03:32
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms appear unlikely Monday. ...Synopsis... Mid-level troughing and strong cyclonic flow aloft will shift southward over the US before gradually moving offshore Monday. A second trough is expected to move south out of Canada into the Great Lakes as it also intensifies. The mid-level flow pattern is forecast to continue to amplify with troughing persisting over the eastern US. In turn, ridging is forecast to build over the central and western portions of the country with increasingly strong northwesterly flow. At the surface, a robust and widespread Arctic air mass with strong high pressure will dominate the lower 48 as a cold front moves offshore into the Atlantic and down the FL Peninsula. Widespread winter weather and cold temperatures will largely preclude robust inland surface moisture outside of coastal south FL. However, weak lapse rates and only glancing ascent suggests thunderstorm potential here is low. Thus, thunderstorms and severe weather appear unlikely over the US on Monday. ..Lyons.. 01/24/2026 Read more

SPC Jan 24, 2026 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

Sat, 2026-01-24 03:32
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms appear unlikely Monday. ...Synopsis... Mid-level troughing and strong cyclonic flow aloft will shift southward over the US before gradually moving offshore Monday. A second trough is expected to move south out of Canada into the Great Lakes as it also intensifies. The mid-level flow pattern is forecast to continue to amplify with troughing persisting over the eastern US. In turn, ridging is forecast to build over the central and western portions of the country with increasingly strong northwesterly flow. At the surface, a robust and widespread Arctic air mass with strong high pressure will dominate the lower 48 as a cold front moves offshore into the Atlantic and down the FL Peninsula. Widespread winter weather and cold temperatures will largely preclude robust inland surface moisture outside of coastal south FL. However, weak lapse rates and only glancing ascent suggests thunderstorm potential here is low. Thus, thunderstorms and severe weather appear unlikely over the US on Monday. ..Lyons.. 01/24/2026 Read more

SPC MD 38

Sat, 2026-01-24 03:32
MD 0038 CONCERNING FREEZING RAIN FOR THE TEXARKANA REGION INTO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND FAR WESTERN MISSISSIPPI
Mesoscale Discussion 0038 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026 Areas affected...The Texarkana Region into southern Arkansas and far western Mississippi Concerning...Freezing rain Valid 240526Z - 241030Z SUMMARY...Freezing rain rates are expected to increase across the Texarkana region into southern Arkansas and far western Mississippi through the overnight hours. Freezing rain rates between 0.05 to 0.1 inch/hour are possible. DISCUSSION...Surface temperatures across southern AR into the Texarkana region are now mostly below freezing despite a slight abatement of near-surface cold air advection. Several ASOS/AWOS stations, mPING reports, and web cams have been reporting predominantly freezing rain with pockets of embedded sleet over the past couple of hours. Looking upstream, a heavier precipitation band is noted migrating eastward across north TX/southern OK attendant to a focused zone of isentropic and frontogenetical ascent at around 850 mb. This uptick in low-level warm advection is noted in regional VWPs as a steady enlargement of the 0-3 km hodograph, which supports recent analyses and forecasts. Further strengthening of warm advection/frontogenetical ascent at around the 850 mb level is expected per recent guidance as the precipitation band spreads east into southern AR over the next 4-6 hours. Strong ascent combined with persistent warm temperatures at around 700 mb will maintain a broad swath of freezing rain across the Texarkana region into southern AR, and will likely promote the onset of freezing rain to far western MS. Freezing rain rates on the order of 0.05 inch/hour appear likely, but localized rates up to 0.1 inch/hour appear possible across southwest/south-central AR where CAM consensus for the past few hours has depicted the highest QPF amounts (which appear reasonable based on observed banding upstream). ..Moore.. 01/24/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD... LAT...LON 32889136 32999414 33229473 33589517 33919537 34229537 34489517 34579469 34619391 34609290 34609163 34559112 34399070 34179042 33959036 33219058 32999086 32889136 Read more

SPC Jan 24, 2026 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

Sat, 2026-01-24 02:16
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0113 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN GULF COAST... CORRECTED FOR GRAPHIC ERROR ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the eastern Gulf Coast states Sunday into Sunday night. Damaging gusts are expected to be the primary risk. ...Synopsis... A broad positively tilted larger-scale mid-level trough over the central US is forecast to intensify Sunday as it moves eastward and absorbs several smaller perturbations ejecting from the Rockies and western CONUS. The most prominent of these smaller-scale features will move from the Sabine Valley and central Gulf Coast, northeastward into the Tennessee Valley and central Appalachians by Monday night. Amplification of the overall trough and southwesterly cyclonic flow aloft will support the development of a weak surface low ahead of the cold front moving into the Southeast. Southerly flow ahead of this low will result in modest modification inland of a remnant Gulf air mass south of a large Arctic intrusion/cold air damming. Weak buoyancy and strong forcing will likely support a band of thunderstorms with the potential for some strong/severe storms through parts of the eastern Gulf Coast Sunday afternoon. ...Eastern Gulf Coast States... Gradual destabilization is expected early Sunday first over southern LA and MS as the surface low and warm front lift northward. Strong isentropic ascent over the shallow Arctic air mass will likely support a band of initially elevated convection from portions of East TX into southern LA and MS gradually spreading eastward. With time, these storms will encounter the northward advancing modified warm sector as the cold front impinges on the western edge of the moisture return through the day. Weak destabilization peaking around 500-750 J/kg of MLCAPE will overlap with strong deep-layer shear of 50-60 kt. This will allow for some intensification/organization of the ongoing storms where the near surface air mass can destabilize. Likely linear in nature owing to the strong frontal forcing, a few stronger segments appear plausible, especially across southeastern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle into southwestern Georgia late Sunday afternoon and evening. Damaging gusts would be primary risk given 50-70 kt flow in the lowest 1-3 km AGL. A brief QLCS tornado is also possible, but less certain as the low-level wind field gradually veers through the day as the main ascent lifts away to the north. ..Lyons.. 01/24/2026 Read more

SPC Jan 24, 2026 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

Sat, 2026-01-24 02:16
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0113 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN GULF COAST... CORRECTED FOR GRAPHIC ERROR ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the eastern Gulf Coast states Sunday into Sunday night. Damaging gusts are expected to be the primary risk. ...Synopsis... A broad positively tilted larger-scale mid-level trough over the central US is forecast to intensify Sunday as it moves eastward and absorbs several smaller perturbations ejecting from the Rockies and western CONUS. The most prominent of these smaller-scale features will move from the Sabine Valley and central Gulf Coast, northeastward into the Tennessee Valley and central Appalachians by Monday night. Amplification of the overall trough and southwesterly cyclonic flow aloft will support the development of a weak surface low ahead of the cold front moving into the Southeast. Southerly flow ahead of this low will result in modest modification inland of a remnant Gulf air mass south of a large Arctic intrusion/cold air damming. Weak buoyancy and strong forcing will likely support a band of thunderstorms with the potential for some strong/severe storms through parts of the eastern Gulf Coast Sunday afternoon. ...Eastern Gulf Coast States... Gradual destabilization is expected early Sunday first over southern LA and MS as the surface low and warm front lift northward. Strong isentropic ascent over the shallow Arctic air mass will likely support a band of initially elevated convection from portions of East TX into southern LA and MS gradually spreading eastward. With time, these storms will encounter the northward advancing modified warm sector as the cold front impinges on the western edge of the moisture return through the day. Weak destabilization peaking around 500-750 J/kg of MLCAPE will overlap with strong deep-layer shear of 50-60 kt. This will allow for some intensification/organization of the ongoing storms where the near surface air mass can destabilize. Likely linear in nature owing to the strong frontal forcing, a few stronger segments appear plausible, especially across southeastern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle into southwestern Georgia late Sunday afternoon and evening. Damaging gusts would be primary risk given 50-70 kt flow in the lowest 1-3 km AGL. A brief QLCS tornado is also possible, but less certain as the low-level wind field gradually veers through the day as the main ascent lifts away to the north. ..Lyons.. 01/24/2026 Read more

SPC Jan 24, 2026 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

Sat, 2026-01-24 02:16
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0113 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN GULF COAST... CORRECTED FOR GRAPHIC ERROR ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the eastern Gulf Coast states Sunday into Sunday night. Damaging gusts are expected to be the primary risk. ...Synopsis... A broad positively tilted larger-scale mid-level trough over the central US is forecast to intensify Sunday as it moves eastward and absorbs several smaller perturbations ejecting from the Rockies and western CONUS. The most prominent of these smaller-scale features will move from the Sabine Valley and central Gulf Coast, northeastward into the Tennessee Valley and central Appalachians by Monday night. Amplification of the overall trough and southwesterly cyclonic flow aloft will support the development of a weak surface low ahead of the cold front moving into the Southeast. Southerly flow ahead of this low will result in modest modification inland of a remnant Gulf air mass south of a large Arctic intrusion/cold air damming. Weak buoyancy and strong forcing will likely support a band of thunderstorms with the potential for some strong/severe storms through parts of the eastern Gulf Coast Sunday afternoon. ...Eastern Gulf Coast States... Gradual destabilization is expected early Sunday first over southern LA and MS as the surface low and warm front lift northward. Strong isentropic ascent over the shallow Arctic air mass will likely support a band of initially elevated convection from portions of East TX into southern LA and MS gradually spreading eastward. With time, these storms will encounter the northward advancing modified warm sector as the cold front impinges on the western edge of the moisture return through the day. Weak destabilization peaking around 500-750 J/kg of MLCAPE will overlap with strong deep-layer shear of 50-60 kt. This will allow for some intensification/organization of the ongoing storms where the near surface air mass can destabilize. Likely linear in nature owing to the strong frontal forcing, a few stronger segments appear plausible, especially across southeastern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle into southwestern Georgia late Sunday afternoon and evening. Damaging gusts would be primary risk given 50-70 kt flow in the lowest 1-3 km AGL. A brief QLCS tornado is also possible, but less certain as the low-level wind field gradually veers through the day as the main ascent lifts away to the north. ..Lyons.. 01/24/2026 Read more

SPC Jan 24, 2026 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

Sat, 2026-01-24 02:16
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0113 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN GULF COAST... CORRECTED FOR GRAPHIC ERROR ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the eastern Gulf Coast states Sunday into Sunday night. Damaging gusts are expected to be the primary risk. ...Synopsis... A broad positively tilted larger-scale mid-level trough over the central US is forecast to intensify Sunday as it moves eastward and absorbs several smaller perturbations ejecting from the Rockies and western CONUS. The most prominent of these smaller-scale features will move from the Sabine Valley and central Gulf Coast, northeastward into the Tennessee Valley and central Appalachians by Monday night. Amplification of the overall trough and southwesterly cyclonic flow aloft will support the development of a weak surface low ahead of the cold front moving into the Southeast. Southerly flow ahead of this low will result in modest modification inland of a remnant Gulf air mass south of a large Arctic intrusion/cold air damming. Weak buoyancy and strong forcing will likely support a band of thunderstorms with the potential for some strong/severe storms through parts of the eastern Gulf Coast Sunday afternoon. ...Eastern Gulf Coast States... Gradual destabilization is expected early Sunday first over southern LA and MS as the surface low and warm front lift northward. Strong isentropic ascent over the shallow Arctic air mass will likely support a band of initially elevated convection from portions of East TX into southern LA and MS gradually spreading eastward. With time, these storms will encounter the northward advancing modified warm sector as the cold front impinges on the western edge of the moisture return through the day. Weak destabilization peaking around 500-750 J/kg of MLCAPE will overlap with strong deep-layer shear of 50-60 kt. This will allow for some intensification/organization of the ongoing storms where the near surface air mass can destabilize. Likely linear in nature owing to the strong frontal forcing, a few stronger segments appear plausible, especially across southeastern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle into southwestern Georgia late Sunday afternoon and evening. Damaging gusts would be primary risk given 50-70 kt flow in the lowest 1-3 km AGL. A brief QLCS tornado is also possible, but less certain as the low-level wind field gradually veers through the day as the main ascent lifts away to the north. ..Lyons.. 01/24/2026 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Sat, 2026-01-24 00:46
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The pattern will continue to favor a broad trough across the Central US with an arctic air mass across much of the central/eastern CONUS. Widespread precipitation will continue from the central US into the southeast and eastern US. The extremely cold temperatures, snow pack, and recent wetting precipitation will keep fire concerns low for D2/Sunday. ..Thornton.. 01/24/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Sat, 2026-01-24 00:46
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The pattern will continue to favor a broad trough across the Central US with an arctic air mass across much of the central/eastern CONUS. Widespread precipitation will continue from the central US into the southeast and eastern US. The extremely cold temperatures, snow pack, and recent wetting precipitation will keep fire concerns low for D2/Sunday. ..Thornton.. 01/24/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Sat, 2026-01-24 00:46
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The pattern will continue to favor a broad trough across the Central US with an arctic air mass across much of the central/eastern CONUS. Widespread precipitation will continue from the central US into the southeast and eastern US. The extremely cold temperatures, snow pack, and recent wetting precipitation will keep fire concerns low for D2/Sunday. ..Thornton.. 01/24/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Sat, 2026-01-24 00:45
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire concerns will remain low today across the CONUS. A broad mid-level trough across the central US will continue to bring several rounds of precipitation from the Plains into portions of the Eastern US today. In addition, a cold arctic air mass will be in place across much of the CONUS. These widespread cold and wet conditions will reduce fire weather concerns and improve status of fuels. ..Thornton.. 01/24/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Sat, 2026-01-24 00:45
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire concerns will remain low today across the CONUS. A broad mid-level trough across the central US will continue to bring several rounds of precipitation from the Plains into portions of the Eastern US today. In addition, a cold arctic air mass will be in place across much of the CONUS. These widespread cold and wet conditions will reduce fire weather concerns and improve status of fuels. ..Thornton.. 01/24/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Sat, 2026-01-24 00:45
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire concerns will remain low today across the CONUS. A broad mid-level trough across the central US will continue to bring several rounds of precipitation from the Plains into portions of the Eastern US today. In addition, a cold arctic air mass will be in place across much of the CONUS. These widespread cold and wet conditions will reduce fire weather concerns and improve status of fuels. ..Thornton.. 01/24/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Sat, 2026-01-24 00:45
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire concerns will remain low today across the CONUS. A broad mid-level trough across the central US will continue to bring several rounds of precipitation from the Plains into portions of the Eastern US today. In addition, a cold arctic air mass will be in place across much of the CONUS. These widespread cold and wet conditions will reduce fire weather concerns and improve status of fuels. ..Thornton.. 01/24/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC MD 37

Sat, 2026-01-24 00:45
MD 0037 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO FAR WEST-CENTRAL ARKANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0037 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0922 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026 Areas affected...central and eastern Oklahoma into far west-central Arkansas Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 240322Z - 240715Z SUMMARY...Moderate to heavy snowfall to increase in coverage through the evening. Rates 1"/hr will be possible. DISCUSSION...Snowfall has increased in coverage across portions of central Oklahoma over the last hour, with some reports of moderate snow south of the Oklahoma City metro. Correlation coefficient in recent radar imagery shows a transition zone of primarily snow and sleet south of I-40 from roughly northern Pontotoc County north and east to northern Le Flore County near the Arkansas state line. Initially, drier air was in place with larger dew point spreads but moistening has been observed with rising dew points and implied saturating profile which will has lead to an increase in snowfall rates over the last hour. Moderate to locally heavy snowfall can be expected to expand in coverage over the next few hours across central/northeastern Oklahoma with occasional rates around 1"/hr. Through the evening into early Saturday morning, increasing 850-700 mb frontogenesis will increase across a zone from south-central Oklahoma into eastern Oklahoma/western Arkansas across a strong warm advection zone. As moistening continues to occur further east amid this favorable ascent zone, snowfall rates should increase, with likely rates around 1"/hr along the I-40 corridor around 06-09z. ..Thornton.. 01/24/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN... LAT...LON 35239441 35059512 35019659 34949750 34989767 35049790 35309801 35759737 35979712 36179665 36209590 36239511 36199467 36119440 35549421 35239441 Read more