Storm Prediction Center
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z Persistent mid/upper-level troughing is expected to remain over the eastern 2/3 of the CONUS through the extended forecast, which will continue to reinforce below average temperatures along/east of the Rockies. Meanwhile, mid/upper-level ridging is forecast to return to the Southwest and Great Basin by Day 4/Tuesday before a series of Pacific troughs come onshore mid-to-late next week and into the weekend. Some wetting rainfall may accompany the troughs - especially across portions of the Pacific NW into northern California. Overall, Critical fire weather concerns are forecast to remain low across much of the CONUS through at least Day 8/Saturday. The one exception might be across portions of the Florida Peninsula, where little antecedent precipitation is forecast along/ahead of a mostly dry cold front that is expected to move through the area Day 3/Monday. A dry and breezy post-frontal regime is forecast to remain over the area through much of the week, which may promote periodic Elevated to locally Critical fire weather conditions, especially as fuels remain receptive owing to ongoing drought conditions. At this time, fire weather conditions appear too brief/spotty to introduce a 40% Critical fire weather probability. ..Elliott.. 01/24/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z Persistent mid/upper-level troughing is expected to remain over the eastern 2/3 of the CONUS through the extended forecast, which will continue to reinforce below average temperatures along/east of the Rockies. Meanwhile, mid/upper-level ridging is forecast to return to the Southwest and Great Basin by Day 4/Tuesday before a series of Pacific troughs come onshore mid-to-late next week and into the weekend. Some wetting rainfall may accompany the troughs - especially across portions of the Pacific NW into northern California. Overall, Critical fire weather concerns are forecast to remain low across much of the CONUS through at least Day 8/Saturday. The one exception might be across portions of the Florida Peninsula, where little antecedent precipitation is forecast along/ahead of a mostly dry cold front that is expected to move through the area Day 3/Monday. A dry and breezy post-frontal regime is forecast to remain over the area through much of the week, which may promote periodic Elevated to locally Critical fire weather conditions, especially as fuels remain receptive owing to ongoing drought conditions. At this time, fire weather conditions appear too brief/spotty to introduce a 40% Critical fire weather probability. ..Elliott.. 01/24/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z Persistent mid/upper-level troughing is expected to remain over the eastern 2/3 of the CONUS through the extended forecast, which will continue to reinforce below average temperatures along/east of the Rockies. Meanwhile, mid/upper-level ridging is forecast to return to the Southwest and Great Basin by Day 4/Tuesday before a series of Pacific troughs come onshore mid-to-late next week and into the weekend. Some wetting rainfall may accompany the troughs - especially across portions of the Pacific NW into northern California. Overall, Critical fire weather concerns are forecast to remain low across much of the CONUS through at least Day 8/Saturday. The one exception might be across portions of the Florida Peninsula, where little antecedent precipitation is forecast along/ahead of a mostly dry cold front that is expected to move through the area Day 3/Monday. A dry and breezy post-frontal regime is forecast to remain over the area through much of the week, which may promote periodic Elevated to locally Critical fire weather conditions, especially as fuels remain receptive owing to ongoing drought conditions. At this time, fire weather conditions appear too brief/spotty to introduce a 40% Critical fire weather probability. ..Elliott.. 01/24/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z Persistent mid/upper-level troughing is expected to remain over the eastern 2/3 of the CONUS through the extended forecast, which will continue to reinforce below average temperatures along/east of the Rockies. Meanwhile, mid/upper-level ridging is forecast to return to the Southwest and Great Basin by Day 4/Tuesday before a series of Pacific troughs come onshore mid-to-late next week and into the weekend. Some wetting rainfall may accompany the troughs - especially across portions of the Pacific NW into northern California. Overall, Critical fire weather concerns are forecast to remain low across much of the CONUS through at least Day 8/Saturday. The one exception might be across portions of the Florida Peninsula, where little antecedent precipitation is forecast along/ahead of a mostly dry cold front that is expected to move through the area Day 3/Monday. A dry and breezy post-frontal regime is forecast to remain over the area through much of the week, which may promote periodic Elevated to locally Critical fire weather conditions, especially as fuels remain receptive owing to ongoing drought conditions. At this time, fire weather conditions appear too brief/spotty to introduce a 40% Critical fire weather probability. ..Elliott.. 01/24/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z Persistent mid/upper-level troughing is expected to remain over the eastern 2/3 of the CONUS through the extended forecast, which will continue to reinforce below average temperatures along/east of the Rockies. Meanwhile, mid/upper-level ridging is forecast to return to the Southwest and Great Basin by Day 4/Tuesday before a series of Pacific troughs come onshore mid-to-late next week and into the weekend. Some wetting rainfall may accompany the troughs - especially across portions of the Pacific NW into northern California. Overall, Critical fire weather concerns are forecast to remain low across much of the CONUS through at least Day 8/Saturday. The one exception might be across portions of the Florida Peninsula, where little antecedent precipitation is forecast along/ahead of a mostly dry cold front that is expected to move through the area Day 3/Monday. A dry and breezy post-frontal regime is forecast to remain over the area through much of the week, which may promote periodic Elevated to locally Critical fire weather conditions, especially as fuels remain receptive owing to ongoing drought conditions. At this time, fire weather conditions appear too brief/spotty to introduce a 40% Critical fire weather probability. ..Elliott.. 01/24/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z Persistent mid/upper-level troughing is expected to remain over the eastern 2/3 of the CONUS through the extended forecast, which will continue to reinforce below average temperatures along/east of the Rockies. Meanwhile, mid/upper-level ridging is forecast to return to the Southwest and Great Basin by Day 4/Tuesday before a series of Pacific troughs come onshore mid-to-late next week and into the weekend. Some wetting rainfall may accompany the troughs - especially across portions of the Pacific NW into northern California. Overall, Critical fire weather concerns are forecast to remain low across much of the CONUS through at least Day 8/Saturday. The one exception might be across portions of the Florida Peninsula, where little antecedent precipitation is forecast along/ahead of a mostly dry cold front that is expected to move through the area Day 3/Monday. A dry and breezy post-frontal regime is forecast to remain over the area through much of the week, which may promote periodic Elevated to locally Critical fire weather conditions, especially as fuels remain receptive owing to ongoing drought conditions. At this time, fire weather conditions appear too brief/spotty to introduce a 40% Critical fire weather probability. ..Elliott.. 01/24/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
SPC Jan 24, 2026 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms appear unlikely Monday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject into the Atlantic on Monday, resulting in widespread surface high pressure and an accompanying polar airmass to overspread the CONUS, diminishing thunderstorm potential. A surface cold front will sweep across the central and southern FL Peninsula Monday morning and afternoon. While a thunderstorm or two cannot be ruled, deep-layer ascent will remain primarily north of the state, which will limit thunderstorm development, warranting the withholding of thunderstorm probabilities this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 01/24/2026 Read more
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms appear unlikely Monday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject into the Atlantic on Monday, resulting in widespread surface high pressure and an accompanying polar airmass to overspread the CONUS, diminishing thunderstorm potential. A surface cold front will sweep across the central and southern FL Peninsula Monday morning and afternoon. While a thunderstorm or two cannot be ruled, deep-layer ascent will remain primarily north of the state, which will limit thunderstorm development, warranting the withholding of thunderstorm probabilities this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 01/24/2026 Read more
SPC Jan 24, 2026 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms appear unlikely Monday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject into the Atlantic on Monday, resulting in widespread surface high pressure and an accompanying polar airmass to overspread the CONUS, diminishing thunderstorm potential. A surface cold front will sweep across the central and southern FL Peninsula Monday morning and afternoon. While a thunderstorm or two cannot be ruled, deep-layer ascent will remain primarily north of the state, which will limit thunderstorm development, warranting the withholding of thunderstorm probabilities this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 01/24/2026 Read more
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms appear unlikely Monday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject into the Atlantic on Monday, resulting in widespread surface high pressure and an accompanying polar airmass to overspread the CONUS, diminishing thunderstorm potential. A surface cold front will sweep across the central and southern FL Peninsula Monday morning and afternoon. While a thunderstorm or two cannot be ruled, deep-layer ascent will remain primarily north of the state, which will limit thunderstorm development, warranting the withholding of thunderstorm probabilities this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 01/24/2026 Read more
SPC Jan 24, 2026 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms appear unlikely Monday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject into the Atlantic on Monday, resulting in widespread surface high pressure and an accompanying polar airmass to overspread the CONUS, diminishing thunderstorm potential. A surface cold front will sweep across the central and southern FL Peninsula Monday morning and afternoon. While a thunderstorm or two cannot be ruled, deep-layer ascent will remain primarily north of the state, which will limit thunderstorm development, warranting the withholding of thunderstorm probabilities this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 01/24/2026 Read more
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms appear unlikely Monday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject into the Atlantic on Monday, resulting in widespread surface high pressure and an accompanying polar airmass to overspread the CONUS, diminishing thunderstorm potential. A surface cold front will sweep across the central and southern FL Peninsula Monday morning and afternoon. While a thunderstorm or two cannot be ruled, deep-layer ascent will remain primarily north of the state, which will limit thunderstorm development, warranting the withholding of thunderstorm probabilities this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 01/24/2026 Read more
SPC Jan 24, 2026 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms appear unlikely Monday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject into the Atlantic on Monday, resulting in widespread surface high pressure and an accompanying polar airmass to overspread the CONUS, diminishing thunderstorm potential. A surface cold front will sweep across the central and southern FL Peninsula Monday morning and afternoon. While a thunderstorm or two cannot be ruled, deep-layer ascent will remain primarily north of the state, which will limit thunderstorm development, warranting the withholding of thunderstorm probabilities this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 01/24/2026 Read more
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms appear unlikely Monday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject into the Atlantic on Monday, resulting in widespread surface high pressure and an accompanying polar airmass to overspread the CONUS, diminishing thunderstorm potential. A surface cold front will sweep across the central and southern FL Peninsula Monday morning and afternoon. While a thunderstorm or two cannot be ruled, deep-layer ascent will remain primarily north of the state, which will limit thunderstorm development, warranting the withholding of thunderstorm probabilities this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 01/24/2026 Read more
SPC MD 44
MD 0044 CONCERNING WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS OF WEST TEXAS INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0044 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1034 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026 Areas affected...Portions of West Texas into central Oklahoma Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation Valid 241634Z - 242030Z SUMMARY...An expanding area of mostly sleet will continue northeast through the afternoon. DISCUSSION...An area of showery precipitation continues to expand from West Texas into southwest Oklahoma this morning. The precipitation coverage is already more expansive than shown by any 12Z guidance and it continues to expand. This area of showers is mostly sleet thus far, but KTLX CC and the 12Z OUN RAOB would imply it will become mostly snow as it approaches I-40 across central Oklahoma. Sleet accumulation of 0.1 to 0.2 inches per hour and snowfall accumulation of 0.5 to 1 inch per hour are possible within the heavier showers/bands from Northwest Texas into central Oklahoma through mid-afternoon. Expect this area of precipitation to weaken as it moves farther northeast during the afternoon. This will likely result in more scattered precipitation coverage across this region for a few hours during the late afternoon before precipitation rapidly expands this evening ahead of the approaching main trough. ..Bentley.. 01/24/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF... LAT...LON 32490119 32610154 33220201 34030195 34640135 35719819 35709619 35059591 33939704 32969906 32480056 32490119 Read more
Mesoscale Discussion 0044 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1034 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026 Areas affected...Portions of West Texas into central Oklahoma Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation Valid 241634Z - 242030Z SUMMARY...An expanding area of mostly sleet will continue northeast through the afternoon. DISCUSSION...An area of showery precipitation continues to expand from West Texas into southwest Oklahoma this morning. The precipitation coverage is already more expansive than shown by any 12Z guidance and it continues to expand. This area of showers is mostly sleet thus far, but KTLX CC and the 12Z OUN RAOB would imply it will become mostly snow as it approaches I-40 across central Oklahoma. Sleet accumulation of 0.1 to 0.2 inches per hour and snowfall accumulation of 0.5 to 1 inch per hour are possible within the heavier showers/bands from Northwest Texas into central Oklahoma through mid-afternoon. Expect this area of precipitation to weaken as it moves farther northeast during the afternoon. This will likely result in more scattered precipitation coverage across this region for a few hours during the late afternoon before precipitation rapidly expands this evening ahead of the approaching main trough. ..Bentley.. 01/24/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF... LAT...LON 32490119 32610154 33220201 34030195 34640135 35719819 35709619 35059591 33939704 32969906 32480056 32490119 Read more
SPC MD 43
MD 0043 CONCERNING WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR NORTHEAST TX...SOUTHERN AR...NORTHERN LA...WESTERN MS
Mesoscale Discussion 0043 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0853 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026 Areas affected...northeast TX...southern AR...northern LA...western MS Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation Valid 241453Z - 242000Z SUMMARY...Moderate to heavy freezing rain and sleet are expected to persist across the Ark-La-Tex to Ark-La-Miss regions into early afternoon. Liquid-equivalent precipitation rates of a tenth to quarter-inch per hour should be common, locally up to a half-inch per hour. DISCUSSION...A swath of moderate to heavy mixed precipitation is ongoing across east TX and the Ark-La-Tex. Surface observations confirm hourly precipitation rates of .10-.25 in/hr are common, up to around .50 in/hr. 12Z guidance is rather consistent in indicating this swath of precip persisting through at least early afternoon, gradually shifting east-northeast amid rather pronounced low-level warm theta-e advection. A classic freezing rain to sleet sounding was sampled at 12Z in SHV. This type of thermodynamic profile should continue to steadily push southward in northern LA. Farther east, the surface freezing line should only drift to nearly stall across western MS into the early afternoon. ..Grams.. 01/24/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV... LAT...LON 31729303 31419426 31579489 31919514 32729473 33429402 33959252 34529126 34619041 33938962 33408970 33009011 32379116 31729303 Read more
Mesoscale Discussion 0043 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0853 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026 Areas affected...northeast TX...southern AR...northern LA...western MS Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation Valid 241453Z - 242000Z SUMMARY...Moderate to heavy freezing rain and sleet are expected to persist across the Ark-La-Tex to Ark-La-Miss regions into early afternoon. Liquid-equivalent precipitation rates of a tenth to quarter-inch per hour should be common, locally up to a half-inch per hour. DISCUSSION...A swath of moderate to heavy mixed precipitation is ongoing across east TX and the Ark-La-Tex. Surface observations confirm hourly precipitation rates of .10-.25 in/hr are common, up to around .50 in/hr. 12Z guidance is rather consistent in indicating this swath of precip persisting through at least early afternoon, gradually shifting east-northeast amid rather pronounced low-level warm theta-e advection. A classic freezing rain to sleet sounding was sampled at 12Z in SHV. This type of thermodynamic profile should continue to steadily push southward in northern LA. Farther east, the surface freezing line should only drift to nearly stall across western MS into the early afternoon. ..Grams.. 01/24/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV... LAT...LON 31729303 31419426 31579489 31919514 32729473 33429402 33959252 34529126 34619041 33938962 33408970 33009011 32379116 31729303 Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low tomorrow (Day 2/Sunday) due to extremely cold temperatures and recent wetting precipitation across much of the CONUS. Please see the previous discussion below for additional information regarding tomorrow's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 01/24/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1145 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026/ ...Synopsis... The pattern will continue to favor a broad trough across the Central US with an arctic air mass across much of the central/eastern CONUS. Widespread precipitation will continue from the central US into the southeast and eastern US. The extremely cold temperatures, snow pack, and recent wetting precipitation will keep fire concerns low for D2/Sunday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low tomorrow (Day 2/Sunday) due to extremely cold temperatures and recent wetting precipitation across much of the CONUS. Please see the previous discussion below for additional information regarding tomorrow's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 01/24/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1145 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026/ ...Synopsis... The pattern will continue to favor a broad trough across the Central US with an arctic air mass across much of the central/eastern CONUS. Widespread precipitation will continue from the central US into the southeast and eastern US. The extremely cold temperatures, snow pack, and recent wetting precipitation will keep fire concerns low for D2/Sunday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low tomorrow (Day 2/Sunday) due to extremely cold temperatures and recent wetting precipitation across much of the CONUS. Please see the previous discussion below for additional information regarding tomorrow's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 01/24/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1145 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026/ ...Synopsis... The pattern will continue to favor a broad trough across the Central US with an arctic air mass across much of the central/eastern CONUS. Widespread precipitation will continue from the central US into the southeast and eastern US. The extremely cold temperatures, snow pack, and recent wetting precipitation will keep fire concerns low for D2/Sunday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low tomorrow (Day 2/Sunday) due to extremely cold temperatures and recent wetting precipitation across much of the CONUS. Please see the previous discussion below for additional information regarding tomorrow's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 01/24/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1145 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026/ ...Synopsis... The pattern will continue to favor a broad trough across the Central US with an arctic air mass across much of the central/eastern CONUS. Widespread precipitation will continue from the central US into the southeast and eastern US. The extremely cold temperatures, snow pack, and recent wetting precipitation will keep fire concerns low for D2/Sunday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low tomorrow (Day 2/Sunday) due to extremely cold temperatures and recent wetting precipitation across much of the CONUS. Please see the previous discussion below for additional information regarding tomorrow's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 01/24/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1145 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026/ ...Synopsis... The pattern will continue to favor a broad trough across the Central US with an arctic air mass across much of the central/eastern CONUS. Widespread precipitation will continue from the central US into the southeast and eastern US. The extremely cold temperatures, snow pack, and recent wetting precipitation will keep fire concerns low for D2/Sunday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low tomorrow (Day 2/Sunday) due to extremely cold temperatures and recent wetting precipitation across much of the CONUS. Please see the previous discussion below for additional information regarding tomorrow's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 01/24/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1145 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026/ ...Synopsis... The pattern will continue to favor a broad trough across the Central US with an arctic air mass across much of the central/eastern CONUS. Widespread precipitation will continue from the central US into the southeast and eastern US. The extremely cold temperatures, snow pack, and recent wetting precipitation will keep fire concerns low for D2/Sunday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low tomorrow (Day 2/Sunday) due to extremely cold temperatures and recent wetting precipitation across much of the CONUS. Please see the previous discussion below for additional information regarding tomorrow's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 01/24/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1145 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026/ ...Synopsis... The pattern will continue to favor a broad trough across the Central US with an arctic air mass across much of the central/eastern CONUS. Widespread precipitation will continue from the central US into the southeast and eastern US. The extremely cold temperatures, snow pack, and recent wetting precipitation will keep fire concerns low for D2/Sunday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low tomorrow (Day 2/Sunday) due to extremely cold temperatures and recent wetting precipitation across much of the CONUS. Please see the previous discussion below for additional information regarding tomorrow's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 01/24/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1145 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026/ ...Synopsis... The pattern will continue to favor a broad trough across the Central US with an arctic air mass across much of the central/eastern CONUS. Widespread precipitation will continue from the central US into the southeast and eastern US. The extremely cold temperatures, snow pack, and recent wetting precipitation will keep fire concerns low for D2/Sunday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
SPC Jan 24, 2026 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF FAR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI INTO SOUTHERN ALABAMA...SOUTHERN GEORGIA...AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the eastern Gulf Coast states Sunday morning and afternoon. Damaging gusts and a few tornadoes are the main concerns. ...Synopsis... A surface low will traverse the Gulf Coast states tomorrow (Sunday) morning and early afternoon, before ejecting northeast toward the Mid Atlantic as a mid-level trough deepens east of the MS River. A constrained warm sector will become established ahead of a progressive surface cold front and south of a warm front over southeast MS into southern AL/GA during the morning/early afternoon hours. Strong flow aloft will overspread this warm sector, resulting in enough overlapping buoyancy and vertical wind shear to support a severe threat along the Gulf Coast. ...Southeast Gulf Coast States... Thunderstorms should be ongoing at the start of the period (12Z Sunday) across parts of LA/MS, and should begin focusing into a linear band along/immediately ahead of a cold front with the development of the surface low. A warm front will be positioned somewhere over the southern third of AL/MS Sunday morning, delineating the warm sector to the south, characterized by mid to upper 60s F surface temperatures and mid 60s F dewpoints. Tropospheric lapse rates should be meager though (i.e. 5.5-6 C/km), resulting in thin buoyancy profiles. However, nearly 100 kt west-southwesterly 500 mb flow atop a 60+ kt southwesterly low-level jet overspreading the warm front (with locally backed winds) will support large, elongated hodographs with at least modest low-level curvature. As such, a high shear/low-CAPE parameter space will precede an intensifying QLCS through Sunday morning/early afternoon across southeast MS into southern AL and GA, where and when the severe threat is expected to be greatest. While strong linear forcing will support a QLCS, minimal MLCINH ahead of the front suggests that a couple of low-topped supercells cannot be ruled out. While MLCAPE may struggle to exceed 500 J/kg over most locales, widespread 60+ kts of effective bulk shear and 400+ m2/s2 0-3 km SRH should support some threat for damaging gusts and at least a few tornadoes. The best chance for tornadoes will be with storms interacting with the warm front, where low-level hodograph curvature will be maximized. If a sustained supercell manages to develop, a strong tornado cannot be ruled out as the storm crosses the warm front. Later Sunday afternoon, the surface low and forcing for ascent will drift away from the warm sector. With a wedge front also expected to stall warm sector recovery from central GA north/northeastward, the severe threat should wane through the day. ..Squitieri.. 01/24/2026 Read more
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF FAR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI INTO SOUTHERN ALABAMA...SOUTHERN GEORGIA...AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the eastern Gulf Coast states Sunday morning and afternoon. Damaging gusts and a few tornadoes are the main concerns. ...Synopsis... A surface low will traverse the Gulf Coast states tomorrow (Sunday) morning and early afternoon, before ejecting northeast toward the Mid Atlantic as a mid-level trough deepens east of the MS River. A constrained warm sector will become established ahead of a progressive surface cold front and south of a warm front over southeast MS into southern AL/GA during the morning/early afternoon hours. Strong flow aloft will overspread this warm sector, resulting in enough overlapping buoyancy and vertical wind shear to support a severe threat along the Gulf Coast. ...Southeast Gulf Coast States... Thunderstorms should be ongoing at the start of the period (12Z Sunday) across parts of LA/MS, and should begin focusing into a linear band along/immediately ahead of a cold front with the development of the surface low. A warm front will be positioned somewhere over the southern third of AL/MS Sunday morning, delineating the warm sector to the south, characterized by mid to upper 60s F surface temperatures and mid 60s F dewpoints. Tropospheric lapse rates should be meager though (i.e. 5.5-6 C/km), resulting in thin buoyancy profiles. However, nearly 100 kt west-southwesterly 500 mb flow atop a 60+ kt southwesterly low-level jet overspreading the warm front (with locally backed winds) will support large, elongated hodographs with at least modest low-level curvature. As such, a high shear/low-CAPE parameter space will precede an intensifying QLCS through Sunday morning/early afternoon across southeast MS into southern AL and GA, where and when the severe threat is expected to be greatest. While strong linear forcing will support a QLCS, minimal MLCINH ahead of the front suggests that a couple of low-topped supercells cannot be ruled out. While MLCAPE may struggle to exceed 500 J/kg over most locales, widespread 60+ kts of effective bulk shear and 400+ m2/s2 0-3 km SRH should support some threat for damaging gusts and at least a few tornadoes. The best chance for tornadoes will be with storms interacting with the warm front, where low-level hodograph curvature will be maximized. If a sustained supercell manages to develop, a strong tornado cannot be ruled out as the storm crosses the warm front. Later Sunday afternoon, the surface low and forcing for ascent will drift away from the warm sector. With a wedge front also expected to stall warm sector recovery from central GA north/northeastward, the severe threat should wane through the day. ..Squitieri.. 01/24/2026 Read more
SPC Jan 24, 2026 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF FAR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI INTO SOUTHERN ALABAMA...SOUTHERN GEORGIA...AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the eastern Gulf Coast states Sunday morning and afternoon. Damaging gusts and a few tornadoes are the main concerns. ...Synopsis... A surface low will traverse the Gulf Coast states tomorrow (Sunday) morning and early afternoon, before ejecting northeast toward the Mid Atlantic as a mid-level trough deepens east of the MS River. A constrained warm sector will become established ahead of a progressive surface cold front and south of a warm front over southeast MS into southern AL/GA during the morning/early afternoon hours. Strong flow aloft will overspread this warm sector, resulting in enough overlapping buoyancy and vertical wind shear to support a severe threat along the Gulf Coast. ...Southeast Gulf Coast States... Thunderstorms should be ongoing at the start of the period (12Z Sunday) across parts of LA/MS, and should begin focusing into a linear band along/immediately ahead of a cold front with the development of the surface low. A warm front will be positioned somewhere over the southern third of AL/MS Sunday morning, delineating the warm sector to the south, characterized by mid to upper 60s F surface temperatures and mid 60s F dewpoints. Tropospheric lapse rates should be meager though (i.e. 5.5-6 C/km), resulting in thin buoyancy profiles. However, nearly 100 kt west-southwesterly 500 mb flow atop a 60+ kt southwesterly low-level jet overspreading the warm front (with locally backed winds) will support large, elongated hodographs with at least modest low-level curvature. As such, a high shear/low-CAPE parameter space will precede an intensifying QLCS through Sunday morning/early afternoon across southeast MS into southern AL and GA, where and when the severe threat is expected to be greatest. While strong linear forcing will support a QLCS, minimal MLCINH ahead of the front suggests that a couple of low-topped supercells cannot be ruled out. While MLCAPE may struggle to exceed 500 J/kg over most locales, widespread 60+ kts of effective bulk shear and 400+ m2/s2 0-3 km SRH should support some threat for damaging gusts and at least a few tornadoes. The best chance for tornadoes will be with storms interacting with the warm front, where low-level hodograph curvature will be maximized. If a sustained supercell manages to develop, a strong tornado cannot be ruled out as the storm crosses the warm front. Later Sunday afternoon, the surface low and forcing for ascent will drift away from the warm sector. With a wedge front also expected to stall warm sector recovery from central GA north/northeastward, the severe threat should wane through the day. ..Squitieri.. 01/24/2026 Read more
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF FAR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI INTO SOUTHERN ALABAMA...SOUTHERN GEORGIA...AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the eastern Gulf Coast states Sunday morning and afternoon. Damaging gusts and a few tornadoes are the main concerns. ...Synopsis... A surface low will traverse the Gulf Coast states tomorrow (Sunday) morning and early afternoon, before ejecting northeast toward the Mid Atlantic as a mid-level trough deepens east of the MS River. A constrained warm sector will become established ahead of a progressive surface cold front and south of a warm front over southeast MS into southern AL/GA during the morning/early afternoon hours. Strong flow aloft will overspread this warm sector, resulting in enough overlapping buoyancy and vertical wind shear to support a severe threat along the Gulf Coast. ...Southeast Gulf Coast States... Thunderstorms should be ongoing at the start of the period (12Z Sunday) across parts of LA/MS, and should begin focusing into a linear band along/immediately ahead of a cold front with the development of the surface low. A warm front will be positioned somewhere over the southern third of AL/MS Sunday morning, delineating the warm sector to the south, characterized by mid to upper 60s F surface temperatures and mid 60s F dewpoints. Tropospheric lapse rates should be meager though (i.e. 5.5-6 C/km), resulting in thin buoyancy profiles. However, nearly 100 kt west-southwesterly 500 mb flow atop a 60+ kt southwesterly low-level jet overspreading the warm front (with locally backed winds) will support large, elongated hodographs with at least modest low-level curvature. As such, a high shear/low-CAPE parameter space will precede an intensifying QLCS through Sunday morning/early afternoon across southeast MS into southern AL and GA, where and when the severe threat is expected to be greatest. While strong linear forcing will support a QLCS, minimal MLCINH ahead of the front suggests that a couple of low-topped supercells cannot be ruled out. While MLCAPE may struggle to exceed 500 J/kg over most locales, widespread 60+ kts of effective bulk shear and 400+ m2/s2 0-3 km SRH should support some threat for damaging gusts and at least a few tornadoes. The best chance for tornadoes will be with storms interacting with the warm front, where low-level hodograph curvature will be maximized. If a sustained supercell manages to develop, a strong tornado cannot be ruled out as the storm crosses the warm front. Later Sunday afternoon, the surface low and forcing for ascent will drift away from the warm sector. With a wedge front also expected to stall warm sector recovery from central GA north/northeastward, the severe threat should wane through the day. ..Squitieri.. 01/24/2026 Read more
SPC Jan 24, 2026 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF FAR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI INTO SOUTHERN ALABAMA...SOUTHERN GEORGIA...AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the eastern Gulf Coast states Sunday morning and afternoon. Damaging gusts and a few tornadoes are the main concerns. ...Synopsis... A surface low will traverse the Gulf Coast states tomorrow (Sunday) morning and early afternoon, before ejecting northeast toward the Mid Atlantic as a mid-level trough deepens east of the MS River. A constrained warm sector will become established ahead of a progressive surface cold front and south of a warm front over southeast MS into southern AL/GA during the morning/early afternoon hours. Strong flow aloft will overspread this warm sector, resulting in enough overlapping buoyancy and vertical wind shear to support a severe threat along the Gulf Coast. ...Southeast Gulf Coast States... Thunderstorms should be ongoing at the start of the period (12Z Sunday) across parts of LA/MS, and should begin focusing into a linear band along/immediately ahead of a cold front with the development of the surface low. A warm front will be positioned somewhere over the southern third of AL/MS Sunday morning, delineating the warm sector to the south, characterized by mid to upper 60s F surface temperatures and mid 60s F dewpoints. Tropospheric lapse rates should be meager though (i.e. 5.5-6 C/km), resulting in thin buoyancy profiles. However, nearly 100 kt west-southwesterly 500 mb flow atop a 60+ kt southwesterly low-level jet overspreading the warm front (with locally backed winds) will support large, elongated hodographs with at least modest low-level curvature. As such, a high shear/low-CAPE parameter space will precede an intensifying QLCS through Sunday morning/early afternoon across southeast MS into southern AL and GA, where and when the severe threat is expected to be greatest. While strong linear forcing will support a QLCS, minimal MLCINH ahead of the front suggests that a couple of low-topped supercells cannot be ruled out. While MLCAPE may struggle to exceed 500 J/kg over most locales, widespread 60+ kts of effective bulk shear and 400+ m2/s2 0-3 km SRH should support some threat for damaging gusts and at least a few tornadoes. The best chance for tornadoes will be with storms interacting with the warm front, where low-level hodograph curvature will be maximized. If a sustained supercell manages to develop, a strong tornado cannot be ruled out as the storm crosses the warm front. Later Sunday afternoon, the surface low and forcing for ascent will drift away from the warm sector. With a wedge front also expected to stall warm sector recovery from central GA north/northeastward, the severe threat should wane through the day. ..Squitieri.. 01/24/2026 Read more
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF FAR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI INTO SOUTHERN ALABAMA...SOUTHERN GEORGIA...AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the eastern Gulf Coast states Sunday morning and afternoon. Damaging gusts and a few tornadoes are the main concerns. ...Synopsis... A surface low will traverse the Gulf Coast states tomorrow (Sunday) morning and early afternoon, before ejecting northeast toward the Mid Atlantic as a mid-level trough deepens east of the MS River. A constrained warm sector will become established ahead of a progressive surface cold front and south of a warm front over southeast MS into southern AL/GA during the morning/early afternoon hours. Strong flow aloft will overspread this warm sector, resulting in enough overlapping buoyancy and vertical wind shear to support a severe threat along the Gulf Coast. ...Southeast Gulf Coast States... Thunderstorms should be ongoing at the start of the period (12Z Sunday) across parts of LA/MS, and should begin focusing into a linear band along/immediately ahead of a cold front with the development of the surface low. A warm front will be positioned somewhere over the southern third of AL/MS Sunday morning, delineating the warm sector to the south, characterized by mid to upper 60s F surface temperatures and mid 60s F dewpoints. Tropospheric lapse rates should be meager though (i.e. 5.5-6 C/km), resulting in thin buoyancy profiles. However, nearly 100 kt west-southwesterly 500 mb flow atop a 60+ kt southwesterly low-level jet overspreading the warm front (with locally backed winds) will support large, elongated hodographs with at least modest low-level curvature. As such, a high shear/low-CAPE parameter space will precede an intensifying QLCS through Sunday morning/early afternoon across southeast MS into southern AL and GA, where and when the severe threat is expected to be greatest. While strong linear forcing will support a QLCS, minimal MLCINH ahead of the front suggests that a couple of low-topped supercells cannot be ruled out. While MLCAPE may struggle to exceed 500 J/kg over most locales, widespread 60+ kts of effective bulk shear and 400+ m2/s2 0-3 km SRH should support some threat for damaging gusts and at least a few tornadoes. The best chance for tornadoes will be with storms interacting with the warm front, where low-level hodograph curvature will be maximized. If a sustained supercell manages to develop, a strong tornado cannot be ruled out as the storm crosses the warm front. Later Sunday afternoon, the surface low and forcing for ascent will drift away from the warm sector. With a wedge front also expected to stall warm sector recovery from central GA north/northeastward, the severe threat should wane through the day. ..Squitieri.. 01/24/2026 Read more
SPC Jan 24, 2026 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF FAR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI INTO SOUTHERN ALABAMA...SOUTHERN GEORGIA...AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the eastern Gulf Coast states Sunday morning and afternoon. Damaging gusts and a few tornadoes are the main concerns. ...Synopsis... A surface low will traverse the Gulf Coast states tomorrow (Sunday) morning and early afternoon, before ejecting northeast toward the Mid Atlantic as a mid-level trough deepens east of the MS River. A constrained warm sector will become established ahead of a progressive surface cold front and south of a warm front over southeast MS into southern AL/GA during the morning/early afternoon hours. Strong flow aloft will overspread this warm sector, resulting in enough overlapping buoyancy and vertical wind shear to support a severe threat along the Gulf Coast. ...Southeast Gulf Coast States... Thunderstorms should be ongoing at the start of the period (12Z Sunday) across parts of LA/MS, and should begin focusing into a linear band along/immediately ahead of a cold front with the development of the surface low. A warm front will be positioned somewhere over the southern third of AL/MS Sunday morning, delineating the warm sector to the south, characterized by mid to upper 60s F surface temperatures and mid 60s F dewpoints. Tropospheric lapse rates should be meager though (i.e. 5.5-6 C/km), resulting in thin buoyancy profiles. However, nearly 100 kt west-southwesterly 500 mb flow atop a 60+ kt southwesterly low-level jet overspreading the warm front (with locally backed winds) will support large, elongated hodographs with at least modest low-level curvature. As such, a high shear/low-CAPE parameter space will precede an intensifying QLCS through Sunday morning/early afternoon across southeast MS into southern AL and GA, where and when the severe threat is expected to be greatest. While strong linear forcing will support a QLCS, minimal MLCINH ahead of the front suggests that a couple of low-topped supercells cannot be ruled out. While MLCAPE may struggle to exceed 500 J/kg over most locales, widespread 60+ kts of effective bulk shear and 400+ m2/s2 0-3 km SRH should support some threat for damaging gusts and at least a few tornadoes. The best chance for tornadoes will be with storms interacting with the warm front, where low-level hodograph curvature will be maximized. If a sustained supercell manages to develop, a strong tornado cannot be ruled out as the storm crosses the warm front. Later Sunday afternoon, the surface low and forcing for ascent will drift away from the warm sector. With a wedge front also expected to stall warm sector recovery from central GA north/northeastward, the severe threat should wane through the day. ..Squitieri.. 01/24/2026 Read more
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF FAR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI INTO SOUTHERN ALABAMA...SOUTHERN GEORGIA...AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the eastern Gulf Coast states Sunday morning and afternoon. Damaging gusts and a few tornadoes are the main concerns. ...Synopsis... A surface low will traverse the Gulf Coast states tomorrow (Sunday) morning and early afternoon, before ejecting northeast toward the Mid Atlantic as a mid-level trough deepens east of the MS River. A constrained warm sector will become established ahead of a progressive surface cold front and south of a warm front over southeast MS into southern AL/GA during the morning/early afternoon hours. Strong flow aloft will overspread this warm sector, resulting in enough overlapping buoyancy and vertical wind shear to support a severe threat along the Gulf Coast. ...Southeast Gulf Coast States... Thunderstorms should be ongoing at the start of the period (12Z Sunday) across parts of LA/MS, and should begin focusing into a linear band along/immediately ahead of a cold front with the development of the surface low. A warm front will be positioned somewhere over the southern third of AL/MS Sunday morning, delineating the warm sector to the south, characterized by mid to upper 60s F surface temperatures and mid 60s F dewpoints. Tropospheric lapse rates should be meager though (i.e. 5.5-6 C/km), resulting in thin buoyancy profiles. However, nearly 100 kt west-southwesterly 500 mb flow atop a 60+ kt southwesterly low-level jet overspreading the warm front (with locally backed winds) will support large, elongated hodographs with at least modest low-level curvature. As such, a high shear/low-CAPE parameter space will precede an intensifying QLCS through Sunday morning/early afternoon across southeast MS into southern AL and GA, where and when the severe threat is expected to be greatest. While strong linear forcing will support a QLCS, minimal MLCINH ahead of the front suggests that a couple of low-topped supercells cannot be ruled out. While MLCAPE may struggle to exceed 500 J/kg over most locales, widespread 60+ kts of effective bulk shear and 400+ m2/s2 0-3 km SRH should support some threat for damaging gusts and at least a few tornadoes. The best chance for tornadoes will be with storms interacting with the warm front, where low-level hodograph curvature will be maximized. If a sustained supercell manages to develop, a strong tornado cannot be ruled out as the storm crosses the warm front. Later Sunday afternoon, the surface low and forcing for ascent will drift away from the warm sector. With a wedge front also expected to stall warm sector recovery from central GA north/northeastward, the severe threat should wane through the day. ..Squitieri.. 01/24/2026 Read more
SPC MD 41
MD 0041 CONCERNING WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR SOUTHERN KENTUCKY...WESTERN AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE...FAR NORTHERN ALABAMA...FAR NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
Mesoscale Discussion 0041 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0554 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026 Areas affected...Southern Kentucky...Western and Middle Tennessee...Far Northern Alabama...Far Northern Mississippi Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation Valid 241154Z - 241800Z SUMMARY...A mix of wintry precipitation is expected this morning from the Mid-South northeastward into Tennessee and southern Kentucky, where snow, sleet and freezing rain will be possible this morning. DISCUSSION...The latest mosaic radar imagery across the southeastern U.S. shows a large area of precipitation from Arkansas extending eastward to the southern Appalachians. This precipitation is being supported by strong lift associated with the right entrance region of an expansive mid-level jet, and by ascent due to a 40 to 50 knot low-level jet over the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. The nose of the low-level jet will move east-northeastward across the Mid-South and Tennessee Valley this morning, contributing to the maintenance of widespread precipitation. RAP forecast soundings across the region have a warm nose from 900 to 700 mb, where temperatures are forecast to gradually warm to near 0 C after daybreak this morning. This will result in a wintry mix of precipitation. Snow may continue in parts of southern Kentucky through midday. However, further south into western and middle Tennessee, a transition to sleet and freezing rain will be likely. In far northern Mississippi and far northern Alabama, the predominant precipitation type will be freezing rain. ..Broyles/Mosier.. 01/24/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...FFC...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...PAH... MEG... LAT...LON 34218753 34058865 34038945 34049004 34139036 34289047 34779050 35858990 36778909 37238805 37328683 37228592 36928511 36488459 35628468 35068514 34588614 34228742 34218753 Read more
Mesoscale Discussion 0041 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0554 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026 Areas affected...Southern Kentucky...Western and Middle Tennessee...Far Northern Alabama...Far Northern Mississippi Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation Valid 241154Z - 241800Z SUMMARY...A mix of wintry precipitation is expected this morning from the Mid-South northeastward into Tennessee and southern Kentucky, where snow, sleet and freezing rain will be possible this morning. DISCUSSION...The latest mosaic radar imagery across the southeastern U.S. shows a large area of precipitation from Arkansas extending eastward to the southern Appalachians. This precipitation is being supported by strong lift associated with the right entrance region of an expansive mid-level jet, and by ascent due to a 40 to 50 knot low-level jet over the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. The nose of the low-level jet will move east-northeastward across the Mid-South and Tennessee Valley this morning, contributing to the maintenance of widespread precipitation. RAP forecast soundings across the region have a warm nose from 900 to 700 mb, where temperatures are forecast to gradually warm to near 0 C after daybreak this morning. This will result in a wintry mix of precipitation. Snow may continue in parts of southern Kentucky through midday. However, further south into western and middle Tennessee, a transition to sleet and freezing rain will be likely. In far northern Mississippi and far northern Alabama, the predominant precipitation type will be freezing rain. ..Broyles/Mosier.. 01/24/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...FFC...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...PAH... MEG... LAT...LON 34218753 34058865 34038945 34049004 34139036 34289047 34779050 35858990 36778909 37238805 37328683 37228592 36928511 36488459 35628468 35068514 34588614 34228742 34218753 Read more
SPC Jan 24, 2026 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0942 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight. ...LA/MS/AL Overnight... The primary surface cold front has pushed off the mid/upper TX Gulf coast, where scattered thunderstorms are ongoing. As the primary upper trough approaches later tonight, increasing southerly low-level winds ahead of the front will transport Gulf moisture northward into parts of southeast LA and southern MS/AL. This will result in some destabilization and increase in low-level/deep-layer vertical shear. Despite a slowly improving environment for strong convection, the main upper forcing is expected to lag to the west of this region until after 12z. Therefore, will maintain less-than-marginal severe probabilities for the overnight period. ..Hart/Bentley.. 01/24/2026 Read more
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0942 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight. ...LA/MS/AL Overnight... The primary surface cold front has pushed off the mid/upper TX Gulf coast, where scattered thunderstorms are ongoing. As the primary upper trough approaches later tonight, increasing southerly low-level winds ahead of the front will transport Gulf moisture northward into parts of southeast LA and southern MS/AL. This will result in some destabilization and increase in low-level/deep-layer vertical shear. Despite a slowly improving environment for strong convection, the main upper forcing is expected to lag to the west of this region until after 12z. Therefore, will maintain less-than-marginal severe probabilities for the overnight period. ..Hart/Bentley.. 01/24/2026 Read more
SPC Jan 24, 2026 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0942 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight. ...LA/MS/AL Overnight... The primary surface cold front has pushed off the mid/upper TX Gulf coast, where scattered thunderstorms are ongoing. As the primary upper trough approaches later tonight, increasing southerly low-level winds ahead of the front will transport Gulf moisture northward into parts of southeast LA and southern MS/AL. This will result in some destabilization and increase in low-level/deep-layer vertical shear. Despite a slowly improving environment for strong convection, the main upper forcing is expected to lag to the west of this region until after 12z. Therefore, will maintain less-than-marginal severe probabilities for the overnight period. ..Hart/Bentley.. 01/24/2026 Read more
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0942 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight. ...LA/MS/AL Overnight... The primary surface cold front has pushed off the mid/upper TX Gulf coast, where scattered thunderstorms are ongoing. As the primary upper trough approaches later tonight, increasing southerly low-level winds ahead of the front will transport Gulf moisture northward into parts of southeast LA and southern MS/AL. This will result in some destabilization and increase in low-level/deep-layer vertical shear. Despite a slowly improving environment for strong convection, the main upper forcing is expected to lag to the west of this region until after 12z. Therefore, will maintain less-than-marginal severe probabilities for the overnight period. ..Hart/Bentley.. 01/24/2026 Read more