SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 AM CST Thu Jan 15 2026 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe thunderstorms are expected on Saturday. A broad upper trough will prevail across most of the CONUS on Saturday, with dry/stable conditions inhibiting thunderstorms in most areas. A few afternoon storms are possible over south FL, but weak CAPE and limited vertical shear should preclude severe storms. ..Hart.. 01/15/2026 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 AM CST Thu Jan 15 2026 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe thunderstorms are expected on Saturday. A broad upper trough will prevail across most of the CONUS on Saturday, with dry/stable conditions inhibiting thunderstorms in most areas. A few afternoon storms are possible over south FL, but weak CAPE and limited vertical shear should preclude severe storms. ..Hart.. 01/15/2026 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 AM CST Thu Jan 15 2026 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe thunderstorms are expected on Saturday. A broad upper trough will prevail across most of the CONUS on Saturday, with dry/stable conditions inhibiting thunderstorms in most areas. A few afternoon storms are possible over south FL, but weak CAPE and limited vertical shear should preclude severe storms. ..Hart.. 01/15/2026 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 AM CST Thu Jan 15 2026 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe thunderstorms are expected on Saturday. A broad upper trough will prevail across most of the CONUS on Saturday, with dry/stable conditions inhibiting thunderstorms in most areas. A few afternoon storms are possible over south FL, but weak CAPE and limited vertical shear should preclude severe storms. ..Hart.. 01/15/2026 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 AM CST Thu Jan 15 2026 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe thunderstorms are expected on Saturday. A broad upper trough will prevail across most of the CONUS on Saturday, with dry/stable conditions inhibiting thunderstorms in most areas. A few afternoon storms are possible over south FL, but weak CAPE and limited vertical shear should preclude severe storms. ..Hart.. 01/15/2026 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 PM CST Wed Jan 14 2026 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States on Friday. ...Synopsis... A series of disturbances will move cyclonically through a longwave mid-level trough over eastern North America. Farther west, a mid-level anticyclone will be stationary to the west of the Pacific Northwest coast. A surface ridge will extend southward along the spine of the Rockies/High Plains and cool/stable conditions will prove hostile for thunderstorm development across the Lower 48 states on Friday. ..Smith.. 01/15/2026 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 PM CST Wed Jan 14 2026 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States on Friday. ...Synopsis... A series of disturbances will move cyclonically through a longwave mid-level trough over eastern North America. Farther west, a mid-level anticyclone will be stationary to the west of the Pacific Northwest coast. A surface ridge will extend southward along the spine of the Rockies/High Plains and cool/stable conditions will prove hostile for thunderstorm development across the Lower 48 states on Friday. ..Smith.. 01/15/2026 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 PM CST Wed Jan 14 2026 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States on Friday. ...Synopsis... A series of disturbances will move cyclonically through a longwave mid-level trough over eastern North America. Farther west, a mid-level anticyclone will be stationary to the west of the Pacific Northwest coast. A surface ridge will extend southward along the spine of the Rockies/High Plains and cool/stable conditions will prove hostile for thunderstorm development across the Lower 48 states on Friday. ..Smith.. 01/15/2026 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 PM CST Wed Jan 14 2026 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States on Friday. ...Synopsis... A series of disturbances will move cyclonically through a longwave mid-level trough over eastern North America. Farther west, a mid-level anticyclone will be stationary to the west of the Pacific Northwest coast. A surface ridge will extend southward along the spine of the Rockies/High Plains and cool/stable conditions will prove hostile for thunderstorm development across the Lower 48 states on Friday. ..Smith.. 01/15/2026 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 PM CST Wed Jan 14 2026 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast. ...South Florida... Midlevel short-wave trough is digging southeast across the northern Gulf basin late this evening. As this feature digs toward the FL Peninsula, strong cold front will surge to near the southern tip of the Peninsula by 18z, then across the straights by late afternoon. Latest radar data exhibits shallow convection across the eastern Gulf basin, but minimal lighting has been noted with this activity. HREF guidance suggests scattered convection will develop along the boundary as it surges southeast, but forecast instability is not particularly noteworthy, and lapse rates will remain poor. Earlier thoughts regarding the prospect for thunderstorms continues. While a flash of lightning can not be ruled out, most updrafts will remain too weak/shallow to justify a 10 percent probability of thunder during the day1 period. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 01/15/2026 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 PM CST Wed Jan 14 2026 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast. ...South Florida... Midlevel short-wave trough is digging southeast across the northern Gulf basin late this evening. As this feature digs toward the FL Peninsula, strong cold front will surge to near the southern tip of the Peninsula by 18z, then across the straights by late afternoon. Latest radar data exhibits shallow convection across the eastern Gulf basin, but minimal lighting has been noted with this activity. HREF guidance suggests scattered convection will develop along the boundary as it surges southeast, but forecast instability is not particularly noteworthy, and lapse rates will remain poor. Earlier thoughts regarding the prospect for thunderstorms continues. While a flash of lightning can not be ruled out, most updrafts will remain too weak/shallow to justify a 10 percent probability of thunder during the day1 period. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 01/15/2026 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 PM CST Wed Jan 14 2026 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast. ...South Florida... Midlevel short-wave trough is digging southeast across the northern Gulf basin late this evening. As this feature digs toward the FL Peninsula, strong cold front will surge to near the southern tip of the Peninsula by 18z, then across the straights by late afternoon. Latest radar data exhibits shallow convection across the eastern Gulf basin, but minimal lighting has been noted with this activity. HREF guidance suggests scattered convection will develop along the boundary as it surges southeast, but forecast instability is not particularly noteworthy, and lapse rates will remain poor. Earlier thoughts regarding the prospect for thunderstorms continues. While a flash of lightning can not be ruled out, most updrafts will remain too weak/shallow to justify a 10 percent probability of thunder during the day1 period. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 01/15/2026 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 PM CST Wed Jan 14 2026 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast. ...South Florida... Midlevel short-wave trough is digging southeast across the northern Gulf basin late this evening. As this feature digs toward the FL Peninsula, strong cold front will surge to near the southern tip of the Peninsula by 18z, then across the straights by late afternoon. Latest radar data exhibits shallow convection across the eastern Gulf basin, but minimal lighting has been noted with this activity. HREF guidance suggests scattered convection will develop along the boundary as it surges southeast, but forecast instability is not particularly noteworthy, and lapse rates will remain poor. Earlier thoughts regarding the prospect for thunderstorms continues. While a flash of lightning can not be ruled out, most updrafts will remain too weak/shallow to justify a 10 percent probability of thunder during the day1 period. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 01/15/2026 Read more

MD 0022 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR NORTHERN INDIANA AND FAR SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN
Mesoscale Discussion 0022 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0501 PM CST Wed Jan 14 2026 Areas affected...Northern Indiana and far southwest Lower Michigan Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 142301Z - 150500Z SUMMARY...A lake effect snow band will likely support heavy snowfall rates in excess of 2 inches/hour across portions of northern Indiana through the evening and into the overnight hours. DISCUSSION...A lake effect snow band has been steadily organizing over the past couple of hours across far southwest lower MI and northern/northwest IN amid strengthening cold advection on the backside of a passing upper disturbance. Surface observations under the band report quarter-mile visibility with heavy snowfall, and these observations are supported by live web cams in the South Bend, IN area that show significant visibility reductions indicative of heavy snowfall rates. Recent surface observations and 925 mb analyses show a subtle confluence axis established across southeastern Lake Michigan that is forecast to persist and shift to the southwest over the next several hours. Latest forecast soundings depict 6.5 C/km lapse rates and saturated profiles from the surface through roughly 3 km. Additional deepening/saturation of this layer possible as ascent within the left-exit region of an approaching upper jet (currently noted upstream across portions of MN/WI in water-vapor imagery) overspreads the region heading into the evening/overnight hours. Maintenance of a favorable low to mid-level thermodynamic profile, steady low-level confluence, and relatively warm water temperatures (approximately 35-40 F per recent analyses) along the southeastern shore of Lake MI should all contribute to robust lake effect snow band capable of heavy snowfall rates potentially exceeding 2 inch/hour. Strong winds within the lowest few kilometers, gusting to 30-40 mph at times, may support periods of blizzard conditions under the band. ..Moore.. 01/14/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...IWX...LOT... LAT...LON 41638720 41698702 41828675 42008656 42218640 42118627 41518579 41338576 41208584 41038613 40978632 40908658 40908680 40918701 40988722 41098723 41638720 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0626 PM CST Wed Jan 14 2026 Valid 150100Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the southwestern Florida coast late tonight. ...01z Update... Deep upper trough is settling across the eastern CONUS early this evening. As heights fall across the northern Gulf basin, surface front is forecast to surge across the central FL Peninsula by 12z. Just ahead of this boundary, low-level moistening is expected into the western portions of the southern Peninsula such that weak buoyancy is expected to develop. Forecast soundings continue to suggest isolated thunderstorms could develop late tonight, but most of this activity should remain offshore. ..Darrow.. 01/15/2026 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0626 PM CST Wed Jan 14 2026 Valid 150100Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the southwestern Florida coast late tonight. ...01z Update... Deep upper trough is settling across the eastern CONUS early this evening. As heights fall across the northern Gulf basin, surface front is forecast to surge across the central FL Peninsula by 12z. Just ahead of this boundary, low-level moistening is expected into the western portions of the southern Peninsula such that weak buoyancy is expected to develop. Forecast soundings continue to suggest isolated thunderstorms could develop late tonight, but most of this activity should remain offshore. ..Darrow.. 01/15/2026 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0626 PM CST Wed Jan 14 2026 Valid 150100Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the southwestern Florida coast late tonight. ...01z Update... Deep upper trough is settling across the eastern CONUS early this evening. As heights fall across the northern Gulf basin, surface front is forecast to surge across the central FL Peninsula by 12z. Just ahead of this boundary, low-level moistening is expected into the western portions of the southern Peninsula such that weak buoyancy is expected to develop. Forecast soundings continue to suggest isolated thunderstorms could develop late tonight, but most of this activity should remain offshore. ..Darrow.. 01/15/2026 Read more

No watches are valid as of Wed Jan 14 23:03:02 UTC 2026.

MD 0022 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR NORTHERN INDIANA AND FAR SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN
Mesoscale Discussion 0022 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0501 PM CST Wed Jan 14 2026 Areas affected...Northern Indiana and far southwest Lower Michigan Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 142301Z - 150500Z SUMMARY...A lake effect snow band will likely support heavy snowfall rates in excess of 2 inches/hour across portions of northern Indiana through the evening and into the overnight hours. DISCUSSION...A lake effect snow band has been steadily organizing over the past couple of hours across far southwest lower MI and northern/northwest IN amid strengthening cold advection on the backside of a passing upper disturbance. Surface observations under the band report quarter-mile visibility with heavy snowfall, and these observations are supported by live web cams in the South Bend, IN area that show significant visibility reductions indicative of heavy snowfall rates. Recent surface observations and 925 mb analyses show a subtle confluence axis established across southeastern Lake Michigan that is forecast to persist and shift to the southwest over the next several hours. Latest forecast soundings depict 6.5 C/km lapse rates and saturated profiles from the surface through roughly 3 km. Additional deepening/saturation of this layer possible as ascent within the left-exit region of an approaching upper jet (currently noted upstream across portions of MN/WI in water-vapor imagery) overspreads the region heading into the evening/overnight hours. Maintenance of a favorable low to mid-level thermodynamic profile, steady low-level confluence, and relatively warm water temperatures (approximately 35-40 F per recent analyses) along the southeastern shore of Lake MI should all contribute to robust lake effect snow band capable of heavy snowfall rates potentially exceeding 2 inch/hour. Strong winds within the lowest few kilometers, gusting to 30-40 mph at times, may support periods of blizzard conditions under the band. ..Moore.. 01/14/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...IWX...LOT... LAT...LON 41638720 41698702 41828675 42008656 42218640 42118627 41518579 41338576 41208584 41038613 40978632 40908658 40908680 40918701 40988722 41098723 41638720 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Jan 14 22:18:02 UTC 2026.