Storm Prediction Center

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Storm Prediction Center
Updated: 10 weeks 3 days ago

SPC Jan 30, 2026 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

Fri, 2026-01-30 00:44
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... A longwave trough will remain steadfast east of the Rockies, with upper ridging prevalent over much of the West aside from a few ridge-riding shortwave troughs over the Pacific Northwest and Canadian Rockies. Surface cyclogenesis is expected late tonight off the coastal south Atlantic, with the expectation that convection will also increase offshore in vicinity of the Gulf Stream overnight through early Saturday morning. However, it appears that lightning flash potential will remain limited (less than 10 percent) for the near-coastal areas of the Carolinas. ..Guyer/Wendt.. 01/30/2026 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Fri, 2026-01-30 00:38
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A strong upper trough will continue to pivot through the Southeast on Saturday. A low pressure system will deepen off the East Coast. While fuels will continue to dry in the West where upper level ridging will be present, surface high pressure/cold air should greatly limit fire weather concerns for most areas with drier fuels. ...Southern Georgia into North Florida... With a low pressure system deepening off the Mid-Atlantic coast, stronger surface winds will develop behind the cold front within the Southeast and the Florida Peninsula. Winds of 10-20 mph appear possible. With cold advection occurring, it is not clear how warm temperatures will rise or how low RH will fall. There does appear to be a zone from southern Georgia into North Florida where 25-35% RH is possible by the afternoon. However, temperatures will still likely be near 40 F and there is a slight chance for precipitation as the front moves through late Friday night. Uncertainty is too high for highlights. ..Wendt.. 01/30/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Fri, 2026-01-30 00:38
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A strong upper trough will continue to pivot through the Southeast on Saturday. A low pressure system will deepen off the East Coast. While fuels will continue to dry in the West where upper level ridging will be present, surface high pressure/cold air should greatly limit fire weather concerns for most areas with drier fuels. ...Southern Georgia into North Florida... With a low pressure system deepening off the Mid-Atlantic coast, stronger surface winds will develop behind the cold front within the Southeast and the Florida Peninsula. Winds of 10-20 mph appear possible. With cold advection occurring, it is not clear how warm temperatures will rise or how low RH will fall. There does appear to be a zone from southern Georgia into North Florida where 25-35% RH is possible by the afternoon. However, temperatures will still likely be near 40 F and there is a slight chance for precipitation as the front moves through late Friday night. Uncertainty is too high for highlights. ..Wendt.. 01/30/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Fri, 2026-01-30 00:38
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A strong upper trough will continue to pivot through the Southeast on Saturday. A low pressure system will deepen off the East Coast. While fuels will continue to dry in the West where upper level ridging will be present, surface high pressure/cold air should greatly limit fire weather concerns for most areas with drier fuels. ...Southern Georgia into North Florida... With a low pressure system deepening off the Mid-Atlantic coast, stronger surface winds will develop behind the cold front within the Southeast and the Florida Peninsula. Winds of 10-20 mph appear possible. With cold advection occurring, it is not clear how warm temperatures will rise or how low RH will fall. There does appear to be a zone from southern Georgia into North Florida where 25-35% RH is possible by the afternoon. However, temperatures will still likely be near 40 F and there is a slight chance for precipitation as the front moves through late Friday night. Uncertainty is too high for highlights. ..Wendt.. 01/30/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Fri, 2026-01-30 00:38
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A strong upper trough will continue to pivot through the Southeast on Saturday. A low pressure system will deepen off the East Coast. While fuels will continue to dry in the West where upper level ridging will be present, surface high pressure/cold air should greatly limit fire weather concerns for most areas with drier fuels. ...Southern Georgia into North Florida... With a low pressure system deepening off the Mid-Atlantic coast, stronger surface winds will develop behind the cold front within the Southeast and the Florida Peninsula. Winds of 10-20 mph appear possible. With cold advection occurring, it is not clear how warm temperatures will rise or how low RH will fall. There does appear to be a zone from southern Georgia into North Florida where 25-35% RH is possible by the afternoon. However, temperatures will still likely be near 40 F and there is a slight chance for precipitation as the front moves through late Friday night. Uncertainty is too high for highlights. ..Wendt.. 01/30/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Fri, 2026-01-30 00:36
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be minimal across the CONUS today. Surface high pressure and colder air will filter into areas east of the Divide. Upper-level ridging will be maintained in the West, but lack of stronger wind fields and receptive fuels will limit concerns there. ..Wendt.. 01/30/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Fri, 2026-01-30 00:36
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be minimal across the CONUS today. Surface high pressure and colder air will filter into areas east of the Divide. Upper-level ridging will be maintained in the West, but lack of stronger wind fields and receptive fuels will limit concerns there. ..Wendt.. 01/30/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Fri, 2026-01-30 00:36
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be minimal across the CONUS today. Surface high pressure and colder air will filter into areas east of the Divide. Upper-level ridging will be maintained in the West, but lack of stronger wind fields and receptive fuels will limit concerns there. ..Wendt.. 01/30/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Fri, 2026-01-30 00:36
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be minimal across the CONUS today. Surface high pressure and colder air will filter into areas east of the Divide. Upper-level ridging will be maintained in the West, but lack of stronger wind fields and receptive fuels will limit concerns there. ..Wendt.. 01/30/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Jan 30, 2026 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

Thu, 2026-01-29 19:46
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0643 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026 Valid 300100Z - 301200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...Discussion... The general prevalence of cold/stable conditions will preclude thunderstorm development across the CONUS through tonight. ..Guyer.. 01/30/2026 Read more

SPC Jan 30, 2026 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

Thu, 2026-01-29 19:46
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0643 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026 Valid 300100Z - 301200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...Discussion... The general prevalence of cold/stable conditions will preclude thunderstorm development across the CONUS through tonight. ..Guyer.. 01/30/2026 Read more

SPC - No watches are valid as of Thu Jan 29 22:09:02 UTC 2026

Thu, 2026-01-29 17:08
No watches are valid as of Thu Jan 29 22:09:02 UTC 2026.

SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Thu Jan 29 22:09:02 UTC 2026

Thu, 2026-01-29 17:08
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Jan 29 22:09:02 UTC 2026.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

Thu, 2026-01-29 16:42
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026 Valid 311200Z - 061200Z Multiple mid-level troughs will traverse a broader scale 500 mb northwesterly flow regime across the central and eastern CONUS through the middle of next week, supporting multiple southeastward surges of surface high pressure and an accompanying colder airmass. Widespread, significant wildfire-spread potential should be limited over most locales. Some locally dry and breezy conditions may overspread the Florida Peninsula Days 4-5/Sunday-Monday with the passage of a surface cold front. However, these conditions are expected to primarily support localized wildfire-spread potential, precluding the addition of Critical probabilities at this time. ..Squitieri.. 01/29/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

Thu, 2026-01-29 16:42
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026 Valid 311200Z - 061200Z Multiple mid-level troughs will traverse a broader scale 500 mb northwesterly flow regime across the central and eastern CONUS through the middle of next week, supporting multiple southeastward surges of surface high pressure and an accompanying colder airmass. Widespread, significant wildfire-spread potential should be limited over most locales. Some locally dry and breezy conditions may overspread the Florida Peninsula Days 4-5/Sunday-Monday with the passage of a surface cold front. However, these conditions are expected to primarily support localized wildfire-spread potential, precluding the addition of Critical probabilities at this time. ..Squitieri.. 01/29/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

Thu, 2026-01-29 16:42
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026 Valid 311200Z - 061200Z Multiple mid-level troughs will traverse a broader scale 500 mb northwesterly flow regime across the central and eastern CONUS through the middle of next week, supporting multiple southeastward surges of surface high pressure and an accompanying colder airmass. Widespread, significant wildfire-spread potential should be limited over most locales. Some locally dry and breezy conditions may overspread the Florida Peninsula Days 4-5/Sunday-Monday with the passage of a surface cold front. However, these conditions are expected to primarily support localized wildfire-spread potential, precluding the addition of Critical probabilities at this time. ..Squitieri.. 01/29/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Jan 29, 2026 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

Thu, 2026-01-29 14:33
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026 Valid 292000Z - 301200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made to the outlook. ..Dean.. 01/29/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1000 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... Upper ridging will persist across the western U.S. today, while broadly cyclonic mid/upper flow remains over the central/eastern CONUS. Negligible instability over land is expected to preclude thunderstorms through tonight. Read more

SPC Jan 29, 2026 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

Thu, 2026-01-29 14:33
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026 Valid 292000Z - 301200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made to the outlook. ..Dean.. 01/29/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1000 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... Upper ridging will persist across the western U.S. today, while broadly cyclonic mid/upper flow remains over the central/eastern CONUS. Negligible instability over land is expected to preclude thunderstorms through tonight. Read more

SPC Jan 29, 2026 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

Thu, 2026-01-29 14:33
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026 Valid 292000Z - 301200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made to the outlook. ..Dean.. 01/29/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1000 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... Upper ridging will persist across the western U.S. today, while broadly cyclonic mid/upper flow remains over the central/eastern CONUS. Negligible instability over land is expected to preclude thunderstorms through tonight. Read more

SPC Jan 29, 2026 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

Thu, 2026-01-29 14:33
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026 Valid 292000Z - 301200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made to the outlook. ..Dean.. 01/29/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1000 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... Upper ridging will persist across the western U.S. today, while broadly cyclonic mid/upper flow remains over the central/eastern CONUS. Negligible instability over land is expected to preclude thunderstorms through tonight. Read more