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SPC Jan 20, 2026 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... An upper shortwave trough/low near the CA coast will develop east toward southern CA/northern Baja by Friday morning. As this occurs, upper flow over the eastern half of the CONUS will become flatter/quasi-zonal. At the surface, arctic high pressure will build over the Canadian Prairies and begin to slide southward into the Plains, ushering in a very cold airmass. Forecast guidance varies in the location of an arctic cold front by the end of the period, but the expectation is that by early Friday morning, the front will be located somewhere near central OK to the Red River, and stretch eastward toward the Mid-South. Modified Gulf moisture will be located well south of the front from central/southern TX toward the central Gulf Coast. Isolated convection may develop near or to the cool side of the cold front late Thursday night/early Friday morning across north TX/southern OK within warm advection around 850 mb. However, instability is expected to be very minor and lighting is not expected. Further south in better low-level moisture, forcing for ascent will be limited and warm midlevel temperatures will preclude destabilization. ..Leitman.. 01/20/2026 Read more
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... An upper shortwave trough/low near the CA coast will develop east toward southern CA/northern Baja by Friday morning. As this occurs, upper flow over the eastern half of the CONUS will become flatter/quasi-zonal. At the surface, arctic high pressure will build over the Canadian Prairies and begin to slide southward into the Plains, ushering in a very cold airmass. Forecast guidance varies in the location of an arctic cold front by the end of the period, but the expectation is that by early Friday morning, the front will be located somewhere near central OK to the Red River, and stretch eastward toward the Mid-South. Modified Gulf moisture will be located well south of the front from central/southern TX toward the central Gulf Coast. Isolated convection may develop near or to the cool side of the cold front late Thursday night/early Friday morning across north TX/southern OK within warm advection around 850 mb. However, instability is expected to be very minor and lighting is not expected. Further south in better low-level moisture, forcing for ascent will be limited and warm midlevel temperatures will preclude destabilization. ..Leitman.. 01/20/2026 Read more
SPC Jan 20, 2026 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... An upper shortwave trough/low near the CA coast will develop east toward southern CA/northern Baja by Friday morning. As this occurs, upper flow over the eastern half of the CONUS will become flatter/quasi-zonal. At the surface, arctic high pressure will build over the Canadian Prairies and begin to slide southward into the Plains, ushering in a very cold airmass. Forecast guidance varies in the location of an arctic cold front by the end of the period, but the expectation is that by early Friday morning, the front will be located somewhere near central OK to the Red River, and stretch eastward toward the Mid-South. Modified Gulf moisture will be located well south of the front from central/southern TX toward the central Gulf Coast. Isolated convection may develop near or to the cool side of the cold front late Thursday night/early Friday morning across north TX/southern OK within warm advection around 850 mb. However, instability is expected to be very minor and lighting is not expected. Further south in better low-level moisture, forcing for ascent will be limited and warm midlevel temperatures will preclude destabilization. ..Leitman.. 01/20/2026 Read more
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... An upper shortwave trough/low near the CA coast will develop east toward southern CA/northern Baja by Friday morning. As this occurs, upper flow over the eastern half of the CONUS will become flatter/quasi-zonal. At the surface, arctic high pressure will build over the Canadian Prairies and begin to slide southward into the Plains, ushering in a very cold airmass. Forecast guidance varies in the location of an arctic cold front by the end of the period, but the expectation is that by early Friday morning, the front will be located somewhere near central OK to the Red River, and stretch eastward toward the Mid-South. Modified Gulf moisture will be located well south of the front from central/southern TX toward the central Gulf Coast. Isolated convection may develop near or to the cool side of the cold front late Thursday night/early Friday morning across north TX/southern OK within warm advection around 850 mb. However, instability is expected to be very minor and lighting is not expected. Further south in better low-level moisture, forcing for ascent will be limited and warm midlevel temperatures will preclude destabilization. ..Leitman.. 01/20/2026 Read more
SPC Jan 20, 2026 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... An upper shortwave trough/low near the CA coast will develop east toward southern CA/northern Baja by Friday morning. As this occurs, upper flow over the eastern half of the CONUS will become flatter/quasi-zonal. At the surface, arctic high pressure will build over the Canadian Prairies and begin to slide southward into the Plains, ushering in a very cold airmass. Forecast guidance varies in the location of an arctic cold front by the end of the period, but the expectation is that by early Friday morning, the front will be located somewhere near central OK to the Red River, and stretch eastward toward the Mid-South. Modified Gulf moisture will be located well south of the front from central/southern TX toward the central Gulf Coast. Isolated convection may develop near or to the cool side of the cold front late Thursday night/early Friday morning across north TX/southern OK within warm advection around 850 mb. However, instability is expected to be very minor and lighting is not expected. Further south in better low-level moisture, forcing for ascent will be limited and warm midlevel temperatures will preclude destabilization. ..Leitman.. 01/20/2026 Read more
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... An upper shortwave trough/low near the CA coast will develop east toward southern CA/northern Baja by Friday morning. As this occurs, upper flow over the eastern half of the CONUS will become flatter/quasi-zonal. At the surface, arctic high pressure will build over the Canadian Prairies and begin to slide southward into the Plains, ushering in a very cold airmass. Forecast guidance varies in the location of an arctic cold front by the end of the period, but the expectation is that by early Friday morning, the front will be located somewhere near central OK to the Red River, and stretch eastward toward the Mid-South. Modified Gulf moisture will be located well south of the front from central/southern TX toward the central Gulf Coast. Isolated convection may develop near or to the cool side of the cold front late Thursday night/early Friday morning across north TX/southern OK within warm advection around 850 mb. However, instability is expected to be very minor and lighting is not expected. Further south in better low-level moisture, forcing for ascent will be limited and warm midlevel temperatures will preclude destabilization. ..Leitman.. 01/20/2026 Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire-weather concerns are minimal on Wednesday, as a cold air mass begins to infiltrate the central U.S. ..Weinman.. 01/20/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire-weather concerns are minimal on Wednesday, as a cold air mass begins to infiltrate the central U.S. ..Weinman.. 01/20/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire-weather concerns are minimal on Wednesday, as a cold air mass begins to infiltrate the central U.S. ..Weinman.. 01/20/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire-weather concerns are minimal on Wednesday, as a cold air mass begins to infiltrate the central U.S. ..Weinman.. 01/20/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire-weather concerns are minimal on Wednesday, as a cold air mass begins to infiltrate the central U.S. ..Weinman.. 01/20/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire-weather concerns are minimal on Wednesday, as a cold air mass begins to infiltrate the central U.S. ..Weinman.. 01/20/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude shortwave trough and accompanying speed maximum will cross the central Rockies during the afternoon, while an attendant surface low tracks south-southeastward along the northern/central High Plains. Related downslope flow will yield 10-15 percent RH across much of the central High Plains, where around 20 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) are expected. These dry/windy conditions will favor elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions over northeastern CO, southwestern NE, and northwest KS. A separate corridor of elevated fire-weather conditions is expected in the lee of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains in southern CO, with locally critical conditions possible within the gap flow areas. Between these two corridors, recent snowfall should limit fire-weather concerns. Elsewhere, modestly breezy northeasterly surface winds are expected amid a dry antecedent air mass across parts of the western and central FL Peninsula, where locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. ..Weinman.. 01/20/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude shortwave trough and accompanying speed maximum will cross the central Rockies during the afternoon, while an attendant surface low tracks south-southeastward along the northern/central High Plains. Related downslope flow will yield 10-15 percent RH across much of the central High Plains, where around 20 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) are expected. These dry/windy conditions will favor elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions over northeastern CO, southwestern NE, and northwest KS. A separate corridor of elevated fire-weather conditions is expected in the lee of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains in southern CO, with locally critical conditions possible within the gap flow areas. Between these two corridors, recent snowfall should limit fire-weather concerns. Elsewhere, modestly breezy northeasterly surface winds are expected amid a dry antecedent air mass across parts of the western and central FL Peninsula, where locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. ..Weinman.. 01/20/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude shortwave trough and accompanying speed maximum will cross the central Rockies during the afternoon, while an attendant surface low tracks south-southeastward along the northern/central High Plains. Related downslope flow will yield 10-15 percent RH across much of the central High Plains, where around 20 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) are expected. These dry/windy conditions will favor elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions over northeastern CO, southwestern NE, and northwest KS. A separate corridor of elevated fire-weather conditions is expected in the lee of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains in southern CO, with locally critical conditions possible within the gap flow areas. Between these two corridors, recent snowfall should limit fire-weather concerns. Elsewhere, modestly breezy northeasterly surface winds are expected amid a dry antecedent air mass across parts of the western and central FL Peninsula, where locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. ..Weinman.. 01/20/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude shortwave trough and accompanying speed maximum will cross the central Rockies during the afternoon, while an attendant surface low tracks south-southeastward along the northern/central High Plains. Related downslope flow will yield 10-15 percent RH across much of the central High Plains, where around 20 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) are expected. These dry/windy conditions will favor elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions over northeastern CO, southwestern NE, and northwest KS. A separate corridor of elevated fire-weather conditions is expected in the lee of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains in southern CO, with locally critical conditions possible within the gap flow areas. Between these two corridors, recent snowfall should limit fire-weather concerns. Elsewhere, modestly breezy northeasterly surface winds are expected amid a dry antecedent air mass across parts of the western and central FL Peninsula, where locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. ..Weinman.. 01/20/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude shortwave trough and accompanying speed maximum will cross the central Rockies during the afternoon, while an attendant surface low tracks south-southeastward along the northern/central High Plains. Related downslope flow will yield 10-15 percent RH across much of the central High Plains, where around 20 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) are expected. These dry/windy conditions will favor elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions over northeastern CO, southwestern NE, and northwest KS. A separate corridor of elevated fire-weather conditions is expected in the lee of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains in southern CO, with locally critical conditions possible within the gap flow areas. Between these two corridors, recent snowfall should limit fire-weather concerns. Elsewhere, modestly breezy northeasterly surface winds are expected amid a dry antecedent air mass across parts of the western and central FL Peninsula, where locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. ..Weinman.. 01/20/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude shortwave trough and accompanying speed maximum will cross the central Rockies during the afternoon, while an attendant surface low tracks south-southeastward along the northern/central High Plains. Related downslope flow will yield 10-15 percent RH across much of the central High Plains, where around 20 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) are expected. These dry/windy conditions will favor elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions over northeastern CO, southwestern NE, and northwest KS. A separate corridor of elevated fire-weather conditions is expected in the lee of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains in southern CO, with locally critical conditions possible within the gap flow areas. Between these two corridors, recent snowfall should limit fire-weather concerns. Elsewhere, modestly breezy northeasterly surface winds are expected amid a dry antecedent air mass across parts of the western and central FL Peninsula, where locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. ..Weinman.. 01/20/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
SPC Jan 20, 2026 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1210 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorm are possible Wednesday and Wednesday night across portions of southeast Texas and Louisiana. ...Synopsis... Broad upper troughing will envelop much of the CONUS on Wednesday. An upper shortwave trough embedded within the large-scale trough will pivot east across the south-central to southeast states on Wednesday into early Thursday. As this occurs, some minor modified Gulf moisture will impinge on southeast TX into LA/MS ahead of a southward sagging cold front. This will support minor destabilization (MUCAPE around 100-300 J/kg) from southeast TX into LA. Cool temperatures aloft and modest large-scale ascent may be sufficient for isolated weak thunderstorm activity late Wednesday afternoon into the nighttime hours. Severe storms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 01/20/2026 Read more
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1210 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorm are possible Wednesday and Wednesday night across portions of southeast Texas and Louisiana. ...Synopsis... Broad upper troughing will envelop much of the CONUS on Wednesday. An upper shortwave trough embedded within the large-scale trough will pivot east across the south-central to southeast states on Wednesday into early Thursday. As this occurs, some minor modified Gulf moisture will impinge on southeast TX into LA/MS ahead of a southward sagging cold front. This will support minor destabilization (MUCAPE around 100-300 J/kg) from southeast TX into LA. Cool temperatures aloft and modest large-scale ascent may be sufficient for isolated weak thunderstorm activity late Wednesday afternoon into the nighttime hours. Severe storms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 01/20/2026 Read more
SPC Jan 20, 2026 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1210 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorm are possible Wednesday and Wednesday night across portions of southeast Texas and Louisiana. ...Synopsis... Broad upper troughing will envelop much of the CONUS on Wednesday. An upper shortwave trough embedded within the large-scale trough will pivot east across the south-central to southeast states on Wednesday into early Thursday. As this occurs, some minor modified Gulf moisture will impinge on southeast TX into LA/MS ahead of a southward sagging cold front. This will support minor destabilization (MUCAPE around 100-300 J/kg) from southeast TX into LA. Cool temperatures aloft and modest large-scale ascent may be sufficient for isolated weak thunderstorm activity late Wednesday afternoon into the nighttime hours. Severe storms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 01/20/2026 Read more
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1210 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorm are possible Wednesday and Wednesday night across portions of southeast Texas and Louisiana. ...Synopsis... Broad upper troughing will envelop much of the CONUS on Wednesday. An upper shortwave trough embedded within the large-scale trough will pivot east across the south-central to southeast states on Wednesday into early Thursday. As this occurs, some minor modified Gulf moisture will impinge on southeast TX into LA/MS ahead of a southward sagging cold front. This will support minor destabilization (MUCAPE around 100-300 J/kg) from southeast TX into LA. Cool temperatures aloft and modest large-scale ascent may be sufficient for isolated weak thunderstorm activity late Wednesday afternoon into the nighttime hours. Severe storms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 01/20/2026 Read more
SPC Jan 20, 2026 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1210 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorm are possible Wednesday and Wednesday night across portions of southeast Texas and Louisiana. ...Synopsis... Broad upper troughing will envelop much of the CONUS on Wednesday. An upper shortwave trough embedded within the large-scale trough will pivot east across the south-central to southeast states on Wednesday into early Thursday. As this occurs, some minor modified Gulf moisture will impinge on southeast TX into LA/MS ahead of a southward sagging cold front. This will support minor destabilization (MUCAPE around 100-300 J/kg) from southeast TX into LA. Cool temperatures aloft and modest large-scale ascent may be sufficient for isolated weak thunderstorm activity late Wednesday afternoon into the nighttime hours. Severe storms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 01/20/2026 Read more
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1210 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorm are possible Wednesday and Wednesday night across portions of southeast Texas and Louisiana. ...Synopsis... Broad upper troughing will envelop much of the CONUS on Wednesday. An upper shortwave trough embedded within the large-scale trough will pivot east across the south-central to southeast states on Wednesday into early Thursday. As this occurs, some minor modified Gulf moisture will impinge on southeast TX into LA/MS ahead of a southward sagging cold front. This will support minor destabilization (MUCAPE around 100-300 J/kg) from southeast TX into LA. Cool temperatures aloft and modest large-scale ascent may be sufficient for isolated weak thunderstorm activity late Wednesday afternoon into the nighttime hours. Severe storms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 01/20/2026 Read more
SPC MD 29
MD 0029 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO
Mesoscale Discussion 0029 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0824 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2026 Areas affected...Downwind of Lake Ontario Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 200224Z - 200830Z SUMMARY...A lake effect snow band will gradually intensify tonight, with rates eventually approaching 2-4 inches per hour downwind of Lake Ontario. DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery from KTYX shows gradually organizing lake effect snow bands extending downwind of Lake Ontario. This is in response to subtle veering of uni-directional boundary-layer flow (sampled by KTYX VWP) and a favorable fetch developing across the long axis of Lake Ontario. This trend will continue over the next few hours, as a low-level cyclone and southward-extending surface trough continue advancing east-northeastward across Quebec. Additionally, cooling temperatures aloft (around -31C at 700 mb) will result in a deepening convective boundary layer -- further aiding in the intensification of lake effect snow bands extending across the Tug Hill Plateau and vicinity. Heavy snowfall rates of around 2-4 inches per hour are expected to begin in the 04-06Z time frame, and should continue through the early morning hours. ..Weinman.. 01/20/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BUF... LAT...LON 43947626 43977539 43857511 43537507 43387524 43387618 43467640 43667642 43947626 Read more
Mesoscale Discussion 0029 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0824 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2026 Areas affected...Downwind of Lake Ontario Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 200224Z - 200830Z SUMMARY...A lake effect snow band will gradually intensify tonight, with rates eventually approaching 2-4 inches per hour downwind of Lake Ontario. DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery from KTYX shows gradually organizing lake effect snow bands extending downwind of Lake Ontario. This is in response to subtle veering of uni-directional boundary-layer flow (sampled by KTYX VWP) and a favorable fetch developing across the long axis of Lake Ontario. This trend will continue over the next few hours, as a low-level cyclone and southward-extending surface trough continue advancing east-northeastward across Quebec. Additionally, cooling temperatures aloft (around -31C at 700 mb) will result in a deepening convective boundary layer -- further aiding in the intensification of lake effect snow bands extending across the Tug Hill Plateau and vicinity. Heavy snowfall rates of around 2-4 inches per hour are expected to begin in the 04-06Z time frame, and should continue through the early morning hours. ..Weinman.. 01/20/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BUF... LAT...LON 43947626 43977539 43857511 43537507 43387524 43387618 43467640 43667642 43947626 Read more
SPC Jan 20, 2026 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2026 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. today or tonight. ...DISCUSSION... A large-scale cyclonic flow pattern will remain in place across the U.S. today. At the surface, a large area of high pressure will be located over the central and eastern U.S. This dry and cold airmass will make conditions unfavorable for thunderstorm development over the continental U.S. today and tonight. ..Broyles/Weinman.. 01/20/2026 Read more
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2026 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. today or tonight. ...DISCUSSION... A large-scale cyclonic flow pattern will remain in place across the U.S. today. At the surface, a large area of high pressure will be located over the central and eastern U.S. This dry and cold airmass will make conditions unfavorable for thunderstorm development over the continental U.S. today and tonight. ..Broyles/Weinman.. 01/20/2026 Read more
SPC Jan 20, 2026 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2026 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. today or tonight. ...DISCUSSION... A large-scale cyclonic flow pattern will remain in place across the U.S. today. At the surface, a large area of high pressure will be located over the central and eastern U.S. This dry and cold airmass will make conditions unfavorable for thunderstorm development over the continental U.S. today and tonight. ..Broyles/Weinman.. 01/20/2026 Read more
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2026 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. today or tonight. ...DISCUSSION... A large-scale cyclonic flow pattern will remain in place across the U.S. today. At the surface, a large area of high pressure will be located over the central and eastern U.S. This dry and cold airmass will make conditions unfavorable for thunderstorm development over the continental U.S. today and tonight. ..Broyles/Weinman.. 01/20/2026 Read more
SPC Jan 20, 2026 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2026 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. today or tonight. ...DISCUSSION... A large-scale cyclonic flow pattern will remain in place across the U.S. today. At the surface, a large area of high pressure will be located over the central and eastern U.S. This dry and cold airmass will make conditions unfavorable for thunderstorm development over the continental U.S. today and tonight. ..Broyles/Weinman.. 01/20/2026 Read more
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2026 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. today or tonight. ...DISCUSSION... A large-scale cyclonic flow pattern will remain in place across the U.S. today. At the surface, a large area of high pressure will be located over the central and eastern U.S. This dry and cold airmass will make conditions unfavorable for thunderstorm development over the continental U.S. today and tonight. ..Broyles/Weinman.. 01/20/2026 Read more
SPC Jan 20, 2026 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0653 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2026 Valid 200100Z - 201200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. today or tonight. ...DISCUSSION... A large-scale cyclonic flow pattern will remain in place across the U.S. this evening and tonight. At the surface, a cold and dry airmass within a large area of high pressure will be in place over much of the nation. As a result, thunderstorms will not develop across the continental U.S. through daybreak on Tuesday. ..Broyles.. 01/20/2026 Read more
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0653 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2026 Valid 200100Z - 201200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. today or tonight. ...DISCUSSION... A large-scale cyclonic flow pattern will remain in place across the U.S. this evening and tonight. At the surface, a cold and dry airmass within a large area of high pressure will be in place over much of the nation. As a result, thunderstorms will not develop across the continental U.S. through daybreak on Tuesday. ..Broyles.. 01/20/2026 Read more
SPC Jan 20, 2026 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0653 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2026 Valid 200100Z - 201200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. today or tonight. ...DISCUSSION... A large-scale cyclonic flow pattern will remain in place across the U.S. this evening and tonight. At the surface, a cold and dry airmass within a large area of high pressure will be in place over much of the nation. As a result, thunderstorms will not develop across the continental U.S. through daybreak on Tuesday. ..Broyles.. 01/20/2026 Read more
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0653 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2026 Valid 200100Z - 201200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. today or tonight. ...DISCUSSION... A large-scale cyclonic flow pattern will remain in place across the U.S. this evening and tonight. At the surface, a cold and dry airmass within a large area of high pressure will be in place over much of the nation. As a result, thunderstorms will not develop across the continental U.S. through daybreak on Tuesday. ..Broyles.. 01/20/2026 Read more
SPC Jan 20, 2026 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0653 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2026 Valid 200100Z - 201200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. today or tonight. ...DISCUSSION... A large-scale cyclonic flow pattern will remain in place across the U.S. this evening and tonight. At the surface, a cold and dry airmass within a large area of high pressure will be in place over much of the nation. As a result, thunderstorms will not develop across the continental U.S. through daybreak on Tuesday. ..Broyles.. 01/20/2026 Read more
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0653 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2026 Valid 200100Z - 201200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. today or tonight. ...DISCUSSION... A large-scale cyclonic flow pattern will remain in place across the U.S. this evening and tonight. At the surface, a cold and dry airmass within a large area of high pressure will be in place over much of the nation. As a result, thunderstorms will not develop across the continental U.S. through daybreak on Tuesday. ..Broyles.. 01/20/2026 Read more
SPC - No watches are valid as of Mon Jan 19 22:10:02 UTC 2026
No watches are valid as of Mon Jan 19 22:10:02 UTC 2026.
