SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1059 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026 Valid 201700Z - 211200Z Broad northwesterly flow aloft ahead of an approaching mid-level short wave will persist over the Southern Rockies. A deepening surface low currently across the northern High Plains is still expected to drop southward into southeastern CO by late afternoon. Resultant downslope flow in the lee of the Rockies is supporting current RH values below 10 percent across south-central CO. The dry conditions and receptive fuels will combine with west winds of 15-20 mph to bring a elevated fire weather conditions to locations in the lee of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains in southern CO through this afternoon. A broader east-northwest wind field of 15-20 mph across northeastern CO, southwestern NE, and northwest KS along with RH reductions in the 15-20 percent range amid receptive fuels will support an elevated fire weather threat today. Veering winds associated with an advancing cold front will move into northeast CO and vicinity by late afternoon, allowing for colder temperatures and rising RH within northerly flow to diminish fire weather concerns this evening. ..Williams.. 01/20/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0145 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026/ ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude shortwave trough and accompanying speed maximum will cross the central Rockies during the afternoon, while an attendant surface low tracks south-southeastward along the northern/central High Plains. Related downslope flow will yield 10-15 percent RH across much of the central High Plains, where around 20 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) are expected. These dry/windy conditions will favor elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions over northeastern CO, southwestern NE, and northwest KS. A separate corridor of elevated fire-weather conditions is expected in the lee of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains in southern CO, with locally critical conditions possible within the gap flow areas. Between these two corridors, recent snowfall should limit fire-weather concerns. Elsewhere, modestly breezy northeasterly surface winds are expected amid a dry antecedent air mass across parts of the western and central FL Peninsula, where locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1059 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026 Valid 201700Z - 211200Z Broad northwesterly flow aloft ahead of an approaching mid-level short wave will persist over the Southern Rockies. A deepening surface low currently across the northern High Plains is still expected to drop southward into southeastern CO by late afternoon. Resultant downslope flow in the lee of the Rockies is supporting current RH values below 10 percent across south-central CO. The dry conditions and receptive fuels will combine with west winds of 15-20 mph to bring a elevated fire weather conditions to locations in the lee of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains in southern CO through this afternoon. A broader east-northwest wind field of 15-20 mph across northeastern CO, southwestern NE, and northwest KS along with RH reductions in the 15-20 percent range amid receptive fuels will support an elevated fire weather threat today. Veering winds associated with an advancing cold front will move into northeast CO and vicinity by late afternoon, allowing for colder temperatures and rising RH within northerly flow to diminish fire weather concerns this evening. ..Williams.. 01/20/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0145 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026/ ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude shortwave trough and accompanying speed maximum will cross the central Rockies during the afternoon, while an attendant surface low tracks south-southeastward along the northern/central High Plains. Related downslope flow will yield 10-15 percent RH across much of the central High Plains, where around 20 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) are expected. These dry/windy conditions will favor elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions over northeastern CO, southwestern NE, and northwest KS. A separate corridor of elevated fire-weather conditions is expected in the lee of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains in southern CO, with locally critical conditions possible within the gap flow areas. Between these two corridors, recent snowfall should limit fire-weather concerns. Elsewhere, modestly breezy northeasterly surface winds are expected amid a dry antecedent air mass across parts of the western and central FL Peninsula, where locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1045 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered weak thunderstorm activity is possible Wednesday into Wednesday evening across parts of southeastern Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley. ...Discussion... While an initially prominent mid-level ridge, centered offshore of the Pacific Northwest/British Columbia coast into Alaska, will undergo more notable weakening through this period, models indicate that large-scale downstream troughing will generally be maintained across much of interior and eastern North America. It appears that this will be reinforced by a strong short wave trough emerging from the Canadian Arctic latitudes, before digging around the western periphery of Hudson Bay, toward the central international border area. This is forecast to be accompanied by modest cyclogenesis across and northeast of the Great Lakes, and a more notable reinforcing cold intrusion into the Ohio and Missouri Valleys, in the wake of a preceding one reaching the Mid Atlantic, northern Gulf Coast states and Texas Gulf coastal plain by 12Z Wednesday At the same time, it still appears that much of the southern tier of the U.S. will continue to come under the increasing influence of westerlies emanating from the southern mid- to subtropical latitudes of the eastern Pacific. Within this regime, a notable developing mid-level low is forecast to slowly dig toward the southern California/northern Baja coast, downstream of a building short wave ridge over the mid-latitude eastern Pacific. While forecast soundings suggest that this may be preceded by an inland spreading band of weak convection, associated with mid/high-level moisture return from the lower latitude eastern Pacific, the modest and relatively compact mid-level cold core of the low is forecast to remain offshore through this period. This will minimize the risk for boundary-layer destabilization, and any appreciable potential for convection capable of producing lightning, across and inland of coastal areas. Downstream, lower/mid-tropospheric moisture return is likely to continue across parts of southern/eastern Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley Wednesday through Wednesday night. Although, in lower levels, this will be off a still modifying western Gulf boundary layer, it appears that elevated inland moistening, beneath the southern periphery of colder mid-level air slowly retreating to somewhat higher latitudes, will contribute to weak elevated destabilization. Forecast soundings continue to suggest that this may become sufficient to support convection capable of producing lightning, mainly in a corridor from southeast Texas east-northeastward through the lower Mississippi Valley, aided by forcing for ascent associated with one or two short wave perturbations within the lingering cyclonic flow. ..Kerr.. 01/20/2026 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1045 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered weak thunderstorm activity is possible Wednesday into Wednesday evening across parts of southeastern Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley. ...Discussion... While an initially prominent mid-level ridge, centered offshore of the Pacific Northwest/British Columbia coast into Alaska, will undergo more notable weakening through this period, models indicate that large-scale downstream troughing will generally be maintained across much of interior and eastern North America. It appears that this will be reinforced by a strong short wave trough emerging from the Canadian Arctic latitudes, before digging around the western periphery of Hudson Bay, toward the central international border area. This is forecast to be accompanied by modest cyclogenesis across and northeast of the Great Lakes, and a more notable reinforcing cold intrusion into the Ohio and Missouri Valleys, in the wake of a preceding one reaching the Mid Atlantic, northern Gulf Coast states and Texas Gulf coastal plain by 12Z Wednesday At the same time, it still appears that much of the southern tier of the U.S. will continue to come under the increasing influence of westerlies emanating from the southern mid- to subtropical latitudes of the eastern Pacific. Within this regime, a notable developing mid-level low is forecast to slowly dig toward the southern California/northern Baja coast, downstream of a building short wave ridge over the mid-latitude eastern Pacific. While forecast soundings suggest that this may be preceded by an inland spreading band of weak convection, associated with mid/high-level moisture return from the lower latitude eastern Pacific, the modest and relatively compact mid-level cold core of the low is forecast to remain offshore through this period. This will minimize the risk for boundary-layer destabilization, and any appreciable potential for convection capable of producing lightning, across and inland of coastal areas. Downstream, lower/mid-tropospheric moisture return is likely to continue across parts of southern/eastern Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley Wednesday through Wednesday night. Although, in lower levels, this will be off a still modifying western Gulf boundary layer, it appears that elevated inland moistening, beneath the southern periphery of colder mid-level air slowly retreating to somewhat higher latitudes, will contribute to weak elevated destabilization. Forecast soundings continue to suggest that this may become sufficient to support convection capable of producing lightning, mainly in a corridor from southeast Texas east-northeastward through the lower Mississippi Valley, aided by forcing for ascent associated with one or two short wave perturbations within the lingering cyclonic flow. ..Kerr.. 01/20/2026 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1045 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered weak thunderstorm activity is possible Wednesday into Wednesday evening across parts of southeastern Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley. ...Discussion... While an initially prominent mid-level ridge, centered offshore of the Pacific Northwest/British Columbia coast into Alaska, will undergo more notable weakening through this period, models indicate that large-scale downstream troughing will generally be maintained across much of interior and eastern North America. It appears that this will be reinforced by a strong short wave trough emerging from the Canadian Arctic latitudes, before digging around the western periphery of Hudson Bay, toward the central international border area. This is forecast to be accompanied by modest cyclogenesis across and northeast of the Great Lakes, and a more notable reinforcing cold intrusion into the Ohio and Missouri Valleys, in the wake of a preceding one reaching the Mid Atlantic, northern Gulf Coast states and Texas Gulf coastal plain by 12Z Wednesday At the same time, it still appears that much of the southern tier of the U.S. will continue to come under the increasing influence of westerlies emanating from the southern mid- to subtropical latitudes of the eastern Pacific. Within this regime, a notable developing mid-level low is forecast to slowly dig toward the southern California/northern Baja coast, downstream of a building short wave ridge over the mid-latitude eastern Pacific. While forecast soundings suggest that this may be preceded by an inland spreading band of weak convection, associated with mid/high-level moisture return from the lower latitude eastern Pacific, the modest and relatively compact mid-level cold core of the low is forecast to remain offshore through this period. This will minimize the risk for boundary-layer destabilization, and any appreciable potential for convection capable of producing lightning, across and inland of coastal areas. Downstream, lower/mid-tropospheric moisture return is likely to continue across parts of southern/eastern Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley Wednesday through Wednesday night. Although, in lower levels, this will be off a still modifying western Gulf boundary layer, it appears that elevated inland moistening, beneath the southern periphery of colder mid-level air slowly retreating to somewhat higher latitudes, will contribute to weak elevated destabilization. Forecast soundings continue to suggest that this may become sufficient to support convection capable of producing lightning, mainly in a corridor from southeast Texas east-northeastward through the lower Mississippi Valley, aided by forcing for ascent associated with one or two short wave perturbations within the lingering cyclonic flow. ..Kerr.. 01/20/2026 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1045 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered weak thunderstorm activity is possible Wednesday into Wednesday evening across parts of southeastern Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley. ...Discussion... While an initially prominent mid-level ridge, centered offshore of the Pacific Northwest/British Columbia coast into Alaska, will undergo more notable weakening through this period, models indicate that large-scale downstream troughing will generally be maintained across much of interior and eastern North America. It appears that this will be reinforced by a strong short wave trough emerging from the Canadian Arctic latitudes, before digging around the western periphery of Hudson Bay, toward the central international border area. This is forecast to be accompanied by modest cyclogenesis across and northeast of the Great Lakes, and a more notable reinforcing cold intrusion into the Ohio and Missouri Valleys, in the wake of a preceding one reaching the Mid Atlantic, northern Gulf Coast states and Texas Gulf coastal plain by 12Z Wednesday At the same time, it still appears that much of the southern tier of the U.S. will continue to come under the increasing influence of westerlies emanating from the southern mid- to subtropical latitudes of the eastern Pacific. Within this regime, a notable developing mid-level low is forecast to slowly dig toward the southern California/northern Baja coast, downstream of a building short wave ridge over the mid-latitude eastern Pacific. While forecast soundings suggest that this may be preceded by an inland spreading band of weak convection, associated with mid/high-level moisture return from the lower latitude eastern Pacific, the modest and relatively compact mid-level cold core of the low is forecast to remain offshore through this period. This will minimize the risk for boundary-layer destabilization, and any appreciable potential for convection capable of producing lightning, across and inland of coastal areas. Downstream, lower/mid-tropospheric moisture return is likely to continue across parts of southern/eastern Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley Wednesday through Wednesday night. Although, in lower levels, this will be off a still modifying western Gulf boundary layer, it appears that elevated inland moistening, beneath the southern periphery of colder mid-level air slowly retreating to somewhat higher latitudes, will contribute to weak elevated destabilization. Forecast soundings continue to suggest that this may become sufficient to support convection capable of producing lightning, mainly in a corridor from southeast Texas east-northeastward through the lower Mississippi Valley, aided by forcing for ascent associated with one or two short wave perturbations within the lingering cyclonic flow. ..Kerr.. 01/20/2026 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1045 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered weak thunderstorm activity is possible Wednesday into Wednesday evening across parts of southeastern Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley. ...Discussion... While an initially prominent mid-level ridge, centered offshore of the Pacific Northwest/British Columbia coast into Alaska, will undergo more notable weakening through this period, models indicate that large-scale downstream troughing will generally be maintained across much of interior and eastern North America. It appears that this will be reinforced by a strong short wave trough emerging from the Canadian Arctic latitudes, before digging around the western periphery of Hudson Bay, toward the central international border area. This is forecast to be accompanied by modest cyclogenesis across and northeast of the Great Lakes, and a more notable reinforcing cold intrusion into the Ohio and Missouri Valleys, in the wake of a preceding one reaching the Mid Atlantic, northern Gulf Coast states and Texas Gulf coastal plain by 12Z Wednesday At the same time, it still appears that much of the southern tier of the U.S. will continue to come under the increasing influence of westerlies emanating from the southern mid- to subtropical latitudes of the eastern Pacific. Within this regime, a notable developing mid-level low is forecast to slowly dig toward the southern California/northern Baja coast, downstream of a building short wave ridge over the mid-latitude eastern Pacific. While forecast soundings suggest that this may be preceded by an inland spreading band of weak convection, associated with mid/high-level moisture return from the lower latitude eastern Pacific, the modest and relatively compact mid-level cold core of the low is forecast to remain offshore through this period. This will minimize the risk for boundary-layer destabilization, and any appreciable potential for convection capable of producing lightning, across and inland of coastal areas. Downstream, lower/mid-tropospheric moisture return is likely to continue across parts of southern/eastern Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley Wednesday through Wednesday night. Although, in lower levels, this will be off a still modifying western Gulf boundary layer, it appears that elevated inland moistening, beneath the southern periphery of colder mid-level air slowly retreating to somewhat higher latitudes, will contribute to weak elevated destabilization. Forecast soundings continue to suggest that this may become sufficient to support convection capable of producing lightning, mainly in a corridor from southeast Texas east-northeastward through the lower Mississippi Valley, aided by forcing for ascent associated with one or two short wave perturbations within the lingering cyclonic flow. ..Kerr.. 01/20/2026 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0953 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026 Valid 201630Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. today or tonight. ...Discussion... A prominent longwave trough will remain entrenched from the Rockies to the western Atlantic, with a general prevalence of cold/dry continental trajectories and surface high pressure over the eastern third of the CONUS. Airmass modification will occur with a modest increase in low-level moisture toward coastal Texas tonight. However, instability is expected to remain too limited to support thunderstorms through tonight. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 01/20/2026 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0953 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026 Valid 201630Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. today or tonight. ...Discussion... A prominent longwave trough will remain entrenched from the Rockies to the western Atlantic, with a general prevalence of cold/dry continental trajectories and surface high pressure over the eastern third of the CONUS. Airmass modification will occur with a modest increase in low-level moisture toward coastal Texas tonight. However, instability is expected to remain too limited to support thunderstorms through tonight. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 01/20/2026 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0953 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026 Valid 201630Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. today or tonight. ...Discussion... A prominent longwave trough will remain entrenched from the Rockies to the western Atlantic, with a general prevalence of cold/dry continental trajectories and surface high pressure over the eastern third of the CONUS. Airmass modification will occur with a modest increase in low-level moisture toward coastal Texas tonight. However, instability is expected to remain too limited to support thunderstorms through tonight. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 01/20/2026 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0953 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026 Valid 201630Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. today or tonight. ...Discussion... A prominent longwave trough will remain entrenched from the Rockies to the western Atlantic, with a general prevalence of cold/dry continental trajectories and surface high pressure over the eastern third of the CONUS. Airmass modification will occur with a modest increase in low-level moisture toward coastal Texas tonight. However, instability is expected to remain too limited to support thunderstorms through tonight. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 01/20/2026 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0953 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026 Valid 201630Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. today or tonight. ...Discussion... A prominent longwave trough will remain entrenched from the Rockies to the western Atlantic, with a general prevalence of cold/dry continental trajectories and surface high pressure over the eastern third of the CONUS. Airmass modification will occur with a modest increase in low-level moisture toward coastal Texas tonight. However, instability is expected to remain too limited to support thunderstorms through tonight. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 01/20/2026 Read more

MD 0030 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR EASTERN SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO INTO THE TUG HILL PLATEAU
Mesoscale Discussion 0030 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0522 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026 Areas affected...Eastern shore of Lake Ontario into the Tug Hill Plateau Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 201122Z - 201615Z SUMMARY...A heavy lake-effect snow band will continue through the morning, with rates of 2-4 inches/hour possible in the most intense portions of the band. DISCUSSION...A well-established lake-effect snow band is ongoing from Lake Ontario into parts of the Tug Hill Plateau this morning. While some north-south oscillations will be possible as a minor midlevel shortwave trough approaches from the west, this band is expected to persist through the morning. A favorably long fetch off of Lake Ontario and a relatively deep convective boundary layer will continue to favor very heavy snow rates within the most intense portions of the band. Short-term guidance indicates that midlevel temperatures will reach a minimum (-32 to -33 C at 700 mb) by mid/late morning, and snow rates of 2-4 inches/hour will continue to be possible through this time frame. Some warming aloft and modest lowering of equilibrium levels is eventually expected in the wake of the approaching shortwave trough, but the favorable fetch will help to maintain this band through much of the day. ..Dean.. 01/20/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BUF... LAT...LON 43977635 44047581 44027529 43777512 43597509 43477539 43437602 43467629 43547644 43977635 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0648 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026 Valid 201300Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. today or tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... With large-scale upper troughing persisting over central/eastern Canada and the CONUS today, expansive surface high pressure in place across the MS/OH Valleys and eastern states will shift gradually eastward as weak surface lee troughing/low development occurs across the central High Plains. Modest low-level moisture will advance slightly inland across parts of deep south into coastal/east TX, but instability is expected to remain too limited to support thunderstorms through the end of the period. ..Gleason/Dean.. 01/20/2026 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0648 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026 Valid 201300Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. today or tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... With large-scale upper troughing persisting over central/eastern Canada and the CONUS today, expansive surface high pressure in place across the MS/OH Valleys and eastern states will shift gradually eastward as weak surface lee troughing/low development occurs across the central High Plains. Modest low-level moisture will advance slightly inland across parts of deep south into coastal/east TX, but instability is expected to remain too limited to support thunderstorms through the end of the period. ..Gleason/Dean.. 01/20/2026 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0648 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026 Valid 201300Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. today or tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... With large-scale upper troughing persisting over central/eastern Canada and the CONUS today, expansive surface high pressure in place across the MS/OH Valleys and eastern states will shift gradually eastward as weak surface lee troughing/low development occurs across the central High Plains. Modest low-level moisture will advance slightly inland across parts of deep south into coastal/east TX, but instability is expected to remain too limited to support thunderstorms through the end of the period. ..Gleason/Dean.. 01/20/2026 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0648 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026 Valid 201300Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. today or tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... With large-scale upper troughing persisting over central/eastern Canada and the CONUS today, expansive surface high pressure in place across the MS/OH Valleys and eastern states will shift gradually eastward as weak surface lee troughing/low development occurs across the central High Plains. Modest low-level moisture will advance slightly inland across parts of deep south into coastal/east TX, but instability is expected to remain too limited to support thunderstorms through the end of the period. ..Gleason/Dean.. 01/20/2026 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026 Valid 231200Z - 281200Z ...DISCUSSION... An arctic airmass will settle across much of the CONUS east of the Rockies on Days 4-5/Fri-Sat. Resulting strong high pressure and cold/dry/stable conditions will persist over much of the country throughout the period. However, some thunderstorm potential could develop across portions of the Gulf Coast states/Southeast on Days 4-6/Fri-Sun as a surface cold front progresses east/southeast. Modified Gulf moisture will be in place near the immediate Gulf Coast. Warm advection in the low-levels could result in isolated thunderstorms near or just to the cool side of the cold front Friday afternoon across parts of TX, spreading east/northeast across the Southeast through Saturday and early Sunday. Instability should remain weak as better moisture remains offshore, and due to convection becoming undercut by the cold front. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026 Valid 231200Z - 281200Z ...DISCUSSION... An arctic airmass will settle across much of the CONUS east of the Rockies on Days 4-5/Fri-Sat. Resulting strong high pressure and cold/dry/stable conditions will persist over much of the country throughout the period. However, some thunderstorm potential could develop across portions of the Gulf Coast states/Southeast on Days 4-6/Fri-Sun as a surface cold front progresses east/southeast. Modified Gulf moisture will be in place near the immediate Gulf Coast. Warm advection in the low-levels could result in isolated thunderstorms near or just to the cool side of the cold front Friday afternoon across parts of TX, spreading east/northeast across the Southeast through Saturday and early Sunday. Instability should remain weak as better moisture remains offshore, and due to convection becoming undercut by the cold front. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026 Valid 231200Z - 281200Z ...DISCUSSION... An arctic airmass will settle across much of the CONUS east of the Rockies on Days 4-5/Fri-Sat. Resulting strong high pressure and cold/dry/stable conditions will persist over much of the country throughout the period. However, some thunderstorm potential could develop across portions of the Gulf Coast states/Southeast on Days 4-6/Fri-Sun as a surface cold front progresses east/southeast. Modified Gulf moisture will be in place near the immediate Gulf Coast. Warm advection in the low-levels could result in isolated thunderstorms near or just to the cool side of the cold front Friday afternoon across parts of TX, spreading east/northeast across the Southeast through Saturday and early Sunday. Instability should remain weak as better moisture remains offshore, and due to convection becoming undercut by the cold front. Read more