SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026 Valid 311200Z - 061200Z Multiple mid-level troughs will traverse a broader scale 500 mb northwesterly flow regime across the central and eastern CONUS through the middle of next week, supporting multiple southeastward surges of surface high pressure and an accompanying colder airmass. Widespread, significant wildfire-spread potential should be limited over most locales. Some locally dry and breezy conditions may overspread the Florida Peninsula Days 4-5/Sunday-Monday with the passage of a surface cold front. However, these conditions are expected to primarily support localized wildfire-spread potential, precluding the addition of Critical probabilities at this time. ..Squitieri.. 01/29/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026 Valid 311200Z - 061200Z Multiple mid-level troughs will traverse a broader scale 500 mb northwesterly flow regime across the central and eastern CONUS through the middle of next week, supporting multiple southeastward surges of surface high pressure and an accompanying colder airmass. Widespread, significant wildfire-spread potential should be limited over most locales. Some locally dry and breezy conditions may overspread the Florida Peninsula Days 4-5/Sunday-Monday with the passage of a surface cold front. However, these conditions are expected to primarily support localized wildfire-spread potential, precluding the addition of Critical probabilities at this time. ..Squitieri.. 01/29/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026 Valid 311200Z - 061200Z Multiple mid-level troughs will traverse a broader scale 500 mb northwesterly flow regime across the central and eastern CONUS through the middle of next week, supporting multiple southeastward surges of surface high pressure and an accompanying colder airmass. Widespread, significant wildfire-spread potential should be limited over most locales. Some locally dry and breezy conditions may overspread the Florida Peninsula Days 4-5/Sunday-Monday with the passage of a surface cold front. However, these conditions are expected to primarily support localized wildfire-spread potential, precluding the addition of Critical probabilities at this time. ..Squitieri.. 01/29/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026 Valid 292000Z - 301200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made to the outlook. ..Dean.. 01/29/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1000 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... Upper ridging will persist across the western U.S. today, while broadly cyclonic mid/upper flow remains over the central/eastern CONUS. Negligible instability over land is expected to preclude thunderstorms through tonight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026 Valid 292000Z - 301200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made to the outlook. ..Dean.. 01/29/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1000 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... Upper ridging will persist across the western U.S. today, while broadly cyclonic mid/upper flow remains over the central/eastern CONUS. Negligible instability over land is expected to preclude thunderstorms through tonight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026 Valid 292000Z - 301200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made to the outlook. ..Dean.. 01/29/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1000 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... Upper ridging will persist across the western U.S. today, while broadly cyclonic mid/upper flow remains over the central/eastern CONUS. Negligible instability over land is expected to preclude thunderstorms through tonight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026 Valid 292000Z - 301200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made to the outlook. ..Dean.. 01/29/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1000 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... Upper ridging will persist across the western U.S. today, while broadly cyclonic mid/upper flow remains over the central/eastern CONUS. Negligible instability over land is expected to preclude thunderstorms through tonight. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm probabilities across the U.S. for Saturday through Saturday night appear less than 10 percent. ...Discussion... Models suggest that short waves within split flow across the eastern Pacific into western North America will remain progressive Saturday through Saturday night. This includes a large and vigorous, but slowly weakening, mid-level trough and associated surface cyclone within the primary belt of westerlies, which are forecast to approach coastal areas from Alaska into the Pacific Northwest. While colder mid-level temperatures, potentially supportive of weak boundary-layer destabilization, are forecast to remain offshore, the leading edge of stronger mid-level height falls may begin spreading inland of the Pacific coast during the latter half of the period. It appears an evolving mid-level high in the southern mid-latitudes will be forced inland across southern California into the southern Great Basin, with a trailing cyclonic circulation approaching northern Baja. However, models indicate that amplified downstream mid-level ridging will be maintained through at least this period across the Canadian Rockies and adjacent Prairies into the northern U.S. Intermountain Region and Rockies. Digging short waves to the lee of this ridge will reinforce large-scale troughing east of the Rockies through the U.S. Atlantic Seaboard. However, the most prominent perturbation within this regime is forecast to pivot across and offshore of the southern Atlantic Seaboard. As it does, it appears that a broad offshore surface low will undergo notable deepening. While considerable spread remains evident in association with developments across and offshore of the Atlantic Seaboard, it appears that this may include at least a couple of areas of significant embedded cyclogenesis by late Saturday night. One cyclone may continue to deepen along a frontal zone northeast of the Bahamas, across and north/northeast of the Bermuda vicinity, with higher moisture content generally confined to areas along and southeast of this track. Along a stronger baroclinic zone closer to the Carolina coast, it appears that a much more rapidly deepening and stronger, but similarly compact, cyclone may develop to the east of the coastal waters. However, within a cooler/drier environment, models suggest that any destabilization potentially supportive of thunderstorm development may be confined to areas well offshore, near the Gulf Stream. ..Kerr.. 01/29/2026 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm probabilities across the U.S. for Saturday through Saturday night appear less than 10 percent. ...Discussion... Models suggest that short waves within split flow across the eastern Pacific into western North America will remain progressive Saturday through Saturday night. This includes a large and vigorous, but slowly weakening, mid-level trough and associated surface cyclone within the primary belt of westerlies, which are forecast to approach coastal areas from Alaska into the Pacific Northwest. While colder mid-level temperatures, potentially supportive of weak boundary-layer destabilization, are forecast to remain offshore, the leading edge of stronger mid-level height falls may begin spreading inland of the Pacific coast during the latter half of the period. It appears an evolving mid-level high in the southern mid-latitudes will be forced inland across southern California into the southern Great Basin, with a trailing cyclonic circulation approaching northern Baja. However, models indicate that amplified downstream mid-level ridging will be maintained through at least this period across the Canadian Rockies and adjacent Prairies into the northern U.S. Intermountain Region and Rockies. Digging short waves to the lee of this ridge will reinforce large-scale troughing east of the Rockies through the U.S. Atlantic Seaboard. However, the most prominent perturbation within this regime is forecast to pivot across and offshore of the southern Atlantic Seaboard. As it does, it appears that a broad offshore surface low will undergo notable deepening. While considerable spread remains evident in association with developments across and offshore of the Atlantic Seaboard, it appears that this may include at least a couple of areas of significant embedded cyclogenesis by late Saturday night. One cyclone may continue to deepen along a frontal zone northeast of the Bahamas, across and north/northeast of the Bermuda vicinity, with higher moisture content generally confined to areas along and southeast of this track. Along a stronger baroclinic zone closer to the Carolina coast, it appears that a much more rapidly deepening and stronger, but similarly compact, cyclone may develop to the east of the coastal waters. However, within a cooler/drier environment, models suggest that any destabilization potentially supportive of thunderstorm development may be confined to areas well offshore, near the Gulf Stream. ..Kerr.. 01/29/2026 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm probabilities across the U.S. for Saturday through Saturday night appear less than 10 percent. ...Discussion... Models suggest that short waves within split flow across the eastern Pacific into western North America will remain progressive Saturday through Saturday night. This includes a large and vigorous, but slowly weakening, mid-level trough and associated surface cyclone within the primary belt of westerlies, which are forecast to approach coastal areas from Alaska into the Pacific Northwest. While colder mid-level temperatures, potentially supportive of weak boundary-layer destabilization, are forecast to remain offshore, the leading edge of stronger mid-level height falls may begin spreading inland of the Pacific coast during the latter half of the period. It appears an evolving mid-level high in the southern mid-latitudes will be forced inland across southern California into the southern Great Basin, with a trailing cyclonic circulation approaching northern Baja. However, models indicate that amplified downstream mid-level ridging will be maintained through at least this period across the Canadian Rockies and adjacent Prairies into the northern U.S. Intermountain Region and Rockies. Digging short waves to the lee of this ridge will reinforce large-scale troughing east of the Rockies through the U.S. Atlantic Seaboard. However, the most prominent perturbation within this regime is forecast to pivot across and offshore of the southern Atlantic Seaboard. As it does, it appears that a broad offshore surface low will undergo notable deepening. While considerable spread remains evident in association with developments across and offshore of the Atlantic Seaboard, it appears that this may include at least a couple of areas of significant embedded cyclogenesis by late Saturday night. One cyclone may continue to deepen along a frontal zone northeast of the Bahamas, across and north/northeast of the Bermuda vicinity, with higher moisture content generally confined to areas along and southeast of this track. Along a stronger baroclinic zone closer to the Carolina coast, it appears that a much more rapidly deepening and stronger, but similarly compact, cyclone may develop to the east of the coastal waters. However, within a cooler/drier environment, models suggest that any destabilization potentially supportive of thunderstorm development may be confined to areas well offshore, near the Gulf Stream. ..Kerr.. 01/29/2026 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm probabilities across the U.S. for Saturday through Saturday night appear less than 10 percent. ...Discussion... Models suggest that short waves within split flow across the eastern Pacific into western North America will remain progressive Saturday through Saturday night. This includes a large and vigorous, but slowly weakening, mid-level trough and associated surface cyclone within the primary belt of westerlies, which are forecast to approach coastal areas from Alaska into the Pacific Northwest. While colder mid-level temperatures, potentially supportive of weak boundary-layer destabilization, are forecast to remain offshore, the leading edge of stronger mid-level height falls may begin spreading inland of the Pacific coast during the latter half of the period. It appears an evolving mid-level high in the southern mid-latitudes will be forced inland across southern California into the southern Great Basin, with a trailing cyclonic circulation approaching northern Baja. However, models indicate that amplified downstream mid-level ridging will be maintained through at least this period across the Canadian Rockies and adjacent Prairies into the northern U.S. Intermountain Region and Rockies. Digging short waves to the lee of this ridge will reinforce large-scale troughing east of the Rockies through the U.S. Atlantic Seaboard. However, the most prominent perturbation within this regime is forecast to pivot across and offshore of the southern Atlantic Seaboard. As it does, it appears that a broad offshore surface low will undergo notable deepening. While considerable spread remains evident in association with developments across and offshore of the Atlantic Seaboard, it appears that this may include at least a couple of areas of significant embedded cyclogenesis by late Saturday night. One cyclone may continue to deepen along a frontal zone northeast of the Bahamas, across and north/northeast of the Bermuda vicinity, with higher moisture content generally confined to areas along and southeast of this track. Along a stronger baroclinic zone closer to the Carolina coast, it appears that a much more rapidly deepening and stronger, but similarly compact, cyclone may develop to the east of the coastal waters. However, within a cooler/drier environment, models suggest that any destabilization potentially supportive of thunderstorm development may be confined to areas well offshore, near the Gulf Stream. ..Kerr.. 01/29/2026 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains unchanged. ..Squitieri.. 01/29/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1143 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2026/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be negligible on D2/Friday. A surface high will build in across the central US, further reinforcing the cold arctic air southward into the Plains and Missouri/Mississippi River Valleys. This pattern will favor generally light winds and with the very cold air mass will keep fire concerns low across the CONUS. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains unchanged. ..Squitieri.. 01/29/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1143 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2026/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be negligible on D2/Friday. A surface high will build in across the central US, further reinforcing the cold arctic air southward into the Plains and Missouri/Mississippi River Valleys. This pattern will favor generally light winds and with the very cold air mass will keep fire concerns low across the CONUS. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains unchanged. ..Squitieri.. 01/29/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1143 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2026/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be negligible on D2/Friday. A surface high will build in across the central US, further reinforcing the cold arctic air southward into the Plains and Missouri/Mississippi River Valleys. This pattern will favor generally light winds and with the very cold air mass will keep fire concerns low across the CONUS. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains unchanged. ..Squitieri.. 01/29/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1143 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2026/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be negligible on D2/Friday. A surface high will build in across the central US, further reinforcing the cold arctic air southward into the Plains and Missouri/Mississippi River Valleys. This pattern will favor generally light winds and with the very cold air mass will keep fire concerns low across the CONUS. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1105 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm probabilities across the U.S. for Friday through Friday night appear less than 10 percent. ...Discussion... There appears little change from prior model runs concerning the general mid/upper flow evolution through this period. A lower latitude blocking regime may become a bit more prominent near/offshore of southern California and the Baja California Peninsula, with larger-scale ridging being maintained within the primary belt of westerlies across the Pacific coast through Rockies. This is forecast to include short wave ridging building along the British Columbia coast, in the wake of a short wave trough progressing inland across the Canadian and adjacent northern U.S. Rockies, and downstream of a large upper trough and broad/deep cyclone migrating northeastward across the eastern mid-latitude Pacific. Downstream, several short wave perturbations, including one vigorous digging impulse (emanating from the Hudson Bay vicinity), are forecast to consolidate into amplifying, positively tilted larger-scale troughing encompassing much of the lower Mississippi Valley and Gulf Basin through southern Atlantic Seaboard by late Friday night. It still appears that this will be accompanied by only weak surface frontal wave development along a strengthening low-level baroclinic zone across the northeastern Gulf Basin during the day Friday. There appears to be better consensus among the various models concerning modest cyclogenesis initiating along the same frontal zone offshore of the Carolina coast, and along a remnant surface frontal zone across and northeast of the Bahamas, by late Friday night. ...Pacific Northwest... In the wake of a weak inland advancing frontal precipitation band, models indicate that a modest mid-level cold pool will overspread coastal areas during the day Friday. However, forecast soundings indicate that this will not lead to boundary-layer destabilization supportive of an appreciable risk for convection capable of producing lightning. ...South Atlantic Seaboard... Both NAM and Rapid Refresh forecast soundings suggest that some further boundary-layer moistening is possible near southeastern Florida coastal areas and parts of the Keys, where near-surface flow may maintain an easterly component into the day Friday. It is possible that this may contribute conditionally unstable thermodynamic profiles in the lower- to mid-troposphere, which could become supportive of scattered showers. However, it still appears probable that a substantive warm/dry layer further aloft will suppress thunderstorm development, before the boundary-layer stabilizes in response to cooling/drying, as near-surface winds back to north/northwesterly. Otherwise, through at least this period, it appears that destabilization supportive of thunderstorm development, associated with the developing low offshore of the Carolina coast, will remain focused near the Gulf Stream. ..Kerr.. 01/29/2026 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1105 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm probabilities across the U.S. for Friday through Friday night appear less than 10 percent. ...Discussion... There appears little change from prior model runs concerning the general mid/upper flow evolution through this period. A lower latitude blocking regime may become a bit more prominent near/offshore of southern California and the Baja California Peninsula, with larger-scale ridging being maintained within the primary belt of westerlies across the Pacific coast through Rockies. This is forecast to include short wave ridging building along the British Columbia coast, in the wake of a short wave trough progressing inland across the Canadian and adjacent northern U.S. Rockies, and downstream of a large upper trough and broad/deep cyclone migrating northeastward across the eastern mid-latitude Pacific. Downstream, several short wave perturbations, including one vigorous digging impulse (emanating from the Hudson Bay vicinity), are forecast to consolidate into amplifying, positively tilted larger-scale troughing encompassing much of the lower Mississippi Valley and Gulf Basin through southern Atlantic Seaboard by late Friday night. It still appears that this will be accompanied by only weak surface frontal wave development along a strengthening low-level baroclinic zone across the northeastern Gulf Basin during the day Friday. There appears to be better consensus among the various models concerning modest cyclogenesis initiating along the same frontal zone offshore of the Carolina coast, and along a remnant surface frontal zone across and northeast of the Bahamas, by late Friday night. ...Pacific Northwest... In the wake of a weak inland advancing frontal precipitation band, models indicate that a modest mid-level cold pool will overspread coastal areas during the day Friday. However, forecast soundings indicate that this will not lead to boundary-layer destabilization supportive of an appreciable risk for convection capable of producing lightning. ...South Atlantic Seaboard... Both NAM and Rapid Refresh forecast soundings suggest that some further boundary-layer moistening is possible near southeastern Florida coastal areas and parts of the Keys, where near-surface flow may maintain an easterly component into the day Friday. It is possible that this may contribute conditionally unstable thermodynamic profiles in the lower- to mid-troposphere, which could become supportive of scattered showers. However, it still appears probable that a substantive warm/dry layer further aloft will suppress thunderstorm development, before the boundary-layer stabilizes in response to cooling/drying, as near-surface winds back to north/northwesterly. Otherwise, through at least this period, it appears that destabilization supportive of thunderstorm development, associated with the developing low offshore of the Carolina coast, will remain focused near the Gulf Stream. ..Kerr.. 01/29/2026 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1105 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm probabilities across the U.S. for Friday through Friday night appear less than 10 percent. ...Discussion... There appears little change from prior model runs concerning the general mid/upper flow evolution through this period. A lower latitude blocking regime may become a bit more prominent near/offshore of southern California and the Baja California Peninsula, with larger-scale ridging being maintained within the primary belt of westerlies across the Pacific coast through Rockies. This is forecast to include short wave ridging building along the British Columbia coast, in the wake of a short wave trough progressing inland across the Canadian and adjacent northern U.S. Rockies, and downstream of a large upper trough and broad/deep cyclone migrating northeastward across the eastern mid-latitude Pacific. Downstream, several short wave perturbations, including one vigorous digging impulse (emanating from the Hudson Bay vicinity), are forecast to consolidate into amplifying, positively tilted larger-scale troughing encompassing much of the lower Mississippi Valley and Gulf Basin through southern Atlantic Seaboard by late Friday night. It still appears that this will be accompanied by only weak surface frontal wave development along a strengthening low-level baroclinic zone across the northeastern Gulf Basin during the day Friday. There appears to be better consensus among the various models concerning modest cyclogenesis initiating along the same frontal zone offshore of the Carolina coast, and along a remnant surface frontal zone across and northeast of the Bahamas, by late Friday night. ...Pacific Northwest... In the wake of a weak inland advancing frontal precipitation band, models indicate that a modest mid-level cold pool will overspread coastal areas during the day Friday. However, forecast soundings indicate that this will not lead to boundary-layer destabilization supportive of an appreciable risk for convection capable of producing lightning. ...South Atlantic Seaboard... Both NAM and Rapid Refresh forecast soundings suggest that some further boundary-layer moistening is possible near southeastern Florida coastal areas and parts of the Keys, where near-surface flow may maintain an easterly component into the day Friday. It is possible that this may contribute conditionally unstable thermodynamic profiles in the lower- to mid-troposphere, which could become supportive of scattered showers. However, it still appears probable that a substantive warm/dry layer further aloft will suppress thunderstorm development, before the boundary-layer stabilizes in response to cooling/drying, as near-surface winds back to north/northwesterly. Otherwise, through at least this period, it appears that destabilization supportive of thunderstorm development, associated with the developing low offshore of the Carolina coast, will remain focused near the Gulf Stream. ..Kerr.. 01/29/2026 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1105 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm probabilities across the U.S. for Friday through Friday night appear less than 10 percent. ...Discussion... There appears little change from prior model runs concerning the general mid/upper flow evolution through this period. A lower latitude blocking regime may become a bit more prominent near/offshore of southern California and the Baja California Peninsula, with larger-scale ridging being maintained within the primary belt of westerlies across the Pacific coast through Rockies. This is forecast to include short wave ridging building along the British Columbia coast, in the wake of a short wave trough progressing inland across the Canadian and adjacent northern U.S. Rockies, and downstream of a large upper trough and broad/deep cyclone migrating northeastward across the eastern mid-latitude Pacific. Downstream, several short wave perturbations, including one vigorous digging impulse (emanating from the Hudson Bay vicinity), are forecast to consolidate into amplifying, positively tilted larger-scale troughing encompassing much of the lower Mississippi Valley and Gulf Basin through southern Atlantic Seaboard by late Friday night. It still appears that this will be accompanied by only weak surface frontal wave development along a strengthening low-level baroclinic zone across the northeastern Gulf Basin during the day Friday. There appears to be better consensus among the various models concerning modest cyclogenesis initiating along the same frontal zone offshore of the Carolina coast, and along a remnant surface frontal zone across and northeast of the Bahamas, by late Friday night. ...Pacific Northwest... In the wake of a weak inland advancing frontal precipitation band, models indicate that a modest mid-level cold pool will overspread coastal areas during the day Friday. However, forecast soundings indicate that this will not lead to boundary-layer destabilization supportive of an appreciable risk for convection capable of producing lightning. ...South Atlantic Seaboard... Both NAM and Rapid Refresh forecast soundings suggest that some further boundary-layer moistening is possible near southeastern Florida coastal areas and parts of the Keys, where near-surface flow may maintain an easterly component into the day Friday. It is possible that this may contribute conditionally unstable thermodynamic profiles in the lower- to mid-troposphere, which could become supportive of scattered showers. However, it still appears probable that a substantive warm/dry layer further aloft will suppress thunderstorm development, before the boundary-layer stabilizes in response to cooling/drying, as near-surface winds back to north/northwesterly. Otherwise, through at least this period, it appears that destabilization supportive of thunderstorm development, associated with the developing low offshore of the Carolina coast, will remain focused near the Gulf Stream. ..Kerr.. 01/29/2026 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1105 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm probabilities across the U.S. for Friday through Friday night appear less than 10 percent. ...Discussion... There appears little change from prior model runs concerning the general mid/upper flow evolution through this period. A lower latitude blocking regime may become a bit more prominent near/offshore of southern California and the Baja California Peninsula, with larger-scale ridging being maintained within the primary belt of westerlies across the Pacific coast through Rockies. This is forecast to include short wave ridging building along the British Columbia coast, in the wake of a short wave trough progressing inland across the Canadian and adjacent northern U.S. Rockies, and downstream of a large upper trough and broad/deep cyclone migrating northeastward across the eastern mid-latitude Pacific. Downstream, several short wave perturbations, including one vigorous digging impulse (emanating from the Hudson Bay vicinity), are forecast to consolidate into amplifying, positively tilted larger-scale troughing encompassing much of the lower Mississippi Valley and Gulf Basin through southern Atlantic Seaboard by late Friday night. It still appears that this will be accompanied by only weak surface frontal wave development along a strengthening low-level baroclinic zone across the northeastern Gulf Basin during the day Friday. There appears to be better consensus among the various models concerning modest cyclogenesis initiating along the same frontal zone offshore of the Carolina coast, and along a remnant surface frontal zone across and northeast of the Bahamas, by late Friday night. ...Pacific Northwest... In the wake of a weak inland advancing frontal precipitation band, models indicate that a modest mid-level cold pool will overspread coastal areas during the day Friday. However, forecast soundings indicate that this will not lead to boundary-layer destabilization supportive of an appreciable risk for convection capable of producing lightning. ...South Atlantic Seaboard... Both NAM and Rapid Refresh forecast soundings suggest that some further boundary-layer moistening is possible near southeastern Florida coastal areas and parts of the Keys, where near-surface flow may maintain an easterly component into the day Friday. It is possible that this may contribute conditionally unstable thermodynamic profiles in the lower- to mid-troposphere, which could become supportive of scattered showers. However, it still appears probable that a substantive warm/dry layer further aloft will suppress thunderstorm development, before the boundary-layer stabilizes in response to cooling/drying, as near-surface winds back to north/northwesterly. Otherwise, through at least this period, it appears that destabilization supportive of thunderstorm development, associated with the developing low offshore of the Carolina coast, will remain focused near the Gulf Stream. ..Kerr.. 01/29/2026 Read more