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SPC - No watches are valid as of Tue Jan 27 22:43:02 UTC 2026
No watches are valid as of Tue Jan 27 22:43:02 UTC 2026.
SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Tue Jan 27 22:43:02 UTC 2026
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Jan 27 22:43:02 UTC 2026.
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2026 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z A generally broad northwesterly flow regime will remain in place over the CONUS through the middle of next week, with multiple embedded impulses poised to amplify across the northern Plains and approach the Atlantic coastline through the extended period. This particular upper-air pattern will reinforce surface high pressure and an associated sub-freezing airmass across much of the CONUS east of the Rockies Days 3-8 (Thursday through next Tuesday). Fire weather spread conditions should be limited over most locales, with the Florida Peninsula being a possible exception later in the extended period. Around Days 6-7/Sunday-Monday, a cold front should surge southeast across the Florida Peninsula, with dry and windy conditions possible in the post-frontal airmass. At the moment, some disagreement exists regarding how dry/windy these conditions may become between medium-range guidance members. If greater agreement in dry/windy conditions becomes apparent in future runs, 40 percent Critical probabilities may be needed in future outlooks (assuming no appreciable rainfall happens in advance). ..Squitieri.. 01/27/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2026 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z A generally broad northwesterly flow regime will remain in place over the CONUS through the middle of next week, with multiple embedded impulses poised to amplify across the northern Plains and approach the Atlantic coastline through the extended period. This particular upper-air pattern will reinforce surface high pressure and an associated sub-freezing airmass across much of the CONUS east of the Rockies Days 3-8 (Thursday through next Tuesday). Fire weather spread conditions should be limited over most locales, with the Florida Peninsula being a possible exception later in the extended period. Around Days 6-7/Sunday-Monday, a cold front should surge southeast across the Florida Peninsula, with dry and windy conditions possible in the post-frontal airmass. At the moment, some disagreement exists regarding how dry/windy these conditions may become between medium-range guidance members. If greater agreement in dry/windy conditions becomes apparent in future runs, 40 percent Critical probabilities may be needed in future outlooks (assuming no appreciable rainfall happens in advance). ..Squitieri.. 01/27/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2026 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z A generally broad northwesterly flow regime will remain in place over the CONUS through the middle of next week, with multiple embedded impulses poised to amplify across the northern Plains and approach the Atlantic coastline through the extended period. This particular upper-air pattern will reinforce surface high pressure and an associated sub-freezing airmass across much of the CONUS east of the Rockies Days 3-8 (Thursday through next Tuesday). Fire weather spread conditions should be limited over most locales, with the Florida Peninsula being a possible exception later in the extended period. Around Days 6-7/Sunday-Monday, a cold front should surge southeast across the Florida Peninsula, with dry and windy conditions possible in the post-frontal airmass. At the moment, some disagreement exists regarding how dry/windy these conditions may become between medium-range guidance members. If greater agreement in dry/windy conditions becomes apparent in future runs, 40 percent Critical probabilities may be needed in future outlooks (assuming no appreciable rainfall happens in advance). ..Squitieri.. 01/27/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2026 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z A generally broad northwesterly flow regime will remain in place over the CONUS through the middle of next week, with multiple embedded impulses poised to amplify across the northern Plains and approach the Atlantic coastline through the extended period. This particular upper-air pattern will reinforce surface high pressure and an associated sub-freezing airmass across much of the CONUS east of the Rockies Days 3-8 (Thursday through next Tuesday). Fire weather spread conditions should be limited over most locales, with the Florida Peninsula being a possible exception later in the extended period. Around Days 6-7/Sunday-Monday, a cold front should surge southeast across the Florida Peninsula, with dry and windy conditions possible in the post-frontal airmass. At the moment, some disagreement exists regarding how dry/windy these conditions may become between medium-range guidance members. If greater agreement in dry/windy conditions becomes apparent in future runs, 40 percent Critical probabilities may be needed in future outlooks (assuming no appreciable rainfall happens in advance). ..Squitieri.. 01/27/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2026 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z A generally broad northwesterly flow regime will remain in place over the CONUS through the middle of next week, with multiple embedded impulses poised to amplify across the northern Plains and approach the Atlantic coastline through the extended period. This particular upper-air pattern will reinforce surface high pressure and an associated sub-freezing airmass across much of the CONUS east of the Rockies Days 3-8 (Thursday through next Tuesday). Fire weather spread conditions should be limited over most locales, with the Florida Peninsula being a possible exception later in the extended period. Around Days 6-7/Sunday-Monday, a cold front should surge southeast across the Florida Peninsula, with dry and windy conditions possible in the post-frontal airmass. At the moment, some disagreement exists regarding how dry/windy these conditions may become between medium-range guidance members. If greater agreement in dry/windy conditions becomes apparent in future runs, 40 percent Critical probabilities may be needed in future outlooks (assuming no appreciable rainfall happens in advance). ..Squitieri.. 01/27/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2026 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z A generally broad northwesterly flow regime will remain in place over the CONUS through the middle of next week, with multiple embedded impulses poised to amplify across the northern Plains and approach the Atlantic coastline through the extended period. This particular upper-air pattern will reinforce surface high pressure and an associated sub-freezing airmass across much of the CONUS east of the Rockies Days 3-8 (Thursday through next Tuesday). Fire weather spread conditions should be limited over most locales, with the Florida Peninsula being a possible exception later in the extended period. Around Days 6-7/Sunday-Monday, a cold front should surge southeast across the Florida Peninsula, with dry and windy conditions possible in the post-frontal airmass. At the moment, some disagreement exists regarding how dry/windy these conditions may become between medium-range guidance members. If greater agreement in dry/windy conditions becomes apparent in future runs, 40 percent Critical probabilities may be needed in future outlooks (assuming no appreciable rainfall happens in advance). ..Squitieri.. 01/27/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2026 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z A generally broad northwesterly flow regime will remain in place over the CONUS through the middle of next week, with multiple embedded impulses poised to amplify across the northern Plains and approach the Atlantic coastline through the extended period. This particular upper-air pattern will reinforce surface high pressure and an associated sub-freezing airmass across much of the CONUS east of the Rockies Days 3-8 (Thursday through next Tuesday). Fire weather spread conditions should be limited over most locales, with the Florida Peninsula being a possible exception later in the extended period. Around Days 6-7/Sunday-Monday, a cold front should surge southeast across the Florida Peninsula, with dry and windy conditions possible in the post-frontal airmass. At the moment, some disagreement exists regarding how dry/windy these conditions may become between medium-range guidance members. If greater agreement in dry/windy conditions becomes apparent in future runs, 40 percent Critical probabilities may be needed in future outlooks (assuming no appreciable rainfall happens in advance). ..Squitieri.. 01/27/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2026 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z A generally broad northwesterly flow regime will remain in place over the CONUS through the middle of next week, with multiple embedded impulses poised to amplify across the northern Plains and approach the Atlantic coastline through the extended period. This particular upper-air pattern will reinforce surface high pressure and an associated sub-freezing airmass across much of the CONUS east of the Rockies Days 3-8 (Thursday through next Tuesday). Fire weather spread conditions should be limited over most locales, with the Florida Peninsula being a possible exception later in the extended period. Around Days 6-7/Sunday-Monday, a cold front should surge southeast across the Florida Peninsula, with dry and windy conditions possible in the post-frontal airmass. At the moment, some disagreement exists regarding how dry/windy these conditions may become between medium-range guidance members. If greater agreement in dry/windy conditions becomes apparent in future runs, 40 percent Critical probabilities may be needed in future outlooks (assuming no appreciable rainfall happens in advance). ..Squitieri.. 01/27/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
SPC Jan 27, 2026 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2026 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may occur this evening and tonight across parts of northern California and coastal southwest Oregon. Severe thunderstorms are not forecast. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made to the outlook. ..Dean.. 01/27/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1000 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2026/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... Persistent mid/upper-level troughing over the central/eastern CONUS and cold/offshore low-level trajectories will keep thunderstorm potential very low today, with one possible exception. A mid-level shortwave trough will move quickly eastward over the eastern Pacific today, and eventually overspread the Pacific Northwest this evening/tonight. Cool temperatures aloft (around -24 to -28C at 500 mb) should support modest MUCAPE and the potential for isolated lightning flashes with a loosely organized band of convection that is expected to approach the coast of northern CA and southwest OR mainly after 28/00Z. But with limited low-level moisture and overall weak instability, severe thunderstorms are not forecast. Read more
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2026 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may occur this evening and tonight across parts of northern California and coastal southwest Oregon. Severe thunderstorms are not forecast. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made to the outlook. ..Dean.. 01/27/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1000 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2026/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... Persistent mid/upper-level troughing over the central/eastern CONUS and cold/offshore low-level trajectories will keep thunderstorm potential very low today, with one possible exception. A mid-level shortwave trough will move quickly eastward over the eastern Pacific today, and eventually overspread the Pacific Northwest this evening/tonight. Cool temperatures aloft (around -24 to -28C at 500 mb) should support modest MUCAPE and the potential for isolated lightning flashes with a loosely organized band of convection that is expected to approach the coast of northern CA and southwest OR mainly after 28/00Z. But with limited low-level moisture and overall weak instability, severe thunderstorms are not forecast. Read more
SPC Jan 27, 2026 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2026 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may occur this evening and tonight across parts of northern California and coastal southwest Oregon. Severe thunderstorms are not forecast. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made to the outlook. ..Dean.. 01/27/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1000 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2026/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... Persistent mid/upper-level troughing over the central/eastern CONUS and cold/offshore low-level trajectories will keep thunderstorm potential very low today, with one possible exception. A mid-level shortwave trough will move quickly eastward over the eastern Pacific today, and eventually overspread the Pacific Northwest this evening/tonight. Cool temperatures aloft (around -24 to -28C at 500 mb) should support modest MUCAPE and the potential for isolated lightning flashes with a loosely organized band of convection that is expected to approach the coast of northern CA and southwest OR mainly after 28/00Z. But with limited low-level moisture and overall weak instability, severe thunderstorms are not forecast. Read more
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2026 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may occur this evening and tonight across parts of northern California and coastal southwest Oregon. Severe thunderstorms are not forecast. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made to the outlook. ..Dean.. 01/27/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1000 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2026/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... Persistent mid/upper-level troughing over the central/eastern CONUS and cold/offshore low-level trajectories will keep thunderstorm potential very low today, with one possible exception. A mid-level shortwave trough will move quickly eastward over the eastern Pacific today, and eventually overspread the Pacific Northwest this evening/tonight. Cool temperatures aloft (around -24 to -28C at 500 mb) should support modest MUCAPE and the potential for isolated lightning flashes with a loosely organized band of convection that is expected to approach the coast of northern CA and southwest OR mainly after 28/00Z. But with limited low-level moisture and overall weak instability, severe thunderstorms are not forecast. Read more
SPC Jan 27, 2026 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2026 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may occur this evening and tonight across parts of northern California and coastal southwest Oregon. Severe thunderstorms are not forecast. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made to the outlook. ..Dean.. 01/27/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1000 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2026/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... Persistent mid/upper-level troughing over the central/eastern CONUS and cold/offshore low-level trajectories will keep thunderstorm potential very low today, with one possible exception. A mid-level shortwave trough will move quickly eastward over the eastern Pacific today, and eventually overspread the Pacific Northwest this evening/tonight. Cool temperatures aloft (around -24 to -28C at 500 mb) should support modest MUCAPE and the potential for isolated lightning flashes with a loosely organized band of convection that is expected to approach the coast of northern CA and southwest OR mainly after 28/00Z. But with limited low-level moisture and overall weak instability, severe thunderstorms are not forecast. Read more
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2026 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may occur this evening and tonight across parts of northern California and coastal southwest Oregon. Severe thunderstorms are not forecast. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made to the outlook. ..Dean.. 01/27/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1000 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2026/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... Persistent mid/upper-level troughing over the central/eastern CONUS and cold/offshore low-level trajectories will keep thunderstorm potential very low today, with one possible exception. A mid-level shortwave trough will move quickly eastward over the eastern Pacific today, and eventually overspread the Pacific Northwest this evening/tonight. Cool temperatures aloft (around -24 to -28C at 500 mb) should support modest MUCAPE and the potential for isolated lightning flashes with a loosely organized band of convection that is expected to approach the coast of northern CA and southwest OR mainly after 28/00Z. But with limited low-level moisture and overall weak instability, severe thunderstorms are not forecast. Read more
SPC Jan 27, 2026 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2026 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may occur this evening and tonight across parts of northern California and coastal southwest Oregon. Severe thunderstorms are not forecast. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made to the outlook. ..Dean.. 01/27/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1000 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2026/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... Persistent mid/upper-level troughing over the central/eastern CONUS and cold/offshore low-level trajectories will keep thunderstorm potential very low today, with one possible exception. A mid-level shortwave trough will move quickly eastward over the eastern Pacific today, and eventually overspread the Pacific Northwest this evening/tonight. Cool temperatures aloft (around -24 to -28C at 500 mb) should support modest MUCAPE and the potential for isolated lightning flashes with a loosely organized band of convection that is expected to approach the coast of northern CA and southwest OR mainly after 28/00Z. But with limited low-level moisture and overall weak instability, severe thunderstorms are not forecast. Read more
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2026 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may occur this evening and tonight across parts of northern California and coastal southwest Oregon. Severe thunderstorms are not forecast. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made to the outlook. ..Dean.. 01/27/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1000 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2026/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... Persistent mid/upper-level troughing over the central/eastern CONUS and cold/offshore low-level trajectories will keep thunderstorm potential very low today, with one possible exception. A mid-level shortwave trough will move quickly eastward over the eastern Pacific today, and eventually overspread the Pacific Northwest this evening/tonight. Cool temperatures aloft (around -24 to -28C at 500 mb) should support modest MUCAPE and the potential for isolated lightning flashes with a loosely organized band of convection that is expected to approach the coast of northern CA and southwest OR mainly after 28/00Z. But with limited low-level moisture and overall weak instability, severe thunderstorms are not forecast. Read more
SPC Jan 27, 2026 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2026 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may occur this evening and tonight across parts of northern California and coastal southwest Oregon. Severe thunderstorms are not forecast. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made to the outlook. ..Dean.. 01/27/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1000 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2026/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... Persistent mid/upper-level troughing over the central/eastern CONUS and cold/offshore low-level trajectories will keep thunderstorm potential very low today, with one possible exception. A mid-level shortwave trough will move quickly eastward over the eastern Pacific today, and eventually overspread the Pacific Northwest this evening/tonight. Cool temperatures aloft (around -24 to -28C at 500 mb) should support modest MUCAPE and the potential for isolated lightning flashes with a loosely organized band of convection that is expected to approach the coast of northern CA and southwest OR mainly after 28/00Z. But with limited low-level moisture and overall weak instability, severe thunderstorms are not forecast. Read more
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2026 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may occur this evening and tonight across parts of northern California and coastal southwest Oregon. Severe thunderstorms are not forecast. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made to the outlook. ..Dean.. 01/27/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1000 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2026/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... Persistent mid/upper-level troughing over the central/eastern CONUS and cold/offshore low-level trajectories will keep thunderstorm potential very low today, with one possible exception. A mid-level shortwave trough will move quickly eastward over the eastern Pacific today, and eventually overspread the Pacific Northwest this evening/tonight. Cool temperatures aloft (around -24 to -28C at 500 mb) should support modest MUCAPE and the potential for isolated lightning flashes with a loosely organized band of convection that is expected to approach the coast of northern CA and southwest OR mainly after 28/00Z. But with limited low-level moisture and overall weak instability, severe thunderstorms are not forecast. Read more
SPC Jan 27, 2026 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2026 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are unlikely Thursday. ...Synopsis... An upper shortwave trough will migrate from the central/southern Plains to the Southeast on Thursday. As this occurs, surface low pressure will move from OK to the Lower MS Valley. Meanwhile, a trailing cold front will surge southward across OK/TX. Southerly low-level flow ahead of the surface low and cold front will allow for modest Gulf moisture to work northward toward South TX and the lower/middle TX Coast, though more substantial moisture will remain offshore. Overall, thunderstorm chances are expected to be low, with meager instability and warmer 850-700 mb temperatures forecast. Any thunderstorm potential is expected to remain offshore over the western Gulf. ..Leitman.. 01/27/2026 Read more
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2026 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are unlikely Thursday. ...Synopsis... An upper shortwave trough will migrate from the central/southern Plains to the Southeast on Thursday. As this occurs, surface low pressure will move from OK to the Lower MS Valley. Meanwhile, a trailing cold front will surge southward across OK/TX. Southerly low-level flow ahead of the surface low and cold front will allow for modest Gulf moisture to work northward toward South TX and the lower/middle TX Coast, though more substantial moisture will remain offshore. Overall, thunderstorm chances are expected to be low, with meager instability and warmer 850-700 mb temperatures forecast. Any thunderstorm potential is expected to remain offshore over the western Gulf. ..Leitman.. 01/27/2026 Read more
SPC Jan 27, 2026 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2026 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are unlikely Thursday. ...Synopsis... An upper shortwave trough will migrate from the central/southern Plains to the Southeast on Thursday. As this occurs, surface low pressure will move from OK to the Lower MS Valley. Meanwhile, a trailing cold front will surge southward across OK/TX. Southerly low-level flow ahead of the surface low and cold front will allow for modest Gulf moisture to work northward toward South TX and the lower/middle TX Coast, though more substantial moisture will remain offshore. Overall, thunderstorm chances are expected to be low, with meager instability and warmer 850-700 mb temperatures forecast. Any thunderstorm potential is expected to remain offshore over the western Gulf. ..Leitman.. 01/27/2026 Read more
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2026 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are unlikely Thursday. ...Synopsis... An upper shortwave trough will migrate from the central/southern Plains to the Southeast on Thursday. As this occurs, surface low pressure will move from OK to the Lower MS Valley. Meanwhile, a trailing cold front will surge southward across OK/TX. Southerly low-level flow ahead of the surface low and cold front will allow for modest Gulf moisture to work northward toward South TX and the lower/middle TX Coast, though more substantial moisture will remain offshore. Overall, thunderstorm chances are expected to be low, with meager instability and warmer 850-700 mb temperatures forecast. Any thunderstorm potential is expected to remain offshore over the western Gulf. ..Leitman.. 01/27/2026 Read more
SPC Jan 27, 2026 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2026 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are unlikely Thursday. ...Synopsis... An upper shortwave trough will migrate from the central/southern Plains to the Southeast on Thursday. As this occurs, surface low pressure will move from OK to the Lower MS Valley. Meanwhile, a trailing cold front will surge southward across OK/TX. Southerly low-level flow ahead of the surface low and cold front will allow for modest Gulf moisture to work northward toward South TX and the lower/middle TX Coast, though more substantial moisture will remain offshore. Overall, thunderstorm chances are expected to be low, with meager instability and warmer 850-700 mb temperatures forecast. Any thunderstorm potential is expected to remain offshore over the western Gulf. ..Leitman.. 01/27/2026 Read more
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2026 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are unlikely Thursday. ...Synopsis... An upper shortwave trough will migrate from the central/southern Plains to the Southeast on Thursday. As this occurs, surface low pressure will move from OK to the Lower MS Valley. Meanwhile, a trailing cold front will surge southward across OK/TX. Southerly low-level flow ahead of the surface low and cold front will allow for modest Gulf moisture to work northward toward South TX and the lower/middle TX Coast, though more substantial moisture will remain offshore. Overall, thunderstorm chances are expected to be low, with meager instability and warmer 850-700 mb temperatures forecast. Any thunderstorm potential is expected to remain offshore over the western Gulf. ..Leitman.. 01/27/2026 Read more
SPC Jan 27, 2026 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2026 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are unlikely Thursday. ...Synopsis... An upper shortwave trough will migrate from the central/southern Plains to the Southeast on Thursday. As this occurs, surface low pressure will move from OK to the Lower MS Valley. Meanwhile, a trailing cold front will surge southward across OK/TX. Southerly low-level flow ahead of the surface low and cold front will allow for modest Gulf moisture to work northward toward South TX and the lower/middle TX Coast, though more substantial moisture will remain offshore. Overall, thunderstorm chances are expected to be low, with meager instability and warmer 850-700 mb temperatures forecast. Any thunderstorm potential is expected to remain offshore over the western Gulf. ..Leitman.. 01/27/2026 Read more
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2026 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are unlikely Thursday. ...Synopsis... An upper shortwave trough will migrate from the central/southern Plains to the Southeast on Thursday. As this occurs, surface low pressure will move from OK to the Lower MS Valley. Meanwhile, a trailing cold front will surge southward across OK/TX. Southerly low-level flow ahead of the surface low and cold front will allow for modest Gulf moisture to work northward toward South TX and the lower/middle TX Coast, though more substantial moisture will remain offshore. Overall, thunderstorm chances are expected to be low, with meager instability and warmer 850-700 mb temperatures forecast. Any thunderstorm potential is expected to remain offshore over the western Gulf. ..Leitman.. 01/27/2026 Read more
SPC Jan 27, 2026 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2026 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are unlikely Thursday. ...Synopsis... An upper shortwave trough will migrate from the central/southern Plains to the Southeast on Thursday. As this occurs, surface low pressure will move from OK to the Lower MS Valley. Meanwhile, a trailing cold front will surge southward across OK/TX. Southerly low-level flow ahead of the surface low and cold front will allow for modest Gulf moisture to work northward toward South TX and the lower/middle TX Coast, though more substantial moisture will remain offshore. Overall, thunderstorm chances are expected to be low, with meager instability and warmer 850-700 mb temperatures forecast. Any thunderstorm potential is expected to remain offshore over the western Gulf. ..Leitman.. 01/27/2026 Read more
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2026 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are unlikely Thursday. ...Synopsis... An upper shortwave trough will migrate from the central/southern Plains to the Southeast on Thursday. As this occurs, surface low pressure will move from OK to the Lower MS Valley. Meanwhile, a trailing cold front will surge southward across OK/TX. Southerly low-level flow ahead of the surface low and cold front will allow for modest Gulf moisture to work northward toward South TX and the lower/middle TX Coast, though more substantial moisture will remain offshore. Overall, thunderstorm chances are expected to be low, with meager instability and warmer 850-700 mb temperatures forecast. Any thunderstorm potential is expected to remain offshore over the western Gulf. ..Leitman.. 01/27/2026 Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2026 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. Dry, occasionally breezy northwesterly surface flow is still expected across the Florida Peninsula, which may promote brief periods of localized wildfire-spread potential. Still, the surface winds appear too weak for the inclusion of Elevated highlights at this time, though this may change in future outlooks if a stronger surface wind field becomes evident. ..Squitieri.. 01/27/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2026/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low on D2/Wednesday. A cool and dry air mass will remain in place across much of the CONUS, with extensive snow pack reaching from the Southern Plains into portions of the Northeast. Overall, the recent cold and wet pattern has improved status of fuels in many areas. Some dry conditions will continue across southern Florida but winds should be lighter, precluding the need to include any areas. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2026 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. Dry, occasionally breezy northwesterly surface flow is still expected across the Florida Peninsula, which may promote brief periods of localized wildfire-spread potential. Still, the surface winds appear too weak for the inclusion of Elevated highlights at this time, though this may change in future outlooks if a stronger surface wind field becomes evident. ..Squitieri.. 01/27/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2026/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low on D2/Wednesday. A cool and dry air mass will remain in place across much of the CONUS, with extensive snow pack reaching from the Southern Plains into portions of the Northeast. Overall, the recent cold and wet pattern has improved status of fuels in many areas. Some dry conditions will continue across southern Florida but winds should be lighter, precluding the need to include any areas. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2026 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. Dry, occasionally breezy northwesterly surface flow is still expected across the Florida Peninsula, which may promote brief periods of localized wildfire-spread potential. Still, the surface winds appear too weak for the inclusion of Elevated highlights at this time, though this may change in future outlooks if a stronger surface wind field becomes evident. ..Squitieri.. 01/27/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2026/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low on D2/Wednesday. A cool and dry air mass will remain in place across much of the CONUS, with extensive snow pack reaching from the Southern Plains into portions of the Northeast. Overall, the recent cold and wet pattern has improved status of fuels in many areas. Some dry conditions will continue across southern Florida but winds should be lighter, precluding the need to include any areas. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2026 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. Dry, occasionally breezy northwesterly surface flow is still expected across the Florida Peninsula, which may promote brief periods of localized wildfire-spread potential. Still, the surface winds appear too weak for the inclusion of Elevated highlights at this time, though this may change in future outlooks if a stronger surface wind field becomes evident. ..Squitieri.. 01/27/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2026/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low on D2/Wednesday. A cool and dry air mass will remain in place across much of the CONUS, with extensive snow pack reaching from the Southern Plains into portions of the Northeast. Overall, the recent cold and wet pattern has improved status of fuels in many areas. Some dry conditions will continue across southern Florida but winds should be lighter, precluding the need to include any areas. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2026 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. Dry, occasionally breezy northwesterly surface flow is still expected across the Florida Peninsula, which may promote brief periods of localized wildfire-spread potential. Still, the surface winds appear too weak for the inclusion of Elevated highlights at this time, though this may change in future outlooks if a stronger surface wind field becomes evident. ..Squitieri.. 01/27/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2026/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low on D2/Wednesday. A cool and dry air mass will remain in place across much of the CONUS, with extensive snow pack reaching from the Southern Plains into portions of the Northeast. Overall, the recent cold and wet pattern has improved status of fuels in many areas. Some dry conditions will continue across southern Florida but winds should be lighter, precluding the need to include any areas. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2026 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. Dry, occasionally breezy northwesterly surface flow is still expected across the Florida Peninsula, which may promote brief periods of localized wildfire-spread potential. Still, the surface winds appear too weak for the inclusion of Elevated highlights at this time, though this may change in future outlooks if a stronger surface wind field becomes evident. ..Squitieri.. 01/27/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2026/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low on D2/Wednesday. A cool and dry air mass will remain in place across much of the CONUS, with extensive snow pack reaching from the Southern Plains into portions of the Northeast. Overall, the recent cold and wet pattern has improved status of fuels in many areas. Some dry conditions will continue across southern Florida but winds should be lighter, precluding the need to include any areas. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2026 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. Dry, occasionally breezy northwesterly surface flow is still expected across the Florida Peninsula, which may promote brief periods of localized wildfire-spread potential. Still, the surface winds appear too weak for the inclusion of Elevated highlights at this time, though this may change in future outlooks if a stronger surface wind field becomes evident. ..Squitieri.. 01/27/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2026/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low on D2/Wednesday. A cool and dry air mass will remain in place across much of the CONUS, with extensive snow pack reaching from the Southern Plains into portions of the Northeast. Overall, the recent cold and wet pattern has improved status of fuels in many areas. Some dry conditions will continue across southern Florida but winds should be lighter, precluding the need to include any areas. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2026 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. Dry, occasionally breezy northwesterly surface flow is still expected across the Florida Peninsula, which may promote brief periods of localized wildfire-spread potential. Still, the surface winds appear too weak for the inclusion of Elevated highlights at this time, though this may change in future outlooks if a stronger surface wind field becomes evident. ..Squitieri.. 01/27/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2026/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low on D2/Wednesday. A cool and dry air mass will remain in place across much of the CONUS, with extensive snow pack reaching from the Southern Plains into portions of the Northeast. Overall, the recent cold and wet pattern has improved status of fuels in many areas. Some dry conditions will continue across southern Florida but winds should be lighter, precluding the need to include any areas. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
