SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2026 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... A convectively inactive scenario will persist across the CONUS with virtually nil thunderstorm potential. Longwave trough will persist east of the Rockies with associated cold/continental trajectories prevalent, with upper ridging over the Rockies and Intermountain West. Multiple shortwave troughs will influence the Pacific Northwest, but the potential for lighting-producing convection is likely to remain low even in near-coastal areas given the forecast thermodynamic profiles. ..Guyer/Thornton.. 01/29/2026 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2026 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... A convectively inactive scenario will persist across the CONUS with virtually nil thunderstorm potential. Longwave trough will persist east of the Rockies with associated cold/continental trajectories prevalent, with upper ridging over the Rockies and Intermountain West. Multiple shortwave troughs will influence the Pacific Northwest, but the potential for lighting-producing convection is likely to remain low even in near-coastal areas given the forecast thermodynamic profiles. ..Guyer/Thornton.. 01/29/2026 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2026 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be negligible on D2/Friday. A surface high will build in across the central US, further reinforcing the cold arctic air southward into the Plains and Missouri/Mississippi River Valleys. This pattern will favor generally light winds and with the very cold air mass will keep fire concerns low across the CONUS. ..Thornton.. 01/29/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2026 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be negligible on D2/Friday. A surface high will build in across the central US, further reinforcing the cold arctic air southward into the Plains and Missouri/Mississippi River Valleys. This pattern will favor generally light winds and with the very cold air mass will keep fire concerns low across the CONUS. ..Thornton.. 01/29/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2026 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be negligible on D2/Friday. A surface high will build in across the central US, further reinforcing the cold arctic air southward into the Plains and Missouri/Mississippi River Valleys. This pattern will favor generally light winds and with the very cold air mass will keep fire concerns low across the CONUS. ..Thornton.. 01/29/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2026 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be negligible on D2/Friday. A surface high will build in across the central US, further reinforcing the cold arctic air southward into the Plains and Missouri/Mississippi River Valleys. This pattern will favor generally light winds and with the very cold air mass will keep fire concerns low across the CONUS. ..Thornton.. 01/29/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2026 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will move across the central Rockies today, with a surface low developing across eastern Colorado. A mostly dry cold front will shift southward across the Southern Plains. Some period of increasing surface wind (southerly becoming west and northwest as the front passes) will be possible. Temperatures will remain cool, with another reinforcing shot of cold arctic air behind the front. The continued cool conditions in addition to snow pack and generally wet fuels should keep fire concerns low. Across portions of the southern Florida Peninsula, dry conditions will continue. Afternoon relative humidity reductions to around 20-25 percent will be likely. Winds are expected to be mostly light, which will keep fire concerns low. ..Thornton.. 01/29/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2026 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will move across the central Rockies today, with a surface low developing across eastern Colorado. A mostly dry cold front will shift southward across the Southern Plains. Some period of increasing surface wind (southerly becoming west and northwest as the front passes) will be possible. Temperatures will remain cool, with another reinforcing shot of cold arctic air behind the front. The continued cool conditions in addition to snow pack and generally wet fuels should keep fire concerns low. Across portions of the southern Florida Peninsula, dry conditions will continue. Afternoon relative humidity reductions to around 20-25 percent will be likely. Winds are expected to be mostly light, which will keep fire concerns low. ..Thornton.. 01/29/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2026 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will move across the central Rockies today, with a surface low developing across eastern Colorado. A mostly dry cold front will shift southward across the Southern Plains. Some period of increasing surface wind (southerly becoming west and northwest as the front passes) will be possible. Temperatures will remain cool, with another reinforcing shot of cold arctic air behind the front. The continued cool conditions in addition to snow pack and generally wet fuels should keep fire concerns low. Across portions of the southern Florida Peninsula, dry conditions will continue. Afternoon relative humidity reductions to around 20-25 percent will be likely. Winds are expected to be mostly light, which will keep fire concerns low. ..Thornton.. 01/29/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2026 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will move across the central Rockies today, with a surface low developing across eastern Colorado. A mostly dry cold front will shift southward across the Southern Plains. Some period of increasing surface wind (southerly becoming west and northwest as the front passes) will be possible. Temperatures will remain cool, with another reinforcing shot of cold arctic air behind the front. The continued cool conditions in addition to snow pack and generally wet fuels should keep fire concerns low. Across portions of the southern Florida Peninsula, dry conditions will continue. Afternoon relative humidity reductions to around 20-25 percent will be likely. Winds are expected to be mostly light, which will keep fire concerns low. ..Thornton.. 01/29/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0647 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2026 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...Discussion... The prevalence of cold/continental trajectories, especially east of the Rockies, will preclude thunderstorm development through tonight. ..Guyer.. 01/29/2026 Read more

No watches are valid as of Wed Jan 28 21:22:02 UTC 2026.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Jan 28 21:22:02 UTC 2026.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2026 Valid 301200Z - 051200Z A series of mid-level shortwave troughs will cross the northern Plains toward the southeast Atlantic Coastline through the middle of next week as they traverse a broader northwesterly upper flow regime. As a result, a series of surface high pressure surges will reinforce a near to sub-freezing airmass over much of the CONUS, particularly from the Mississippi River and points east, limiting wildfire spread concerns over most locales. Dry and occasionally breezy conditions may develop on occasion over portions of the Florida Peninsula and central/southern High Plains. However, the anticipated conditions would likely only support localized wildfire spread, precluding Critical probabilities this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 01/28/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2026 Valid 301200Z - 051200Z A series of mid-level shortwave troughs will cross the northern Plains toward the southeast Atlantic Coastline through the middle of next week as they traverse a broader northwesterly upper flow regime. As a result, a series of surface high pressure surges will reinforce a near to sub-freezing airmass over much of the CONUS, particularly from the Mississippi River and points east, limiting wildfire spread concerns over most locales. Dry and occasionally breezy conditions may develop on occasion over portions of the Florida Peninsula and central/southern High Plains. However, the anticipated conditions would likely only support localized wildfire spread, precluding Critical probabilities this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 01/28/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0120 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2026 Valid 282000Z - 291200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made to the outlook. ..Dean.. 01/28/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1000 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2026/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... Longwave upper troughing with multiple embedded mid-level perturbations over the eastern CONUS and Canada will maintain surface high pressure and offshore/continental low-level trajectories across the Southeast through tonight. A separate shortwave trough will continue to progress eastward over the Great Basin and northern/central Rockies/Plains today. Negligible instability across all these regions will preclude thunderstorms. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2026 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. Dry northerly surface winds will persist across the Florida Peninsula. While such conditions favor localized wildfire-spread potential, wind speeds should be too weak for widespread, significant fire weather conditions, so fire weather highlights are not currently needed. ..Squitieri.. 01/28/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2026/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will move across the central Rockies on D2/Thursday, with a surface low developing across eastern Colorado. A mostly dry cold front will shift southward across the Southern Plains. Some period of increasing surface wind (first from the south becoming west and northwest as the front passes) will be possible. Temperatures will remain cool, with another reinforcing shot of cold arctic air behind the front. The continued cool conditions in addition to snow pack and generally wet fuels should keep fire concerns low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1219 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2026 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm probabilities across the U.S. for Friday through Friday night appear less than 10 percent. ...Discussion... Models indicate that large-scale mid-level ridging will generally be maintained across the U.S. Pacific coast through Rockies, with short wave ridging also building along the British Columbia coast, in the wake of a short wave trough progressing inland across the Canadian and adjacent northern U.S. Rockies. Precipitation accompanying an associated baroclinic zone may linger into Friday across the Pacific Northwest, with perhaps an upstream warm frontal band also approaching coastal Washington by late Friday night. However, forecast soundings suggest that thermodynamic profiles will not become sufficiently unstable to support an appreciable risk for thunderstorm activity. Downstream, several short wave perturbations, including one vigorous impulse emerging from the Hudson Bay vicinity, are forecast to consolidate into amplifying, positively tilted large-scale troughing across much of the lower Mississippi Valley and Gulf Basin through southern Atlantic Seaboard by late Friday night. There remains notable spread concerning associated surface cyclogenesis, but it appears that this will remain weak across the eastern Gulf and adjacent Southeast, before undergoing notable strengthening offshore of the southern/mid Atlantic coast after 12Z Saturday. Along and south of a strengthening frontal zone, a deepening moist boundary-layer may become conditionally unstable across parts of the Florida Keys and southeastern Florida Peninsula by Friday. However, forecast soundings indicate that relatively warm and dry air in mid/upper levels will tend to suppress thunderstorm development. ..Kerr.. 01/28/2026 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1020 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2026 Valid 281700Z - 291200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 01/28/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0141 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2026/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low today across the CONUS. A cool and dry air mass will remain in place, with extensive snow pack reaching from the Southern Plains into portions of the Northeast. Overall, the recent cold and wet pattern has improved status of fuels in many areas. Some dry conditions will continue across southern Florida but mostly light winds will preclude the need to include any areas. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1008 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2026 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm probabilities across the U.S. appear less than 10 percent for Thursday through Thursday night. ...Discussion... Models indicate that mid/upper ridging will build inland of the Pacific coast, across the Sierra Nevada through the Canadian Rockies and western Prairies, through this period. As this occurs, a series of short wave perturbations emerging from evolving large-scale upstream troughing are forecast to approach the British Columbia/Pacific Northwest, within deep-layer southwesterly flow. Continuing low/mid-level moisture return is likely to support another round of precipitation with an inland migrating baroclinic wave. However, beneath relatively warm mid/upper levels, saturating thermodynamic profiles appear unlikely to become supportive of thunderstorm development. Meanwhile, an inland migrating short wave trough, preceding the building ridge, is forecast to dig across the Great Basin and Rockies, through the south central Great Plains and lower Mississippi Valley by late Thursday night, as a much more prominent short wave trough pivoting southwest of Hudson Bay progresses across the international border into the Upper Midwest. Beneath a confluent regime in the wake of the latter perturbation, it appears that another cold surface ridge will begin building across the international border through the northern Great Plains and upper Mississippi Valley. In advance of the perturbation emerging from the West, a weak developing lee surface low may be maintained across the Red River and lower Mississippi Valleys, while perhaps another weak wave develops along a remnant preceding frontal zone across the northwestern Gulf Basin. However, models indicate that western Gulf boundary-layer modification and inland moisture return will be quite limited, with little potential for destabilization supportive of an appreciable risk for thunderstorm activity. ..Kerr.. 01/28/2026 Read more