SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1042 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2026 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A series of upper shortwave troughs within broader northwesterly flow aloft will move across the Southeast and from the Rockies into the Plains on Wednesday. Lee cyclogenesis is expected to develop over the central High Plains in response to the ejecting upper shortwave trough, with the low eventually migrating toward OK. Southerly flow will increase across the southern Plains in response, but surface high pressure over TX into the Southeast will prevent modified Gulf moisture from returning northward. As a result, a cold, dry, and stable airmass will remain over much of the CONUS, precluding thunderstorm activity. ..Leitman.. 01/27/2026 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1042 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2026 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A series of upper shortwave troughs within broader northwesterly flow aloft will move across the Southeast and from the Rockies into the Plains on Wednesday. Lee cyclogenesis is expected to develop over the central High Plains in response to the ejecting upper shortwave trough, with the low eventually migrating toward OK. Southerly flow will increase across the southern Plains in response, but surface high pressure over TX into the Southeast will prevent modified Gulf moisture from returning northward. As a result, a cold, dry, and stable airmass will remain over much of the CONUS, precluding thunderstorm activity. ..Leitman.. 01/27/2026 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1006 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2026 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 01/27/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0149 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2026/ ...Synopsis... Dry post-frontal northwesterly flow across the southern Florida Peninsula will bring a period of Elevated fire concerns today. Relative humidity reductions to around 20-25% will overlap with sustained northwesterly flow around 10-15 mph. Fuels in this region are critically dry with ongoing drought conditions. The frontal passage did bring some rainfall across portions of the peninsula but little to no rainfall occurred across the far southern west coast, where the Elevated was maintained with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1006 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2026 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 01/27/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0149 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2026/ ...Synopsis... Dry post-frontal northwesterly flow across the southern Florida Peninsula will bring a period of Elevated fire concerns today. Relative humidity reductions to around 20-25% will overlap with sustained northwesterly flow around 10-15 mph. Fuels in this region are critically dry with ongoing drought conditions. The frontal passage did bring some rainfall across portions of the peninsula but little to no rainfall occurred across the far southern west coast, where the Elevated was maintained with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1006 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2026 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 01/27/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0149 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2026/ ...Synopsis... Dry post-frontal northwesterly flow across the southern Florida Peninsula will bring a period of Elevated fire concerns today. Relative humidity reductions to around 20-25% will overlap with sustained northwesterly flow around 10-15 mph. Fuels in this region are critically dry with ongoing drought conditions. The frontal passage did bring some rainfall across portions of the peninsula but little to no rainfall occurred across the far southern west coast, where the Elevated was maintained with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1006 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2026 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 01/27/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0149 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2026/ ...Synopsis... Dry post-frontal northwesterly flow across the southern Florida Peninsula will bring a period of Elevated fire concerns today. Relative humidity reductions to around 20-25% will overlap with sustained northwesterly flow around 10-15 mph. Fuels in this region are critically dry with ongoing drought conditions. The frontal passage did bring some rainfall across portions of the peninsula but little to no rainfall occurred across the far southern west coast, where the Elevated was maintained with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1006 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2026 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 01/27/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0149 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2026/ ...Synopsis... Dry post-frontal northwesterly flow across the southern Florida Peninsula will bring a period of Elevated fire concerns today. Relative humidity reductions to around 20-25% will overlap with sustained northwesterly flow around 10-15 mph. Fuels in this region are critically dry with ongoing drought conditions. The frontal passage did bring some rainfall across portions of the peninsula but little to no rainfall occurred across the far southern west coast, where the Elevated was maintained with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1000 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2026 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may occur this evening and tonight across parts of northern California and coastal southwest Oregon. Severe thunderstorms are not forecast. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Persistent mid/upper-level troughing over the central/eastern CONUS and cold/offshore low-level trajectories will keep thunderstorm potential very low today, with one possible exception. A mid-level shortwave trough will move quickly eastward over the eastern Pacific today, and eventually overspread the Pacific Northwest this evening/tonight. Cool temperatures aloft (around -24 to -28C at 500 mb) should support modest MUCAPE and the potential for isolated lightning flashes with a loosely organized band of convection that is expected to approach the coast of northern CA and southwest OR mainly after 28/00Z. But with limited low-level moisture and overall weak instability, severe thunderstorms are not forecast. ..Gleason/Kerr.. 01/27/2026 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1000 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2026 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may occur this evening and tonight across parts of northern California and coastal southwest Oregon. Severe thunderstorms are not forecast. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Persistent mid/upper-level troughing over the central/eastern CONUS and cold/offshore low-level trajectories will keep thunderstorm potential very low today, with one possible exception. A mid-level shortwave trough will move quickly eastward over the eastern Pacific today, and eventually overspread the Pacific Northwest this evening/tonight. Cool temperatures aloft (around -24 to -28C at 500 mb) should support modest MUCAPE and the potential for isolated lightning flashes with a loosely organized band of convection that is expected to approach the coast of northern CA and southwest OR mainly after 28/00Z. But with limited low-level moisture and overall weak instability, severe thunderstorms are not forecast. ..Gleason/Kerr.. 01/27/2026 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1000 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2026 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may occur this evening and tonight across parts of northern California and coastal southwest Oregon. Severe thunderstorms are not forecast. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Persistent mid/upper-level troughing over the central/eastern CONUS and cold/offshore low-level trajectories will keep thunderstorm potential very low today, with one possible exception. A mid-level shortwave trough will move quickly eastward over the eastern Pacific today, and eventually overspread the Pacific Northwest this evening/tonight. Cool temperatures aloft (around -24 to -28C at 500 mb) should support modest MUCAPE and the potential for isolated lightning flashes with a loosely organized band of convection that is expected to approach the coast of northern CA and southwest OR mainly after 28/00Z. But with limited low-level moisture and overall weak instability, severe thunderstorms are not forecast. ..Gleason/Kerr.. 01/27/2026 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1000 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2026 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may occur this evening and tonight across parts of northern California and coastal southwest Oregon. Severe thunderstorms are not forecast. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Persistent mid/upper-level troughing over the central/eastern CONUS and cold/offshore low-level trajectories will keep thunderstorm potential very low today, with one possible exception. A mid-level shortwave trough will move quickly eastward over the eastern Pacific today, and eventually overspread the Pacific Northwest this evening/tonight. Cool temperatures aloft (around -24 to -28C at 500 mb) should support modest MUCAPE and the potential for isolated lightning flashes with a loosely organized band of convection that is expected to approach the coast of northern CA and southwest OR mainly after 28/00Z. But with limited low-level moisture and overall weak instability, severe thunderstorms are not forecast. ..Gleason/Kerr.. 01/27/2026 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1000 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2026 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may occur this evening and tonight across parts of northern California and coastal southwest Oregon. Severe thunderstorms are not forecast. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Persistent mid/upper-level troughing over the central/eastern CONUS and cold/offshore low-level trajectories will keep thunderstorm potential very low today, with one possible exception. A mid-level shortwave trough will move quickly eastward over the eastern Pacific today, and eventually overspread the Pacific Northwest this evening/tonight. Cool temperatures aloft (around -24 to -28C at 500 mb) should support modest MUCAPE and the potential for isolated lightning flashes with a loosely organized band of convection that is expected to approach the coast of northern CA and southwest OR mainly after 28/00Z. But with limited low-level moisture and overall weak instability, severe thunderstorms are not forecast. ..Gleason/Kerr.. 01/27/2026 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0642 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2026 Valid 271300Z - 281200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are unlikely today. ...Synopsis... Several shortwave troughs are forecast to progress eastward today within the cyclonic flow aloft covering much of the central and eastern CONUS. At the same time, upper ridging will move eastward across the western CONUS to the Intermountain West and a strong shortwave trough will move across the Pacific Northwest. This evolution will lead to a modestly amplified trough/ridge/trough pattern over the CONUS by early tomorrow. Even with this relatively progressive pattern, the extensive and cold airmass in place over much of the CONUS will promote offshore trajectories and cold/stable sensible weather. Strongest convection today is anticipated with a frontal band attendant to the Pacific Northwest shortwave trough. However, this convection will still be too shallow to produce lightning. ..Mosier/Broyles.. 01/27/2026 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0642 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2026 Valid 271300Z - 281200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are unlikely today. ...Synopsis... Several shortwave troughs are forecast to progress eastward today within the cyclonic flow aloft covering much of the central and eastern CONUS. At the same time, upper ridging will move eastward across the western CONUS to the Intermountain West and a strong shortwave trough will move across the Pacific Northwest. This evolution will lead to a modestly amplified trough/ridge/trough pattern over the CONUS by early tomorrow. Even with this relatively progressive pattern, the extensive and cold airmass in place over much of the CONUS will promote offshore trajectories and cold/stable sensible weather. Strongest convection today is anticipated with a frontal band attendant to the Pacific Northwest shortwave trough. However, this convection will still be too shallow to produce lightning. ..Mosier/Broyles.. 01/27/2026 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0642 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2026 Valid 271300Z - 281200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are unlikely today. ...Synopsis... Several shortwave troughs are forecast to progress eastward today within the cyclonic flow aloft covering much of the central and eastern CONUS. At the same time, upper ridging will move eastward across the western CONUS to the Intermountain West and a strong shortwave trough will move across the Pacific Northwest. This evolution will lead to a modestly amplified trough/ridge/trough pattern over the CONUS by early tomorrow. Even with this relatively progressive pattern, the extensive and cold airmass in place over much of the CONUS will promote offshore trajectories and cold/stable sensible weather. Strongest convection today is anticipated with a frontal band attendant to the Pacific Northwest shortwave trough. However, this convection will still be too shallow to produce lightning. ..Mosier/Broyles.. 01/27/2026 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0642 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2026 Valid 271300Z - 281200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are unlikely today. ...Synopsis... Several shortwave troughs are forecast to progress eastward today within the cyclonic flow aloft covering much of the central and eastern CONUS. At the same time, upper ridging will move eastward across the western CONUS to the Intermountain West and a strong shortwave trough will move across the Pacific Northwest. This evolution will lead to a modestly amplified trough/ridge/trough pattern over the CONUS by early tomorrow. Even with this relatively progressive pattern, the extensive and cold airmass in place over much of the CONUS will promote offshore trajectories and cold/stable sensible weather. Strongest convection today is anticipated with a frontal band attendant to the Pacific Northwest shortwave trough. However, this convection will still be too shallow to produce lightning. ..Mosier/Broyles.. 01/27/2026 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2026 Valid 301200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe weather potential in the extended forecast period is very low. Broad-scale eastern US troughing will strengthen this weekend as a clipper-style trough dives out of Canada an rapidly intensifies along the Eastern Seaboard. A surface low will develop over the eastern Gulf and rapidly deepen over the western Atlantic into early next week. Western US ridging and strong surface high pressure over the central US will keep substantial inland moisture return unlikely for the foreseeable future. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2026 Valid 301200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe weather potential in the extended forecast period is very low. Broad-scale eastern US troughing will strengthen this weekend as a clipper-style trough dives out of Canada an rapidly intensifies along the Eastern Seaboard. A surface low will develop over the eastern Gulf and rapidly deepen over the western Atlantic into early next week. Western US ridging and strong surface high pressure over the central US will keep substantial inland moisture return unlikely for the foreseeable future. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2026 Valid 301200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe weather potential in the extended forecast period is very low. Broad-scale eastern US troughing will strengthen this weekend as a clipper-style trough dives out of Canada an rapidly intensifies along the Eastern Seaboard. A surface low will develop over the eastern Gulf and rapidly deepen over the western Atlantic into early next week. Western US ridging and strong surface high pressure over the central US will keep substantial inland moisture return unlikely for the foreseeable future. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2026 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are unlikely Thursday. ...Synopsis... Broad-scale troughing will continue across the eastern half of the US as the primary upper trough moves off the East Coast into early Friday. At the same time several shortwave perturbations, emanating from southern Canada and the central Rockies respectively, will begin to converge and strengthen over the central US. In the wake of these systems, ridging will build over the West supporting continued strong northwesterly flow aloft. A cold front and Arctic high pressure will move south forcing offshore flow over the CONUS. This will again negate thunderstorm potential through the forecast period. ..Lyons.. 01/27/2026 Read more