SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An arctic air mass will begin to infiltrate the northern and central Plains on Thursday, limiting the fire-weather risk across much of the CONUS. The only exception will be in the lee of the southern Rockies in NM, where westerly/downslope flow and lee troughing will favor locally dry/breezy conditions during the afternoon. ..Weinman.. 01/21/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An arctic air mass will begin to infiltrate the northern and central Plains on Thursday, limiting the fire-weather risk across much of the CONUS. The only exception will be in the lee of the southern Rockies in NM, where westerly/downslope flow and lee troughing will favor locally dry/breezy conditions during the afternoon. ..Weinman.. 01/21/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A northwesterly jet streak will overspread the northern/central Plains today, while a related cold front moves across the region. Along/immediately ahead of the front, breezy/gusty northwesterly surface winds and around 25 percent RH may yield locally elevated fire-weather conditions across parts of southeast WY, southwest NE, and northeast CO. However, the overall risk should be spatially and temporally limited by the southward-moving cold front. Farther south, enhanced northwesterly flow aloft and related lee troughing over the central High Plains will also lead to locally dry/breezy conditions in the immediate lee of the Front Range and Sangre de Cristo Mountains in CO and northern NM. ..Weinman.. 01/21/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A northwesterly jet streak will overspread the northern/central Plains today, while a related cold front moves across the region. Along/immediately ahead of the front, breezy/gusty northwesterly surface winds and around 25 percent RH may yield locally elevated fire-weather conditions across parts of southeast WY, southwest NE, and northeast CO. However, the overall risk should be spatially and temporally limited by the southward-moving cold front. Farther south, enhanced northwesterly flow aloft and related lee troughing over the central High Plains will also lead to locally dry/breezy conditions in the immediate lee of the Front Range and Sangre de Cristo Mountains in CO and northern NM. ..Weinman.. 01/21/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A northwesterly jet streak will overspread the northern/central Plains today, while a related cold front moves across the region. Along/immediately ahead of the front, breezy/gusty northwesterly surface winds and around 25 percent RH may yield locally elevated fire-weather conditions across parts of southeast WY, southwest NE, and northeast CO. However, the overall risk should be spatially and temporally limited by the southward-moving cold front. Farther south, enhanced northwesterly flow aloft and related lee troughing over the central High Plains will also lead to locally dry/breezy conditions in the immediate lee of the Front Range and Sangre de Cristo Mountains in CO and northern NM. ..Weinman.. 01/21/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A northwesterly jet streak will overspread the northern/central Plains today, while a related cold front moves across the region. Along/immediately ahead of the front, breezy/gusty northwesterly surface winds and around 25 percent RH may yield locally elevated fire-weather conditions across parts of southeast WY, southwest NE, and northeast CO. However, the overall risk should be spatially and temporally limited by the southward-moving cold front. Farther south, enhanced northwesterly flow aloft and related lee troughing over the central High Plains will also lead to locally dry/breezy conditions in the immediate lee of the Front Range and Sangre de Cristo Mountains in CO and northern NM. ..Weinman.. 01/21/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0114 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across parts of Texas on Friday. ...Synopsis... An upper shortwave trough offshore southern CA and northern Baja will quickly eject east to northwest Mexico and the Southwest on Friday/Friday night. This will result in increasing southwesterly mid/upper flow across the southern Plains as an arctic cold front plunges southward across TX. Modest Gulf moisture will be in place ahead of the front across portions of southern TX and the TX Coastal Plain. As temperatures aloft cool and warm advection in the midlevels overspreads the southward-advancing cold front, isolated thunderstorms will be possible. A few lightning flashes could even accompany winter precipitation as the arctic airmass begins to filter southward through the period. Severe storms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 01/21/2026 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0114 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across parts of Texas on Friday. ...Synopsis... An upper shortwave trough offshore southern CA and northern Baja will quickly eject east to northwest Mexico and the Southwest on Friday/Friday night. This will result in increasing southwesterly mid/upper flow across the southern Plains as an arctic cold front plunges southward across TX. Modest Gulf moisture will be in place ahead of the front across portions of southern TX and the TX Coastal Plain. As temperatures aloft cool and warm advection in the midlevels overspreads the southward-advancing cold front, isolated thunderstorms will be possible. A few lightning flashes could even accompany winter precipitation as the arctic airmass begins to filter southward through the period. Severe storms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 01/21/2026 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0114 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across parts of Texas on Friday. ...Synopsis... An upper shortwave trough offshore southern CA and northern Baja will quickly eject east to northwest Mexico and the Southwest on Friday/Friday night. This will result in increasing southwesterly mid/upper flow across the southern Plains as an arctic cold front plunges southward across TX. Modest Gulf moisture will be in place ahead of the front across portions of southern TX and the TX Coastal Plain. As temperatures aloft cool and warm advection in the midlevels overspreads the southward-advancing cold front, isolated thunderstorms will be possible. A few lightning flashes could even accompany winter precipitation as the arctic airmass begins to filter southward through the period. Severe storms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 01/21/2026 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0114 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across parts of Texas on Friday. ...Synopsis... An upper shortwave trough offshore southern CA and northern Baja will quickly eject east to northwest Mexico and the Southwest on Friday/Friday night. This will result in increasing southwesterly mid/upper flow across the southern Plains as an arctic cold front plunges southward across TX. Modest Gulf moisture will be in place ahead of the front across portions of southern TX and the TX Coastal Plain. As temperatures aloft cool and warm advection in the midlevels overspreads the southward-advancing cold front, isolated thunderstorms will be possible. A few lightning flashes could even accompany winter precipitation as the arctic airmass begins to filter southward through the period. Severe storms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 01/21/2026 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... Broad upper troughing will persist across most of the CONUS on Thursday. Modified Gulf moisture will be in place across portions of south/southeast TX into the central Gulf Coast and central/southern FL on the southern periphery of strengthening surface high pressure over the Plains and Midwest. Some very modest instability could develop over the southeast FL Peninsula. However, nebulous large-scale ascent and modest lapse rates will limit thunderstorm potential inland. A couple of thunderstorms are possible offshore, but coverage of lightning flashes near the coast appears limited, precluding 10 percent general thunder delineation. Elsewhere, cold and/or stable conditions will preclude thunderstorm activity. ..Leitman.. 01/21/2026 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... Broad upper troughing will persist across most of the CONUS on Thursday. Modified Gulf moisture will be in place across portions of south/southeast TX into the central Gulf Coast and central/southern FL on the southern periphery of strengthening surface high pressure over the Plains and Midwest. Some very modest instability could develop over the southeast FL Peninsula. However, nebulous large-scale ascent and modest lapse rates will limit thunderstorm potential inland. A couple of thunderstorms are possible offshore, but coverage of lightning flashes near the coast appears limited, precluding 10 percent general thunder delineation. Elsewhere, cold and/or stable conditions will preclude thunderstorm activity. ..Leitman.. 01/21/2026 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... Broad upper troughing will persist across most of the CONUS on Thursday. Modified Gulf moisture will be in place across portions of south/southeast TX into the central Gulf Coast and central/southern FL on the southern periphery of strengthening surface high pressure over the Plains and Midwest. Some very modest instability could develop over the southeast FL Peninsula. However, nebulous large-scale ascent and modest lapse rates will limit thunderstorm potential inland. A couple of thunderstorms are possible offshore, but coverage of lightning flashes near the coast appears limited, precluding 10 percent general thunder delineation. Elsewhere, cold and/or stable conditions will preclude thunderstorm activity. ..Leitman.. 01/21/2026 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... Broad upper troughing will persist across most of the CONUS on Thursday. Modified Gulf moisture will be in place across portions of south/southeast TX into the central Gulf Coast and central/southern FL on the southern periphery of strengthening surface high pressure over the Plains and Midwest. Some very modest instability could develop over the southeast FL Peninsula. However, nebulous large-scale ascent and modest lapse rates will limit thunderstorm potential inland. A couple of thunderstorms are possible offshore, but coverage of lightning flashes near the coast appears limited, precluding 10 percent general thunder delineation. Elsewhere, cold and/or stable conditions will preclude thunderstorm activity. ..Leitman.. 01/21/2026 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 PM CST Tue Jan 20 2026 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected across parts of the western and central Gulf Coast states this afternoon and evening. ...DISCUSSION... A long-wave cyclonic flow pattern will be in place today across the U.S, as an embedded mid-level shortwave trough moves across the south-central U.S. At the surface, a cold front will advance southeastward into the western and central Gulf Coast states today. Ahead of the front, low-level moisture and instability will be sufficient for isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms. However, no severe threat is expected to develop. Elsewhere across the continental U.S., thunderstorms are not forecast today or tonight. ..Broyles/Weinman.. 01/21/2026 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 PM CST Tue Jan 20 2026 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected across parts of the western and central Gulf Coast states this afternoon and evening. ...DISCUSSION... A long-wave cyclonic flow pattern will be in place today across the U.S, as an embedded mid-level shortwave trough moves across the south-central U.S. At the surface, a cold front will advance southeastward into the western and central Gulf Coast states today. Ahead of the front, low-level moisture and instability will be sufficient for isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms. However, no severe threat is expected to develop. Elsewhere across the continental U.S., thunderstorms are not forecast today or tonight. ..Broyles/Weinman.. 01/21/2026 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 PM CST Tue Jan 20 2026 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected across parts of the western and central Gulf Coast states this afternoon and evening. ...DISCUSSION... A long-wave cyclonic flow pattern will be in place today across the U.S, as an embedded mid-level shortwave trough moves across the south-central U.S. At the surface, a cold front will advance southeastward into the western and central Gulf Coast states today. Ahead of the front, low-level moisture and instability will be sufficient for isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms. However, no severe threat is expected to develop. Elsewhere across the continental U.S., thunderstorms are not forecast today or tonight. ..Broyles/Weinman.. 01/21/2026 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 PM CST Tue Jan 20 2026 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected across parts of the western and central Gulf Coast states this afternoon and evening. ...DISCUSSION... A long-wave cyclonic flow pattern will be in place today across the U.S, as an embedded mid-level shortwave trough moves across the south-central U.S. At the surface, a cold front will advance southeastward into the western and central Gulf Coast states today. Ahead of the front, low-level moisture and instability will be sufficient for isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms. However, no severe threat is expected to develop. Elsewhere across the continental U.S., thunderstorms are not forecast today or tonight. ..Broyles/Weinman.. 01/21/2026 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0655 PM CST Tue Jan 20 2026 Valid 210100Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. today or tonight. ...DISCUSSION... A large-scale cyclonic flow pattern will remain in place over the U.S. this evening and tonight. At the surface, a large area of high pressure will be located from the Gulf Coast states northeastward to the Eastern Seaboard. A dry and cold airmass will remain over much of the continental U.S. through tonight, making conditions unfavorable for thunderstorms. ..Broyles.. 01/21/2026 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0655 PM CST Tue Jan 20 2026 Valid 210100Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. today or tonight. ...DISCUSSION... A large-scale cyclonic flow pattern will remain in place over the U.S. this evening and tonight. At the surface, a large area of high pressure will be located from the Gulf Coast states northeastward to the Eastern Seaboard. A dry and cold airmass will remain over much of the continental U.S. through tonight, making conditions unfavorable for thunderstorms. ..Broyles.. 01/21/2026 Read more