No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Jan 21 22:07:02 UTC 2026.

John Cadwallader Kanode, N4MM (SK), of Boyce, Virginia, passed away on January 13, 2026. He was 88 years old. First licensed in 1952, Kanode served on the Board of Directors of ARRL The National Association for Amateur Radio for 21 years, first as Roanoke Division Vice Director, then Director, and Vice President. He was a member of the ARRL Maxim Society (President Class), a Life Member, and wa...

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0316 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026 Valid 231200Z - 291200Z A pronounced arctic air mass will filter into much of CONUS late week while a large scale upper-level trough deepens across the western U.S. on Day 3/Friday, translating eastward over the weekend and reaching the East Coast early next week. The trough will facilitate overrunning of East Pacific and Gulf moisture over the shallower cold air mass to bring a broad, mixed precipitation event across the Southwest and southern Plains beginning on Days 3-4/Friday-Saturday. Development of a surface trough/low across the Deep South and subsequent eastward advancement of the upper-level trough should support additional widespread precipitation across the Southeast, Mid Atlantic and Northeast for Day 5-6/Sunday-Monday. This will considerably reduce fire weather concerns across the majority of the eastern U.S. through the middle of next week. Longer term ensemble guidance does suggest a return to seasonably warmer and drier conditions across the central High Plains as early as Day 6/Monday, along with the potential for breezy downslope winds under a broad northwest flow aloft regime. However, uncertainty in spatial distribution of precedent precipitation across the region through this weekend reduces predictability of the fire weather threat for this region in the longer term. ..Williams.. 01/21/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0316 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026 Valid 231200Z - 291200Z A pronounced arctic air mass will filter into much of CONUS late week while a large scale upper-level trough deepens across the western U.S. on Day 3/Friday, translating eastward over the weekend and reaching the East Coast early next week. The trough will facilitate overrunning of East Pacific and Gulf moisture over the shallower cold air mass to bring a broad, mixed precipitation event across the Southwest and southern Plains beginning on Days 3-4/Friday-Saturday. Development of a surface trough/low across the Deep South and subsequent eastward advancement of the upper-level trough should support additional widespread precipitation across the Southeast, Mid Atlantic and Northeast for Day 5-6/Sunday-Monday. This will considerably reduce fire weather concerns across the majority of the eastern U.S. through the middle of next week. Longer term ensemble guidance does suggest a return to seasonably warmer and drier conditions across the central High Plains as early as Day 6/Monday, along with the potential for breezy downslope winds under a broad northwest flow aloft regime. However, uncertainty in spatial distribution of precedent precipitation across the region through this weekend reduces predictability of the fire weather threat for this region in the longer term. ..Williams.. 01/21/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0316 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026 Valid 231200Z - 291200Z A pronounced arctic air mass will filter into much of CONUS late week while a large scale upper-level trough deepens across the western U.S. on Day 3/Friday, translating eastward over the weekend and reaching the East Coast early next week. The trough will facilitate overrunning of East Pacific and Gulf moisture over the shallower cold air mass to bring a broad, mixed precipitation event across the Southwest and southern Plains beginning on Days 3-4/Friday-Saturday. Development of a surface trough/low across the Deep South and subsequent eastward advancement of the upper-level trough should support additional widespread precipitation across the Southeast, Mid Atlantic and Northeast for Day 5-6/Sunday-Monday. This will considerably reduce fire weather concerns across the majority of the eastern U.S. through the middle of next week. Longer term ensemble guidance does suggest a return to seasonably warmer and drier conditions across the central High Plains as early as Day 6/Monday, along with the potential for breezy downslope winds under a broad northwest flow aloft regime. However, uncertainty in spatial distribution of precedent precipitation across the region through this weekend reduces predictability of the fire weather threat for this region in the longer term. ..Williams.. 01/21/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026 Valid 212000Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms should occur across parts of east/southeast Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley today and tonight. ...20Z Update... No changes are needed to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 01/21/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1017 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026/ ...ArkLaTex Region... The persistent upper trough over the eastern states will maintain fast cyclonic flow aloft over the Gulf coast states today. A surface cold front will sag southward across parts of TX/AR/LA and eventually into MS. The air mass ahead of the front is moderately moist, with MUCAPE of less than 500 J/kg. This will result in occasional clusters of thunderstorms, but no severe storms are anticipated. ...South FL... A subtle southern-stream shortwave trough will move across the Gulf and approach FL late tonight. This will result in an increase in the risk of isolated thunderstorms over southeast FL - mainly after midnight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026 Valid 212000Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms should occur across parts of east/southeast Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley today and tonight. ...20Z Update... No changes are needed to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 01/21/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1017 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026/ ...ArkLaTex Region... The persistent upper trough over the eastern states will maintain fast cyclonic flow aloft over the Gulf coast states today. A surface cold front will sag southward across parts of TX/AR/LA and eventually into MS. The air mass ahead of the front is moderately moist, with MUCAPE of less than 500 J/kg. This will result in occasional clusters of thunderstorms, but no severe storms are anticipated. ...South FL... A subtle southern-stream shortwave trough will move across the Gulf and approach FL late tonight. This will result in an increase in the risk of isolated thunderstorms over southeast FL - mainly after midnight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026 Valid 212000Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms should occur across parts of east/southeast Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley today and tonight. ...20Z Update... No changes are needed to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 01/21/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1017 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026/ ...ArkLaTex Region... The persistent upper trough over the eastern states will maintain fast cyclonic flow aloft over the Gulf coast states today. A surface cold front will sag southward across parts of TX/AR/LA and eventually into MS. The air mass ahead of the front is moderately moist, with MUCAPE of less than 500 J/kg. This will result in occasional clusters of thunderstorms, but no severe storms are anticipated. ...South FL... A subtle southern-stream shortwave trough will move across the Gulf and approach FL late tonight. This will result in an increase in the risk of isolated thunderstorms over southeast FL - mainly after midnight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026 Valid 212000Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms should occur across parts of east/southeast Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley today and tonight. ...20Z Update... No changes are needed to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 01/21/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1017 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026/ ...ArkLaTex Region... The persistent upper trough over the eastern states will maintain fast cyclonic flow aloft over the Gulf coast states today. A surface cold front will sag southward across parts of TX/AR/LA and eventually into MS. The air mass ahead of the front is moderately moist, with MUCAPE of less than 500 J/kg. This will result in occasional clusters of thunderstorms, but no severe storms are anticipated. ...South FL... A subtle southern-stream shortwave trough will move across the Gulf and approach FL late tonight. This will result in an increase in the risk of isolated thunderstorms over southeast FL - mainly after midnight. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... An intensely cold air mass accompanied by expanding cloud cover and light precipitation will move into the northern/central plains and Upper Midwest Thursday limiting fire weather concerns. Locally breezy downslope winds and drying will continue to impact locations in immediate leeward locations and foothills of the Rockies across southern CO and NM, although cloud cover and marginally dry fuels will limit a larger fire weather threat. ..Williams.. 01/21/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0148 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026/ ...Synopsis... An arctic air mass will begin to infiltrate the northern and central Plains on Thursday, limiting the fire-weather risk across much of the CONUS. The only exception will be in the lee of the southern Rockies in NM, where westerly/downslope flow and lee troughing will favor locally dry/breezy conditions during the afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... An intensely cold air mass accompanied by expanding cloud cover and light precipitation will move into the northern/central plains and Upper Midwest Thursday limiting fire weather concerns. Locally breezy downslope winds and drying will continue to impact locations in immediate leeward locations and foothills of the Rockies across southern CO and NM, although cloud cover and marginally dry fuels will limit a larger fire weather threat. ..Williams.. 01/21/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0148 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026/ ...Synopsis... An arctic air mass will begin to infiltrate the northern and central Plains on Thursday, limiting the fire-weather risk across much of the CONUS. The only exception will be in the lee of the southern Rockies in NM, where westerly/downslope flow and lee troughing will favor locally dry/breezy conditions during the afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... An intensely cold air mass accompanied by expanding cloud cover and light precipitation will move into the northern/central plains and Upper Midwest Thursday limiting fire weather concerns. Locally breezy downslope winds and drying will continue to impact locations in immediate leeward locations and foothills of the Rockies across southern CO and NM, although cloud cover and marginally dry fuels will limit a larger fire weather threat. ..Williams.. 01/21/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0148 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026/ ...Synopsis... An arctic air mass will begin to infiltrate the northern and central Plains on Thursday, limiting the fire-weather risk across much of the CONUS. The only exception will be in the lee of the southern Rockies in NM, where westerly/downslope flow and lee troughing will favor locally dry/breezy conditions during the afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... An intensely cold air mass accompanied by expanding cloud cover and light precipitation will move into the northern/central plains and Upper Midwest Thursday limiting fire weather concerns. Locally breezy downslope winds and drying will continue to impact locations in immediate leeward locations and foothills of the Rockies across southern CO and NM, although cloud cover and marginally dry fuels will limit a larger fire weather threat. ..Williams.. 01/21/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0148 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026/ ...Synopsis... An arctic air mass will begin to infiltrate the northern and central Plains on Thursday, limiting the fire-weather risk across much of the CONUS. The only exception will be in the lee of the southern Rockies in NM, where westerly/downslope flow and lee troughing will favor locally dry/breezy conditions during the afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0127 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered weak thunderstorm activity is possible Friday through Friday night across parts of central Texas into the southern Great Plains Red River Valley. ...Discussion... Models indicate that a confluent mid-level regime will be maintained across and east of the Rockies, downstream of amplified split flow across the central/eastern Pacific into far western North America. Although the center of initially prominent, cold surface ridging may begin to weaken some while slowly shifting east of the Missouri Valley through the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, the leading edge of the Arctic air is forecast to surge southward across the southern Great Plains, through much of central and southwestern Texas by late Friday night. The front is also forecast to advance further offshore of the southern Mid Atlantic, but slower southward through the eastern Gulf Coast states and lower Mississippi Valley, beneath a broad building mid-level ridge across much of the south central and southeastern U.S., downstream of mid-level troughing digging across the international border into the northern U.S. Rockies/Great Plains and a short wave trough emerging from the southern mid-latitude eastern Pacific. There remains notable spread concerning the eastward acceleration of the latter perturbation, generally toward Baja, during this period. However, guidance continues to generally indicate increasing low-level moistening within strengthening southerly downstream flow, across and north of the lower Rio Grande Valley and Texas coastal areas. ...Southern Great Plains/Red River Valley... Although mid-level lapse rates are not likely to steepen appreciably, forecast soundings suggest that lower/mid-tropospheric thermal and moisture advection may lead to weak destabilization by late Friday into Friday night, mostly above the southward advancing cold air. It appears that this will become increasingly sufficient for widely scattered to scattered convective development capable of producing lightning, perhaps as far north as portions of southern Oklahoma by 12Z Saturday. ..Kerr.. 01/21/2026 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0127 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered weak thunderstorm activity is possible Friday through Friday night across parts of central Texas into the southern Great Plains Red River Valley. ...Discussion... Models indicate that a confluent mid-level regime will be maintained across and east of the Rockies, downstream of amplified split flow across the central/eastern Pacific into far western North America. Although the center of initially prominent, cold surface ridging may begin to weaken some while slowly shifting east of the Missouri Valley through the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, the leading edge of the Arctic air is forecast to surge southward across the southern Great Plains, through much of central and southwestern Texas by late Friday night. The front is also forecast to advance further offshore of the southern Mid Atlantic, but slower southward through the eastern Gulf Coast states and lower Mississippi Valley, beneath a broad building mid-level ridge across much of the south central and southeastern U.S., downstream of mid-level troughing digging across the international border into the northern U.S. Rockies/Great Plains and a short wave trough emerging from the southern mid-latitude eastern Pacific. There remains notable spread concerning the eastward acceleration of the latter perturbation, generally toward Baja, during this period. However, guidance continues to generally indicate increasing low-level moistening within strengthening southerly downstream flow, across and north of the lower Rio Grande Valley and Texas coastal areas. ...Southern Great Plains/Red River Valley... Although mid-level lapse rates are not likely to steepen appreciably, forecast soundings suggest that lower/mid-tropospheric thermal and moisture advection may lead to weak destabilization by late Friday into Friday night, mostly above the southward advancing cold air. It appears that this will become increasingly sufficient for widely scattered to scattered convective development capable of producing lightning, perhaps as far north as portions of southern Oklahoma by 12Z Saturday. ..Kerr.. 01/21/2026 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0127 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered weak thunderstorm activity is possible Friday through Friday night across parts of central Texas into the southern Great Plains Red River Valley. ...Discussion... Models indicate that a confluent mid-level regime will be maintained across and east of the Rockies, downstream of amplified split flow across the central/eastern Pacific into far western North America. Although the center of initially prominent, cold surface ridging may begin to weaken some while slowly shifting east of the Missouri Valley through the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, the leading edge of the Arctic air is forecast to surge southward across the southern Great Plains, through much of central and southwestern Texas by late Friday night. The front is also forecast to advance further offshore of the southern Mid Atlantic, but slower southward through the eastern Gulf Coast states and lower Mississippi Valley, beneath a broad building mid-level ridge across much of the south central and southeastern U.S., downstream of mid-level troughing digging across the international border into the northern U.S. Rockies/Great Plains and a short wave trough emerging from the southern mid-latitude eastern Pacific. There remains notable spread concerning the eastward acceleration of the latter perturbation, generally toward Baja, during this period. However, guidance continues to generally indicate increasing low-level moistening within strengthening southerly downstream flow, across and north of the lower Rio Grande Valley and Texas coastal areas. ...Southern Great Plains/Red River Valley... Although mid-level lapse rates are not likely to steepen appreciably, forecast soundings suggest that lower/mid-tropospheric thermal and moisture advection may lead to weak destabilization by late Friday into Friday night, mostly above the southward advancing cold air. It appears that this will become increasingly sufficient for widely scattered to scattered convective development capable of producing lightning, perhaps as far north as portions of southern Oklahoma by 12Z Saturday. ..Kerr.. 01/21/2026 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0127 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered weak thunderstorm activity is possible Friday through Friday night across parts of central Texas into the southern Great Plains Red River Valley. ...Discussion... Models indicate that a confluent mid-level regime will be maintained across and east of the Rockies, downstream of amplified split flow across the central/eastern Pacific into far western North America. Although the center of initially prominent, cold surface ridging may begin to weaken some while slowly shifting east of the Missouri Valley through the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, the leading edge of the Arctic air is forecast to surge southward across the southern Great Plains, through much of central and southwestern Texas by late Friday night. The front is also forecast to advance further offshore of the southern Mid Atlantic, but slower southward through the eastern Gulf Coast states and lower Mississippi Valley, beneath a broad building mid-level ridge across much of the south central and southeastern U.S., downstream of mid-level troughing digging across the international border into the northern U.S. Rockies/Great Plains and a short wave trough emerging from the southern mid-latitude eastern Pacific. There remains notable spread concerning the eastward acceleration of the latter perturbation, generally toward Baja, during this period. However, guidance continues to generally indicate increasing low-level moistening within strengthening southerly downstream flow, across and north of the lower Rio Grande Valley and Texas coastal areas. ...Southern Great Plains/Red River Valley... Although mid-level lapse rates are not likely to steepen appreciably, forecast soundings suggest that lower/mid-tropospheric thermal and moisture advection may lead to weak destabilization by late Friday into Friday night, mostly above the southward advancing cold air. It appears that this will become increasingly sufficient for widely scattered to scattered convective development capable of producing lightning, perhaps as far north as portions of southern Oklahoma by 12Z Saturday. ..Kerr.. 01/21/2026 Read more

NOAA to map critical mineral deposits in deep waters off American Samoa January 22, 2026

Polymetallic nodules, such as those shown here, can occur on the ocean floor and are of interest for the critical minerals they contain.  (Image credit: NOAA)

Download Image

NOAA’s National Ocean Service announced today a new hydrographic survey project to map and characterize more than 30,000 square nautical miles of federal waters off American Samoa. This project is part of the Department of Commerce's implementation of the U.S. Offshore Critical Minerals Mapping Plan as defined by President Trump’s Executive Order 14285: Unleashing America's Offshore Critical Minerals and Resources.

“NOAA is proud to play a leading role in the President’s plan unlocking access to critical minerals for domestic supply chains,” said Neil Jacobs, Ph.D., NOAA administrator. “This project highlights NOAA’s strong impact on economic resilience as we invest in research that supports sustainable deep sea mining practices and allows partners to better understand their marine environments.”

NOAA contractor NV5 offsite link, a current hydrographic survey services vendor, will begin survey work in February 2026. NOAA will use approximately $20M of fiscal year 2025 funding to produce publicly accessible maps, images and samples of the marine environment off the coast of American Samoa. These products will serve to inform NOAA, other federal agencies and interested parties of the critical mineral deposits and relative prospectivity of the surveyed area. This effort will generate high-quality and transparent deep-ocean data that will help to increase the baseline understanding of the federal waters off American Samoa’s deep-ocean environment, and will stimulate further exploration, research and management projects, including activities related to deep sea minerals.

About deep seabed mineral development

Deep seabed mining is the extraction of nodules containing critical minerals from the ocean floor. Some regions of the deep seabed contain an abundance of valuable resources like manganese, nickel, cobalt, copper and rare earth elements. Critical minerals are used in everything from defense systems and batteries to smartphones and medical devices and are increasingly important components for American manufacturing. Access to these minerals is a key factor in the resilience of U.S. supply chains. Learn more by visiting NOAA’s National Ocean Service website.

 

Media contact

NOAA Ocean Service Public Affairs at oceanservicepress@noaa.gov

Ocean & Coasts deep seabed mining mineral development seafloor mapping 0

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1102 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Aside from the risk for a few weak thunderstorms near southeastern Florida coastal areas, potential for thunderstorm development appears low across the U.S. Thursday through Thursday night. ...Discussion... A vigorous short wave trough emanating from the Canadian Arctic latitudes is forecast to dig southeast of the international border, across parts of the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region, and contribute to the maintenance of larger-scale mid-level troughing across the northern U.S. Great Plains through northern and middle Atlantic Seaboard. Beneath an increasingly confluent regime in its wake, models continue to indicate that a rather prominent, cold surface ridge will build southeastward along an axis across the middle/lower Missouri Valley into lower Ohio Valley by late Thursday night. It appears that a preceding surface frontal zone will stall and perhaps strengthen across the Carolinas through northern portions of the Gulf Coast states into southern Great Plains. Another is expected to slowly weaken across the Florida Peninsula and northern Gulf Basin, as much of the southern tier of the U.S. continues to come under the increasing influence of westerlies emanating from the mid- to subtropical eastern Pacific. Downstream of fairly sharp building mid-level ridging across the eastern mid-latitude Pacific, models have come in better agreement concerning a digging mid-level trough and embedded low offshore of the southern California/northern Baja Pacific coast. It is becoming more certain that the cyclonic circulation and colder temperatures associated with an elongating mid-level cold core will generally remain offshore of the southern California, before turning inland across northern Baja after 12Z Friday. ...Southern California... Models continue to indicate coldest offshore mid-level temperatures at a somewhat modest -22 to -24C around 500 mb. However, based on the latest Rapid Refresh and NAM forecast soundings, weak destabilization supportive of short-lived weak thunderstorm development may not be entirely out of the question near coastal areas, particularly where forcing for ascent is aided by orography near the Transverse and perhaps Peninsular Ranges. Certainty does not yet appear high enough for the minimum 10 percent threshold, but this will continue to be monitored. ...Gulf Coast States... Given the general tendency for warming mid-levels, and the lack of both more substantive further low-level moistening off a slowly modifying Gulf boundary layer and mid/upper support for ascent, the risk for thunderstorm activity still appears minimal Thursday through Thursday night. The primary exception still appears near southeastern Florida coastal areas, in response to increasing boundary-layer destabilization and convergence, near developing surface troughing and the remnant surface front, perhaps aided by forcing associated with weak perturbations within the subtropical westerlies. ..Kerr.. 01/21/2026 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1102 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Aside from the risk for a few weak thunderstorms near southeastern Florida coastal areas, potential for thunderstorm development appears low across the U.S. Thursday through Thursday night. ...Discussion... A vigorous short wave trough emanating from the Canadian Arctic latitudes is forecast to dig southeast of the international border, across parts of the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region, and contribute to the maintenance of larger-scale mid-level troughing across the northern U.S. Great Plains through northern and middle Atlantic Seaboard. Beneath an increasingly confluent regime in its wake, models continue to indicate that a rather prominent, cold surface ridge will build southeastward along an axis across the middle/lower Missouri Valley into lower Ohio Valley by late Thursday night. It appears that a preceding surface frontal zone will stall and perhaps strengthen across the Carolinas through northern portions of the Gulf Coast states into southern Great Plains. Another is expected to slowly weaken across the Florida Peninsula and northern Gulf Basin, as much of the southern tier of the U.S. continues to come under the increasing influence of westerlies emanating from the mid- to subtropical eastern Pacific. Downstream of fairly sharp building mid-level ridging across the eastern mid-latitude Pacific, models have come in better agreement concerning a digging mid-level trough and embedded low offshore of the southern California/northern Baja Pacific coast. It is becoming more certain that the cyclonic circulation and colder temperatures associated with an elongating mid-level cold core will generally remain offshore of the southern California, before turning inland across northern Baja after 12Z Friday. ...Southern California... Models continue to indicate coldest offshore mid-level temperatures at a somewhat modest -22 to -24C around 500 mb. However, based on the latest Rapid Refresh and NAM forecast soundings, weak destabilization supportive of short-lived weak thunderstorm development may not be entirely out of the question near coastal areas, particularly where forcing for ascent is aided by orography near the Transverse and perhaps Peninsular Ranges. Certainty does not yet appear high enough for the minimum 10 percent threshold, but this will continue to be monitored. ...Gulf Coast States... Given the general tendency for warming mid-levels, and the lack of both more substantive further low-level moistening off a slowly modifying Gulf boundary layer and mid/upper support for ascent, the risk for thunderstorm activity still appears minimal Thursday through Thursday night. The primary exception still appears near southeastern Florida coastal areas, in response to increasing boundary-layer destabilization and convergence, near developing surface troughing and the remnant surface front, perhaps aided by forcing associated with weak perturbations within the subtropical westerlies. ..Kerr.. 01/21/2026 Read more