SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1020 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2026 Valid 281700Z - 291200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 01/28/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0141 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2026/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low today across the CONUS. A cool and dry air mass will remain in place, with extensive snow pack reaching from the Southern Plains into portions of the Northeast. Overall, the recent cold and wet pattern has improved status of fuels in many areas. Some dry conditions will continue across southern Florida but mostly light winds will preclude the need to include any areas. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No watches are valid as of Wed Jan 28 16:22:02 UTC 2026.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Jan 28 16:22:02 UTC 2026.

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1008 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2026 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm probabilities across the U.S. appear less than 10 percent for Thursday through Thursday night. ...Discussion... Models indicate that mid/upper ridging will build inland of the Pacific coast, across the Sierra Nevada through the Canadian Rockies and western Prairies, through this period. As this occurs, a series of short wave perturbations emerging from evolving large-scale upstream troughing are forecast to approach the British Columbia/Pacific Northwest, within deep-layer southwesterly flow. Continuing low/mid-level moisture return is likely to support another round of precipitation with an inland migrating baroclinic wave. However, beneath relatively warm mid/upper levels, saturating thermodynamic profiles appear unlikely to become supportive of thunderstorm development. Meanwhile, an inland migrating short wave trough, preceding the building ridge, is forecast to dig across the Great Basin and Rockies, through the south central Great Plains and lower Mississippi Valley by late Thursday night, as a much more prominent short wave trough pivoting southwest of Hudson Bay progresses across the international border into the Upper Midwest. Beneath a confluent regime in the wake of the latter perturbation, it appears that another cold surface ridge will begin building across the international border through the northern Great Plains and upper Mississippi Valley. In advance of the perturbation emerging from the West, a weak developing lee surface low may be maintained across the Red River and lower Mississippi Valleys, while perhaps another weak wave develops along a remnant preceding frontal zone across the northwestern Gulf Basin. However, models indicate that western Gulf boundary-layer modification and inland moisture return will be quite limited, with little potential for destabilization supportive of an appreciable risk for thunderstorm activity. ..Kerr.. 01/28/2026 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1008 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2026 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm probabilities across the U.S. appear less than 10 percent for Thursday through Thursday night. ...Discussion... Models indicate that mid/upper ridging will build inland of the Pacific coast, across the Sierra Nevada through the Canadian Rockies and western Prairies, through this period. As this occurs, a series of short wave perturbations emerging from evolving large-scale upstream troughing are forecast to approach the British Columbia/Pacific Northwest, within deep-layer southwesterly flow. Continuing low/mid-level moisture return is likely to support another round of precipitation with an inland migrating baroclinic wave. However, beneath relatively warm mid/upper levels, saturating thermodynamic profiles appear unlikely to become supportive of thunderstorm development. Meanwhile, an inland migrating short wave trough, preceding the building ridge, is forecast to dig across the Great Basin and Rockies, through the south central Great Plains and lower Mississippi Valley by late Thursday night, as a much more prominent short wave trough pivoting southwest of Hudson Bay progresses across the international border into the Upper Midwest. Beneath a confluent regime in the wake of the latter perturbation, it appears that another cold surface ridge will begin building across the international border through the northern Great Plains and upper Mississippi Valley. In advance of the perturbation emerging from the West, a weak developing lee surface low may be maintained across the Red River and lower Mississippi Valleys, while perhaps another weak wave develops along a remnant preceding frontal zone across the northwestern Gulf Basin. However, models indicate that western Gulf boundary-layer modification and inland moisture return will be quite limited, with little potential for destabilization supportive of an appreciable risk for thunderstorm activity. ..Kerr.. 01/28/2026 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1000 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2026 Valid 281630Z - 291200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Longwave upper troughing with multiple embedded mid-level perturbations over the eastern CONUS and Canada will maintain surface high pressure and offshore/continental low-level trajectories across the Southeast through tonight. A separate shortwave trough will continue to progress eastward over the Great Basin and northern/central Rockies/Plains today. Negligible instability across all these regions will preclude thunderstorms. ..Gleason.. 01/28/2026 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1000 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2026 Valid 281630Z - 291200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Longwave upper troughing with multiple embedded mid-level perturbations over the eastern CONUS and Canada will maintain surface high pressure and offshore/continental low-level trajectories across the Southeast through tonight. A separate shortwave trough will continue to progress eastward over the Great Basin and northern/central Rockies/Plains today. Negligible instability across all these regions will preclude thunderstorms. ..Gleason.. 01/28/2026 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0636 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2026 Valid 281300Z - 291200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast for today. ...Synopsis... Early-morning satellite imagery shows a pair of shortwave troughs within in the cyclonic flow covering the central and eastern CONUS. The southernmost shortwave is currently progressing southeastward into the Lower MS Valley, with this southeastward motion expected to persist throughout the day. This evolution takes the wave across the north-central and eastern Gulf this afternoon/evening, and across FL by early tomorrow morning. The northern shortwave is moving southeastward over the Upper Great Lakes, and continued southeastward progress will take this wave through the middle/upper OH Valley and off the northern Mid-Atlantic coast tonight. Dry and stable conditions associated with an arctic airmass will be in place ahead of these shortwaves, limiting low-level moisture and precluding thunderstorm development. Another shortwave trough is currently moving eastward across the interior Pacific Northwest and northern Great Basin. This eastward/southeastward progression should continue, taking the wave through the northern/central Rockies and into the central Plains while also dampening the shortwave ridging proceeding it. Precipitation will be possible in association with this shortwave during the day and across the central and northern Rockies. However, little to no instability is forecast, and thunderstorms appear unlikely. ..Mosier/Broyles.. 01/28/2026 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0636 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2026 Valid 281300Z - 291200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast for today. ...Synopsis... Early-morning satellite imagery shows a pair of shortwave troughs within in the cyclonic flow covering the central and eastern CONUS. The southernmost shortwave is currently progressing southeastward into the Lower MS Valley, with this southeastward motion expected to persist throughout the day. This evolution takes the wave across the north-central and eastern Gulf this afternoon/evening, and across FL by early tomorrow morning. The northern shortwave is moving southeastward over the Upper Great Lakes, and continued southeastward progress will take this wave through the middle/upper OH Valley and off the northern Mid-Atlantic coast tonight. Dry and stable conditions associated with an arctic airmass will be in place ahead of these shortwaves, limiting low-level moisture and precluding thunderstorm development. Another shortwave trough is currently moving eastward across the interior Pacific Northwest and northern Great Basin. This eastward/southeastward progression should continue, taking the wave through the northern/central Rockies and into the central Plains while also dampening the shortwave ridging proceeding it. Precipitation will be possible in association with this shortwave during the day and across the central and northern Rockies. However, little to no instability is forecast, and thunderstorms appear unlikely. ..Mosier/Broyles.. 01/28/2026 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0636 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2026 Valid 281300Z - 291200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast for today. ...Synopsis... Early-morning satellite imagery shows a pair of shortwave troughs within in the cyclonic flow covering the central and eastern CONUS. The southernmost shortwave is currently progressing southeastward into the Lower MS Valley, with this southeastward motion expected to persist throughout the day. This evolution takes the wave across the north-central and eastern Gulf this afternoon/evening, and across FL by early tomorrow morning. The northern shortwave is moving southeastward over the Upper Great Lakes, and continued southeastward progress will take this wave through the middle/upper OH Valley and off the northern Mid-Atlantic coast tonight. Dry and stable conditions associated with an arctic airmass will be in place ahead of these shortwaves, limiting low-level moisture and precluding thunderstorm development. Another shortwave trough is currently moving eastward across the interior Pacific Northwest and northern Great Basin. This eastward/southeastward progression should continue, taking the wave through the northern/central Rockies and into the central Plains while also dampening the shortwave ridging proceeding it. Precipitation will be possible in association with this shortwave during the day and across the central and northern Rockies. However, little to no instability is forecast, and thunderstorms appear unlikely. ..Mosier/Broyles.. 01/28/2026 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0636 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2026 Valid 281300Z - 291200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast for today. ...Synopsis... Early-morning satellite imagery shows a pair of shortwave troughs within in the cyclonic flow covering the central and eastern CONUS. The southernmost shortwave is currently progressing southeastward into the Lower MS Valley, with this southeastward motion expected to persist throughout the day. This evolution takes the wave across the north-central and eastern Gulf this afternoon/evening, and across FL by early tomorrow morning. The northern shortwave is moving southeastward over the Upper Great Lakes, and continued southeastward progress will take this wave through the middle/upper OH Valley and off the northern Mid-Atlantic coast tonight. Dry and stable conditions associated with an arctic airmass will be in place ahead of these shortwaves, limiting low-level moisture and precluding thunderstorm development. Another shortwave trough is currently moving eastward across the interior Pacific Northwest and northern Great Basin. This eastward/southeastward progression should continue, taking the wave through the northern/central Rockies and into the central Plains while also dampening the shortwave ridging proceeding it. Precipitation will be possible in association with this shortwave during the day and across the central and northern Rockies. However, little to no instability is forecast, and thunderstorms appear unlikely. ..Mosier/Broyles.. 01/28/2026 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0636 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2026 Valid 281300Z - 291200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast for today. ...Synopsis... Early-morning satellite imagery shows a pair of shortwave troughs within in the cyclonic flow covering the central and eastern CONUS. The southernmost shortwave is currently progressing southeastward into the Lower MS Valley, with this southeastward motion expected to persist throughout the day. This evolution takes the wave across the north-central and eastern Gulf this afternoon/evening, and across FL by early tomorrow morning. The northern shortwave is moving southeastward over the Upper Great Lakes, and continued southeastward progress will take this wave through the middle/upper OH Valley and off the northern Mid-Atlantic coast tonight. Dry and stable conditions associated with an arctic airmass will be in place ahead of these shortwaves, limiting low-level moisture and precluding thunderstorm development. Another shortwave trough is currently moving eastward across the interior Pacific Northwest and northern Great Basin. This eastward/southeastward progression should continue, taking the wave through the northern/central Rockies and into the central Plains while also dampening the shortwave ridging proceeding it. Precipitation will be possible in association with this shortwave during the day and across the central and northern Rockies. However, little to no instability is forecast, and thunderstorms appear unlikely. ..Mosier/Broyles.. 01/28/2026 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2026 Valid 311200Z - 051200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe weather is unlikely through the extended forecast period. A highly amplified mid-level flow pattern over the CONUS will continue through this weekend and into the first part of next week. A prominent upper low will amplify over the East Coast as a strong surface cyclone develops offshore. Ridging over the western US will support strong high pressure and a cold/dry continental air mass over much of the US. This will largely suppress inland moisture transport, outside of far south FL, and subsequent thunderstorm potential for the next several days. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2026 Valid 311200Z - 051200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe weather is unlikely through the extended forecast period. A highly amplified mid-level flow pattern over the CONUS will continue through this weekend and into the first part of next week. A prominent upper low will amplify over the East Coast as a strong surface cyclone develops offshore. Ridging over the western US will support strong high pressure and a cold/dry continental air mass over much of the US. This will largely suppress inland moisture transport, outside of far south FL, and subsequent thunderstorm potential for the next several days. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2026 Valid 311200Z - 051200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe weather is unlikely through the extended forecast period. A highly amplified mid-level flow pattern over the CONUS will continue through this weekend and into the first part of next week. A prominent upper low will amplify over the East Coast as a strong surface cyclone develops offshore. Ridging over the western US will support strong high pressure and a cold/dry continental air mass over much of the US. This will largely suppress inland moisture transport, outside of far south FL, and subsequent thunderstorm potential for the next several days. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2026 Valid 311200Z - 051200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe weather is unlikely through the extended forecast period. A highly amplified mid-level flow pattern over the CONUS will continue through this weekend and into the first part of next week. A prominent upper low will amplify over the East Coast as a strong surface cyclone develops offshore. Ridging over the western US will support strong high pressure and a cold/dry continental air mass over much of the US. This will largely suppress inland moisture transport, outside of far south FL, and subsequent thunderstorm potential for the next several days. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2026 Valid 311200Z - 051200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe weather is unlikely through the extended forecast period. A highly amplified mid-level flow pattern over the CONUS will continue through this weekend and into the first part of next week. A prominent upper low will amplify over the East Coast as a strong surface cyclone develops offshore. Ridging over the western US will support strong high pressure and a cold/dry continental air mass over much of the US. This will largely suppress inland moisture transport, outside of far south FL, and subsequent thunderstorm potential for the next several days. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2026 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms appear unlikely Friday. ...Synopsis... Mid-level flow over the US will continue to amplify as persistent eastern troughing is bolstered by the arrival of a northern stream shortwave from Canada and a deepening southern stream wave over the Gulf Coast. As these systems merge, a strong upper low is excepted to develop across the Southern US deepening a surface low over the eastern Gulf and western Atlantic into early Saturday. At the same time, strong ridging aloft will build over the West supporting increasingly strong northwesterly flow. This will allow a strong cold front and Arctic high pressure to move out of southern Canada reinforcing offshore flow over the lower 48. As such, inland moisture return and the potential for thunderstorms appears unlikely. ..Lyons.. 01/28/2026 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2026 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms appear unlikely Friday. ...Synopsis... Mid-level flow over the US will continue to amplify as persistent eastern troughing is bolstered by the arrival of a northern stream shortwave from Canada and a deepening southern stream wave over the Gulf Coast. As these systems merge, a strong upper low is excepted to develop across the Southern US deepening a surface low over the eastern Gulf and western Atlantic into early Saturday. At the same time, strong ridging aloft will build over the West supporting increasingly strong northwesterly flow. This will allow a strong cold front and Arctic high pressure to move out of southern Canada reinforcing offshore flow over the lower 48. As such, inland moisture return and the potential for thunderstorms appears unlikely. ..Lyons.. 01/28/2026 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2026 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms appear unlikely Friday. ...Synopsis... Mid-level flow over the US will continue to amplify as persistent eastern troughing is bolstered by the arrival of a northern stream shortwave from Canada and a deepening southern stream wave over the Gulf Coast. As these systems merge, a strong upper low is excepted to develop across the Southern US deepening a surface low over the eastern Gulf and western Atlantic into early Saturday. At the same time, strong ridging aloft will build over the West supporting increasingly strong northwesterly flow. This will allow a strong cold front and Arctic high pressure to move out of southern Canada reinforcing offshore flow over the lower 48. As such, inland moisture return and the potential for thunderstorms appears unlikely. ..Lyons.. 01/28/2026 Read more