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SPC Jan 24, 2026 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast today. ...Northwest/North Central Gulf Coast... Late-evening water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined upper low off the Baja Peninsula. This feature is forecast to eject across the central Baja around mid day as a 500mb speed max rounds the base of the trough, then ejects into northeast Mexico by 25/06z. In response to this speed max, a weak surface low should develop along the polar front over the northwest Gulf basin, then lift northeast across southeast LA into southern MS late in the period. Latest model guidance suggests modified Gulf air mass will return to the northern Gulf coast ahead of this weak surface low, but forecast soundings depict a boundary layer that most likely will not recover adequately for surface-based convection. While MUCAPE will increase ahead of the front, any thunderstorms that form will likely be at least slightly elevated in nature. Early in the period there is some concern for a few robust thunderstorms near the TX Gulf coast. However, polar front will surge offshore near the start of the day1 and the primary concern for organized storms will be quickly shunted southeast off the coast. At this time the probability for severe thunderstorms appears too low to warrant a MRGL Risk. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 01/24/2026 Read more
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast today. ...Northwest/North Central Gulf Coast... Late-evening water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined upper low off the Baja Peninsula. This feature is forecast to eject across the central Baja around mid day as a 500mb speed max rounds the base of the trough, then ejects into northeast Mexico by 25/06z. In response to this speed max, a weak surface low should develop along the polar front over the northwest Gulf basin, then lift northeast across southeast LA into southern MS late in the period. Latest model guidance suggests modified Gulf air mass will return to the northern Gulf coast ahead of this weak surface low, but forecast soundings depict a boundary layer that most likely will not recover adequately for surface-based convection. While MUCAPE will increase ahead of the front, any thunderstorms that form will likely be at least slightly elevated in nature. Early in the period there is some concern for a few robust thunderstorms near the TX Gulf coast. However, polar front will surge offshore near the start of the day1 and the primary concern for organized storms will be quickly shunted southeast off the coast. At this time the probability for severe thunderstorms appears too low to warrant a MRGL Risk. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 01/24/2026 Read more
SPC MD 35
MD 0035 CONCERNING WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO FAR NORTHERN TEXAS AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0035 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0550 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026 Areas affected...Southern Oklahoma into far northern Texas and southern Arkansas Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation Valid 232350Z - 240445Z SUMMARY...Freezing rain and sleet accumulations are beginning across portions of southern Oklahoma, and are expected to spread east over the next several hours into northern/northeast Texas and southern Arkansas as precipitation increases across the region. Freezing rain rates up to 0.05 inch/hour appear likely along the Red River into southern Arkansas. DISCUSSION...Regional radar mosaics depict two plumes of moderate precipitation with notable bright banding across western TX into southern OK and from central TX into the Texarkana region. These plumes are largely being driven by a combination of deep isentropic upglide over a southward surging frontal zone and a frontogenetic response between 925-850 mb. The forcing mechanisms are expected to gradually shift east through late evening, which will likely result in a prolonged period of precipitation along the Red River into southern AR. At the surface, mPING reports of sleet in Lawton, OK hint that temperatures aloft (especially at around 700 mb) are likely warmer than depicted by recent mesoanalyses and RAP forecast soundings (implying a cold bias aloft). Recent HRRR solutions appear to be better resolving the placement and magnitude of the warm nose aloft (especially when compared with the recent 00z OUN sounding), and suggest that freezing rain should be the predominant precipitation type along/south of the Red River with increasing sleet amounts further north into OK. Although temperatures across southeast OK and southern AR remain above freezing as of 23:45 UTC, temperature falls on the order of 2-3 F/hour are noted in ASOS/OK Mesonet observations, so sub-freezing temperatures are expected within the next 1-3 hours as precipitation overspreads the region. Given these trends and recent model consensus, freezing rain rates up to 0.05 inch/hour appear likely along the Red River and into southern AR through 06 UTC. Sleet should be the primary precipitation type with northward extent into OK with moderate to heavy sleet accumulations probable. Given the weak (0.6 C) warm nose at 739 mb in the recent OUN sounding, a transition zone from sleet to moderate/heavy snow will likely manifest in the coming hours roughly along the I-40 corridor as precipitation spreads northeast. ..Moore.. 01/23/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN... LAT...LON 33339522 33569687 33699763 33839838 34129876 34569891 34949874 35149821 35259743 35199689 35099625 34949540 34699379 34539253 34539201 34409166 34159140 33859121 33369118 33159133 33059183 33069250 33339522 Read more
Mesoscale Discussion 0035 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0550 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026 Areas affected...Southern Oklahoma into far northern Texas and southern Arkansas Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation Valid 232350Z - 240445Z SUMMARY...Freezing rain and sleet accumulations are beginning across portions of southern Oklahoma, and are expected to spread east over the next several hours into northern/northeast Texas and southern Arkansas as precipitation increases across the region. Freezing rain rates up to 0.05 inch/hour appear likely along the Red River into southern Arkansas. DISCUSSION...Regional radar mosaics depict two plumes of moderate precipitation with notable bright banding across western TX into southern OK and from central TX into the Texarkana region. These plumes are largely being driven by a combination of deep isentropic upglide over a southward surging frontal zone and a frontogenetic response between 925-850 mb. The forcing mechanisms are expected to gradually shift east through late evening, which will likely result in a prolonged period of precipitation along the Red River into southern AR. At the surface, mPING reports of sleet in Lawton, OK hint that temperatures aloft (especially at around 700 mb) are likely warmer than depicted by recent mesoanalyses and RAP forecast soundings (implying a cold bias aloft). Recent HRRR solutions appear to be better resolving the placement and magnitude of the warm nose aloft (especially when compared with the recent 00z OUN sounding), and suggest that freezing rain should be the predominant precipitation type along/south of the Red River with increasing sleet amounts further north into OK. Although temperatures across southeast OK and southern AR remain above freezing as of 23:45 UTC, temperature falls on the order of 2-3 F/hour are noted in ASOS/OK Mesonet observations, so sub-freezing temperatures are expected within the next 1-3 hours as precipitation overspreads the region. Given these trends and recent model consensus, freezing rain rates up to 0.05 inch/hour appear likely along the Red River and into southern AR through 06 UTC. Sleet should be the primary precipitation type with northward extent into OK with moderate to heavy sleet accumulations probable. Given the weak (0.6 C) warm nose at 739 mb in the recent OUN sounding, a transition zone from sleet to moderate/heavy snow will likely manifest in the coming hours roughly along the I-40 corridor as precipitation spreads northeast. ..Moore.. 01/23/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN... LAT...LON 33339522 33569687 33699763 33839838 34129876 34569891 34949874 35149821 35259743 35199689 35099625 34949540 34699379 34539253 34539201 34409166 34159140 33859121 33369118 33159133 33059183 33069250 33339522 Read more
SPC MD 36
MD 0036 CONCERNING WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0036 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0630 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026 Areas affected...portions of Southwest Texas Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation Valid 240030Z - 240430Z SUMMARY...A mix of wintry precipitation will continue across portions of southwestern and west-central Texas through the next several hours. DISCUSSION...Surface observations across southwestern Texas into west-central Texas are showing a variety of wintry precipitation types from light snow into the Panhandle to a mix of sleet/freezing rain closer to the I-20 corridor. 00z sounding data from Amarillo shows a weakening warm nose above 850mb, which supports the transition to mostly snow across the Panhandle. RAP forecast soundings along and south of the Red River and along and north of I-20 continue to show a pronounced warm nose around 850-700 mb through much of the evening into tomorrow morning. This warmer air atop sub-freezing surface temperatures will support a predominate precipitation type of mostly light to moderate sleet and occasional light snow north of I-20, with a transition to light freezing rain along and south of I-20 where a deeper layer of warm air aloft resides. ..Thornton.. 01/24/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF... LAT...LON 32430265 33110200 34130103 34630035 34939957 34939903 34159817 33829790 33499772 32869778 32509840 32199934 31920027 31660094 31550168 31730243 32430265 Read more
Mesoscale Discussion 0036 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0630 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026 Areas affected...portions of Southwest Texas Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation Valid 240030Z - 240430Z SUMMARY...A mix of wintry precipitation will continue across portions of southwestern and west-central Texas through the next several hours. DISCUSSION...Surface observations across southwestern Texas into west-central Texas are showing a variety of wintry precipitation types from light snow into the Panhandle to a mix of sleet/freezing rain closer to the I-20 corridor. 00z sounding data from Amarillo shows a weakening warm nose above 850mb, which supports the transition to mostly snow across the Panhandle. RAP forecast soundings along and south of the Red River and along and north of I-20 continue to show a pronounced warm nose around 850-700 mb through much of the evening into tomorrow morning. This warmer air atop sub-freezing surface temperatures will support a predominate precipitation type of mostly light to moderate sleet and occasional light snow north of I-20, with a transition to light freezing rain along and south of I-20 where a deeper layer of warm air aloft resides. ..Thornton.. 01/24/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF... LAT...LON 32430265 33110200 34130103 34630035 34939957 34939903 34159817 33829790 33499772 32869778 32509840 32199934 31920027 31660094 31550168 31730243 32430265 Read more
SPC Jan 24, 2026 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0637 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026 Valid 240100Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered weak thunderstorm activity is possible tonight primarily across the Texas Big Bend region into central Texas. ...01z Update... Broad warm advection regime has established itself across the southern Plains into far west TX. Latest surface data suggests the polar front has surged to a position from northwest of CLL-ATT-OZA. This boundary will advance into the lower Rio Grande Valley region later tonight. Earlier thoughts continue regarding the potential for elevated convection atop the cooler air mass. Model guidance continues to suggest some risk for surface-based convection near the front later tonight. However, low-level convergence is not particularly noteworthy and updraft strength with this activity is expected to remain weak. ..Darrow.. 01/24/2026 Read more
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0637 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026 Valid 240100Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered weak thunderstorm activity is possible tonight primarily across the Texas Big Bend region into central Texas. ...01z Update... Broad warm advection regime has established itself across the southern Plains into far west TX. Latest surface data suggests the polar front has surged to a position from northwest of CLL-ATT-OZA. This boundary will advance into the lower Rio Grande Valley region later tonight. Earlier thoughts continue regarding the potential for elevated convection atop the cooler air mass. Model guidance continues to suggest some risk for surface-based convection near the front later tonight. However, low-level convergence is not particularly noteworthy and updraft strength with this activity is expected to remain weak. ..Darrow.. 01/24/2026 Read more
SPC Jan 24, 2026 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0637 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026 Valid 240100Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered weak thunderstorm activity is possible tonight primarily across the Texas Big Bend region into central Texas. ...01z Update... Broad warm advection regime has established itself across the southern Plains into far west TX. Latest surface data suggests the polar front has surged to a position from northwest of CLL-ATT-OZA. This boundary will advance into the lower Rio Grande Valley region later tonight. Earlier thoughts continue regarding the potential for elevated convection atop the cooler air mass. Model guidance continues to suggest some risk for surface-based convection near the front later tonight. However, low-level convergence is not particularly noteworthy and updraft strength with this activity is expected to remain weak. ..Darrow.. 01/24/2026 Read more
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0637 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026 Valid 240100Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered weak thunderstorm activity is possible tonight primarily across the Texas Big Bend region into central Texas. ...01z Update... Broad warm advection regime has established itself across the southern Plains into far west TX. Latest surface data suggests the polar front has surged to a position from northwest of CLL-ATT-OZA. This boundary will advance into the lower Rio Grande Valley region later tonight. Earlier thoughts continue regarding the potential for elevated convection atop the cooler air mass. Model guidance continues to suggest some risk for surface-based convection near the front later tonight. However, low-level convergence is not particularly noteworthy and updraft strength with this activity is expected to remain weak. ..Darrow.. 01/24/2026 Read more
SPC Jan 24, 2026 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0637 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026 Valid 240100Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered weak thunderstorm activity is possible tonight primarily across the Texas Big Bend region into central Texas. ...01z Update... Broad warm advection regime has established itself across the southern Plains into far west TX. Latest surface data suggests the polar front has surged to a position from northwest of CLL-ATT-OZA. This boundary will advance into the lower Rio Grande Valley region later tonight. Earlier thoughts continue regarding the potential for elevated convection atop the cooler air mass. Model guidance continues to suggest some risk for surface-based convection near the front later tonight. However, low-level convergence is not particularly noteworthy and updraft strength with this activity is expected to remain weak. ..Darrow.. 01/24/2026 Read more
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0637 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026 Valid 240100Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered weak thunderstorm activity is possible tonight primarily across the Texas Big Bend region into central Texas. ...01z Update... Broad warm advection regime has established itself across the southern Plains into far west TX. Latest surface data suggests the polar front has surged to a position from northwest of CLL-ATT-OZA. This boundary will advance into the lower Rio Grande Valley region later tonight. Earlier thoughts continue regarding the potential for elevated convection atop the cooler air mass. Model guidance continues to suggest some risk for surface-based convection near the front later tonight. However, low-level convergence is not particularly noteworthy and updraft strength with this activity is expected to remain weak. ..Darrow.. 01/24/2026 Read more
SPC Jan 24, 2026 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0637 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026 Valid 240100Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered weak thunderstorm activity is possible tonight primarily across the Texas Big Bend region into central Texas. ...01z Update... Broad warm advection regime has established itself across the southern Plains into far west TX. Latest surface data suggests the polar front has surged to a position from northwest of CLL-ATT-OZA. This boundary will advance into the lower Rio Grande Valley region later tonight. Earlier thoughts continue regarding the potential for elevated convection atop the cooler air mass. Model guidance continues to suggest some risk for surface-based convection near the front later tonight. However, low-level convergence is not particularly noteworthy and updraft strength with this activity is expected to remain weak. ..Darrow.. 01/24/2026 Read more
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0637 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026 Valid 240100Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered weak thunderstorm activity is possible tonight primarily across the Texas Big Bend region into central Texas. ...01z Update... Broad warm advection regime has established itself across the southern Plains into far west TX. Latest surface data suggests the polar front has surged to a position from northwest of CLL-ATT-OZA. This boundary will advance into the lower Rio Grande Valley region later tonight. Earlier thoughts continue regarding the potential for elevated convection atop the cooler air mass. Model guidance continues to suggest some risk for surface-based convection near the front later tonight. However, low-level convergence is not particularly noteworthy and updraft strength with this activity is expected to remain weak. ..Darrow.. 01/24/2026 Read more
SPC - No watches are valid as of Fri Jan 23 22:03:02 UTC 2026
No watches are valid as of Fri Jan 23 22:03:02 UTC 2026.
SPC MD 34
MD 0034 CONCERNING WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR WEST TO NORTH TX AND SOUTHERN OK
Mesoscale Discussion 0034 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026 Areas affected...west to north TX and southern OK Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation Valid 231855Z - 240000Z SUMMARY...A plume of mixed precipitation is expected to substantially increase into early evening from west to north Texas into southern Oklahoma. Sleet should be the primary precipitation type, with the freezing rain line gradually shifting south. Initial rates should generally be light, before increasing tonight. DISCUSSION...Initial swath of precipitation has been increasing over the past few hours across the South Plains to central TX. The northern extent of this precip shield is about to overspread a southward-moving nose of sub-freezing surface temperatures across the Low Rolling Plains, centered on the surface ridge over northwest TX. This should initially impact areas near to southeast of LBB, but will increase greatly in areal coverage by late afternoon into early evening. Light freezing rain should be anticipated where surface temps remain in the 29-32 F range. Sleet should be the overarching PTYPE through 00Z as low-level warm theta-e advection in the 850-700 mb layer maintains an above-freezing warm nose atop the increasingly cold boundary layer. Pervasive surface dry advection will slow the northern extent of winter precip reaching the surface, especially in OK, through early evening. This should also aid in yielding generally light liquid-equivalent rates until tonight. ..Grams.. 01/23/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...ABQ... LAT...LON 32100095 32060243 32580359 33040380 33540343 34530026 34909770 34659610 34229569 33839585 33669688 32479983 32100095 Read more
Mesoscale Discussion 0034 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026 Areas affected...west to north TX and southern OK Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation Valid 231855Z - 240000Z SUMMARY...A plume of mixed precipitation is expected to substantially increase into early evening from west to north Texas into southern Oklahoma. Sleet should be the primary precipitation type, with the freezing rain line gradually shifting south. Initial rates should generally be light, before increasing tonight. DISCUSSION...Initial swath of precipitation has been increasing over the past few hours across the South Plains to central TX. The northern extent of this precip shield is about to overspread a southward-moving nose of sub-freezing surface temperatures across the Low Rolling Plains, centered on the surface ridge over northwest TX. This should initially impact areas near to southeast of LBB, but will increase greatly in areal coverage by late afternoon into early evening. Light freezing rain should be anticipated where surface temps remain in the 29-32 F range. Sleet should be the overarching PTYPE through 00Z as low-level warm theta-e advection in the 850-700 mb layer maintains an above-freezing warm nose atop the increasingly cold boundary layer. Pervasive surface dry advection will slow the northern extent of winter precip reaching the surface, especially in OK, through early evening. This should also aid in yielding generally light liquid-equivalent rates until tonight. ..Grams.. 01/23/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...ABQ... LAT...LON 32100095 32060243 32580359 33040380 33540343 34530026 34909770 34659610 34229569 33839585 33669688 32479983 32100095 Read more
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026 Valid 251200Z - 311200Z ...Synopsis... A long-wave trough will continue to translate eastward over much of the CONUS by D3/Sunday. An associated modified Arctic air-mass will encompass most of the central and eastern CONUS into D4/Monday, while precipitation shifts into the South, Mid Atlantic, and New England regions. Additional upper troughs are expected to dive southward out of central Canada throughout next week, with reinforcing cold air masses at the surface maintaining below average temperatures from the Rockies eastward. Further west, however, upper ridging is anticipated to briefly return to the Southwest and Great Basin before another Pacific trough moves onshore mid to late next week. Some precipitation may accompany this feature from CA northward into the Pacific Northwest. Generally, this pattern will keep fire weather concerns low to very low throughout the extended forecast especially across the eastern 2/3 of the CONUS. ..Barnes.. 01/23/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026 Valid 251200Z - 311200Z ...Synopsis... A long-wave trough will continue to translate eastward over much of the CONUS by D3/Sunday. An associated modified Arctic air-mass will encompass most of the central and eastern CONUS into D4/Monday, while precipitation shifts into the South, Mid Atlantic, and New England regions. Additional upper troughs are expected to dive southward out of central Canada throughout next week, with reinforcing cold air masses at the surface maintaining below average temperatures from the Rockies eastward. Further west, however, upper ridging is anticipated to briefly return to the Southwest and Great Basin before another Pacific trough moves onshore mid to late next week. Some precipitation may accompany this feature from CA northward into the Pacific Northwest. Generally, this pattern will keep fire weather concerns low to very low throughout the extended forecast especially across the eastern 2/3 of the CONUS. ..Barnes.. 01/23/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026 Valid 251200Z - 311200Z ...Synopsis... A long-wave trough will continue to translate eastward over much of the CONUS by D3/Sunday. An associated modified Arctic air-mass will encompass most of the central and eastern CONUS into D4/Monday, while precipitation shifts into the South, Mid Atlantic, and New England regions. Additional upper troughs are expected to dive southward out of central Canada throughout next week, with reinforcing cold air masses at the surface maintaining below average temperatures from the Rockies eastward. Further west, however, upper ridging is anticipated to briefly return to the Southwest and Great Basin before another Pacific trough moves onshore mid to late next week. Some precipitation may accompany this feature from CA northward into the Pacific Northwest. Generally, this pattern will keep fire weather concerns low to very low throughout the extended forecast especially across the eastern 2/3 of the CONUS. ..Barnes.. 01/23/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026 Valid 251200Z - 311200Z ...Synopsis... A long-wave trough will continue to translate eastward over much of the CONUS by D3/Sunday. An associated modified Arctic air-mass will encompass most of the central and eastern CONUS into D4/Monday, while precipitation shifts into the South, Mid Atlantic, and New England regions. Additional upper troughs are expected to dive southward out of central Canada throughout next week, with reinforcing cold air masses at the surface maintaining below average temperatures from the Rockies eastward. Further west, however, upper ridging is anticipated to briefly return to the Southwest and Great Basin before another Pacific trough moves onshore mid to late next week. Some precipitation may accompany this feature from CA northward into the Pacific Northwest. Generally, this pattern will keep fire weather concerns low to very low throughout the extended forecast especially across the eastern 2/3 of the CONUS. ..Barnes.. 01/23/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026 Valid 251200Z - 311200Z ...Synopsis... A long-wave trough will continue to translate eastward over much of the CONUS by D3/Sunday. An associated modified Arctic air-mass will encompass most of the central and eastern CONUS into D4/Monday, while precipitation shifts into the South, Mid Atlantic, and New England regions. Additional upper troughs are expected to dive southward out of central Canada throughout next week, with reinforcing cold air masses at the surface maintaining below average temperatures from the Rockies eastward. Further west, however, upper ridging is anticipated to briefly return to the Southwest and Great Basin before another Pacific trough moves onshore mid to late next week. Some precipitation may accompany this feature from CA northward into the Pacific Northwest. Generally, this pattern will keep fire weather concerns low to very low throughout the extended forecast especially across the eastern 2/3 of the CONUS. ..Barnes.. 01/23/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026 Valid 251200Z - 311200Z ...Synopsis... A long-wave trough will continue to translate eastward over much of the CONUS by D3/Sunday. An associated modified Arctic air-mass will encompass most of the central and eastern CONUS into D4/Monday, while precipitation shifts into the South, Mid Atlantic, and New England regions. Additional upper troughs are expected to dive southward out of central Canada throughout next week, with reinforcing cold air masses at the surface maintaining below average temperatures from the Rockies eastward. Further west, however, upper ridging is anticipated to briefly return to the Southwest and Great Basin before another Pacific trough moves onshore mid to late next week. Some precipitation may accompany this feature from CA northward into the Pacific Northwest. Generally, this pattern will keep fire weather concerns low to very low throughout the extended forecast especially across the eastern 2/3 of the CONUS. ..Barnes.. 01/23/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Activity: Measure snowfall at home
Activity: Measure snowfall at home
Track snowfall totals this winter! ???? ??
Create your own snow-measuring stick with our JPSS #STEM activity and measure the snowfall right in your backyard.
Learn more: https://www.nesdis.noaa.gov/.../jps.../activity-measure-snow (Image credit: Joint Polar Satellite System - JPSS)
This activity guides you on how to make a snow stick to measure snow with common materials in your home.
Education 0 OffThe ARRL Solar Update
Solar activity reached moderate levels with two M-class flares
earlier this week.
The first flares occurred on January 21 in regions 4345 and 4349.
Region 4345 continued to show development, as well as region 4342.
Region 4341 was a main contributor to the C-level activity of the
day, including a larger C-class flare on January 21. No
Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph
im...
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Update... No changes were required for tomorrow's forecast. Please see the previous discussion below for details. ..Barnes.. 01/23/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0142 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026/ ...Synopsis... Broad troughing across the central US will continue to bring several rounds of precipitation from the Plains into portions of the Eastern US on Saturday. In addition, a cold arctic air mass will be in place across much of the CONUS. Fire concerns will remain minimal given widespread cold and wet conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Update... No changes were required for tomorrow's forecast. Please see the previous discussion below for details. ..Barnes.. 01/23/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0142 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026/ ...Synopsis... Broad troughing across the central US will continue to bring several rounds of precipitation from the Plains into portions of the Eastern US on Saturday. In addition, a cold arctic air mass will be in place across much of the CONUS. Fire concerns will remain minimal given widespread cold and wet conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Update... No changes were required for tomorrow's forecast. Please see the previous discussion below for details. ..Barnes.. 01/23/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0142 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026/ ...Synopsis... Broad troughing across the central US will continue to bring several rounds of precipitation from the Plains into portions of the Eastern US on Saturday. In addition, a cold arctic air mass will be in place across much of the CONUS. Fire concerns will remain minimal given widespread cold and wet conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Update... No changes were required for tomorrow's forecast. Please see the previous discussion below for details. ..Barnes.. 01/23/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0142 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026/ ...Synopsis... Broad troughing across the central US will continue to bring several rounds of precipitation from the Plains into portions of the Eastern US on Saturday. In addition, a cold arctic air mass will be in place across much of the CONUS. Fire concerns will remain minimal given widespread cold and wet conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Update... No changes were required for tomorrow's forecast. Please see the previous discussion below for details. ..Barnes.. 01/23/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0142 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026/ ...Synopsis... Broad troughing across the central US will continue to bring several rounds of precipitation from the Plains into portions of the Eastern US on Saturday. In addition, a cold arctic air mass will be in place across much of the CONUS. Fire concerns will remain minimal given widespread cold and wet conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Update... No changes were required for tomorrow's forecast. Please see the previous discussion below for details. ..Barnes.. 01/23/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0142 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026/ ...Synopsis... Broad troughing across the central US will continue to bring several rounds of precipitation from the Plains into portions of the Eastern US on Saturday. In addition, a cold arctic air mass will be in place across much of the CONUS. Fire concerns will remain minimal given widespread cold and wet conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Update... No changes were required for tomorrow's forecast. Please see the previous discussion below for details. ..Barnes.. 01/23/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0142 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026/ ...Synopsis... Broad troughing across the central US will continue to bring several rounds of precipitation from the Plains into portions of the Eastern US on Saturday. In addition, a cold arctic air mass will be in place across much of the CONUS. Fire concerns will remain minimal given widespread cold and wet conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Update... No changes were required for tomorrow's forecast. Please see the previous discussion below for details. ..Barnes.. 01/23/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0142 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026/ ...Synopsis... Broad troughing across the central US will continue to bring several rounds of precipitation from the Plains into portions of the Eastern US on Saturday. In addition, a cold arctic air mass will be in place across much of the CONUS. Fire concerns will remain minimal given widespread cold and wet conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
SPC Jan 23, 2026 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered weak thunderstorm activity is likely today into tonight across the Texas Big Bend region into central Texas. ...20Z Update... No changes to the ongoing forecast are needed. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Wendt.. 01/23/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0958 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026/ A large upper trough will deepen over the Rockies and High Plains this evening, with large-scale forcing for ascent spreading across much of TX/OK. Forecast soundings in this area show sufficiently steep mid-level lapse rates and MUCAPE > 0 to support occasional thunderstorms. This includes parts of western north TX and southern OK where freezing p-types are anticipated. Over south TX, the main cold front will be surging southward into a moist air mass with dewpoints in the 60s. Several model solutions suggest the development of a few thunderstorms along the front - mainly after dark. While a brief tornado or strong wind gust cannot be ruled out, rapid undercutting of the front is expected to limit the overall severe threat so no probabilities have been added. Read more
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered weak thunderstorm activity is likely today into tonight across the Texas Big Bend region into central Texas. ...20Z Update... No changes to the ongoing forecast are needed. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Wendt.. 01/23/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0958 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026/ A large upper trough will deepen over the Rockies and High Plains this evening, with large-scale forcing for ascent spreading across much of TX/OK. Forecast soundings in this area show sufficiently steep mid-level lapse rates and MUCAPE > 0 to support occasional thunderstorms. This includes parts of western north TX and southern OK where freezing p-types are anticipated. Over south TX, the main cold front will be surging southward into a moist air mass with dewpoints in the 60s. Several model solutions suggest the development of a few thunderstorms along the front - mainly after dark. While a brief tornado or strong wind gust cannot be ruled out, rapid undercutting of the front is expected to limit the overall severe threat so no probabilities have been added. Read more
SPC Jan 23, 2026 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered weak thunderstorm activity is likely today into tonight across the Texas Big Bend region into central Texas. ...20Z Update... No changes to the ongoing forecast are needed. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Wendt.. 01/23/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0958 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026/ A large upper trough will deepen over the Rockies and High Plains this evening, with large-scale forcing for ascent spreading across much of TX/OK. Forecast soundings in this area show sufficiently steep mid-level lapse rates and MUCAPE > 0 to support occasional thunderstorms. This includes parts of western north TX and southern OK where freezing p-types are anticipated. Over south TX, the main cold front will be surging southward into a moist air mass with dewpoints in the 60s. Several model solutions suggest the development of a few thunderstorms along the front - mainly after dark. While a brief tornado or strong wind gust cannot be ruled out, rapid undercutting of the front is expected to limit the overall severe threat so no probabilities have been added. Read more
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered weak thunderstorm activity is likely today into tonight across the Texas Big Bend region into central Texas. ...20Z Update... No changes to the ongoing forecast are needed. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Wendt.. 01/23/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0958 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026/ A large upper trough will deepen over the Rockies and High Plains this evening, with large-scale forcing for ascent spreading across much of TX/OK. Forecast soundings in this area show sufficiently steep mid-level lapse rates and MUCAPE > 0 to support occasional thunderstorms. This includes parts of western north TX and southern OK where freezing p-types are anticipated. Over south TX, the main cold front will be surging southward into a moist air mass with dewpoints in the 60s. Several model solutions suggest the development of a few thunderstorms along the front - mainly after dark. While a brief tornado or strong wind gust cannot be ruled out, rapid undercutting of the front is expected to limit the overall severe threat so no probabilities have been added. Read more
