SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2026 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. Dry, occasionally breezy northwesterly surface flow is still expected across the Florida Peninsula, which may promote brief periods of localized wildfire-spread potential. Still, the surface winds appear too weak for the inclusion of Elevated highlights at this time, though this may change in future outlooks if a stronger surface wind field becomes evident. ..Squitieri.. 01/27/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2026/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low on D2/Wednesday. A cool and dry air mass will remain in place across much of the CONUS, with extensive snow pack reaching from the Southern Plains into portions of the Northeast. Overall, the recent cold and wet pattern has improved status of fuels in many areas. Some dry conditions will continue across southern Florida but winds should be lighter, precluding the need to include any areas. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1042 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2026 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A series of upper shortwave troughs within broader northwesterly flow aloft will move across the Southeast and from the Rockies into the Plains on Wednesday. Lee cyclogenesis is expected to develop over the central High Plains in response to the ejecting upper shortwave trough, with the low eventually migrating toward OK. Southerly flow will increase across the southern Plains in response, but surface high pressure over TX into the Southeast will prevent modified Gulf moisture from returning northward. As a result, a cold, dry, and stable airmass will remain over much of the CONUS, precluding thunderstorm activity. ..Leitman.. 01/27/2026 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1042 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2026 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A series of upper shortwave troughs within broader northwesterly flow aloft will move across the Southeast and from the Rockies into the Plains on Wednesday. Lee cyclogenesis is expected to develop over the central High Plains in response to the ejecting upper shortwave trough, with the low eventually migrating toward OK. Southerly flow will increase across the southern Plains in response, but surface high pressure over TX into the Southeast will prevent modified Gulf moisture from returning northward. As a result, a cold, dry, and stable airmass will remain over much of the CONUS, precluding thunderstorm activity. ..Leitman.. 01/27/2026 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1042 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2026 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A series of upper shortwave troughs within broader northwesterly flow aloft will move across the Southeast and from the Rockies into the Plains on Wednesday. Lee cyclogenesis is expected to develop over the central High Plains in response to the ejecting upper shortwave trough, with the low eventually migrating toward OK. Southerly flow will increase across the southern Plains in response, but surface high pressure over TX into the Southeast will prevent modified Gulf moisture from returning northward. As a result, a cold, dry, and stable airmass will remain over much of the CONUS, precluding thunderstorm activity. ..Leitman.. 01/27/2026 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1042 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2026 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A series of upper shortwave troughs within broader northwesterly flow aloft will move across the Southeast and from the Rockies into the Plains on Wednesday. Lee cyclogenesis is expected to develop over the central High Plains in response to the ejecting upper shortwave trough, with the low eventually migrating toward OK. Southerly flow will increase across the southern Plains in response, but surface high pressure over TX into the Southeast will prevent modified Gulf moisture from returning northward. As a result, a cold, dry, and stable airmass will remain over much of the CONUS, precluding thunderstorm activity. ..Leitman.. 01/27/2026 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1042 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2026 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A series of upper shortwave troughs within broader northwesterly flow aloft will move across the Southeast and from the Rockies into the Plains on Wednesday. Lee cyclogenesis is expected to develop over the central High Plains in response to the ejecting upper shortwave trough, with the low eventually migrating toward OK. Southerly flow will increase across the southern Plains in response, but surface high pressure over TX into the Southeast will prevent modified Gulf moisture from returning northward. As a result, a cold, dry, and stable airmass will remain over much of the CONUS, precluding thunderstorm activity. ..Leitman.. 01/27/2026 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1006 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2026 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 01/27/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0149 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2026/ ...Synopsis... Dry post-frontal northwesterly flow across the southern Florida Peninsula will bring a period of Elevated fire concerns today. Relative humidity reductions to around 20-25% will overlap with sustained northwesterly flow around 10-15 mph. Fuels in this region are critically dry with ongoing drought conditions. The frontal passage did bring some rainfall across portions of the peninsula but little to no rainfall occurred across the far southern west coast, where the Elevated was maintained with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1006 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2026 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 01/27/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0149 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2026/ ...Synopsis... Dry post-frontal northwesterly flow across the southern Florida Peninsula will bring a period of Elevated fire concerns today. Relative humidity reductions to around 20-25% will overlap with sustained northwesterly flow around 10-15 mph. Fuels in this region are critically dry with ongoing drought conditions. The frontal passage did bring some rainfall across portions of the peninsula but little to no rainfall occurred across the far southern west coast, where the Elevated was maintained with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1006 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2026 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 01/27/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0149 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2026/ ...Synopsis... Dry post-frontal northwesterly flow across the southern Florida Peninsula will bring a period of Elevated fire concerns today. Relative humidity reductions to around 20-25% will overlap with sustained northwesterly flow around 10-15 mph. Fuels in this region are critically dry with ongoing drought conditions. The frontal passage did bring some rainfall across portions of the peninsula but little to no rainfall occurred across the far southern west coast, where the Elevated was maintained with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1006 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2026 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 01/27/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0149 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2026/ ...Synopsis... Dry post-frontal northwesterly flow across the southern Florida Peninsula will bring a period of Elevated fire concerns today. Relative humidity reductions to around 20-25% will overlap with sustained northwesterly flow around 10-15 mph. Fuels in this region are critically dry with ongoing drought conditions. The frontal passage did bring some rainfall across portions of the peninsula but little to no rainfall occurred across the far southern west coast, where the Elevated was maintained with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1006 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2026 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 01/27/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0149 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2026/ ...Synopsis... Dry post-frontal northwesterly flow across the southern Florida Peninsula will bring a period of Elevated fire concerns today. Relative humidity reductions to around 20-25% will overlap with sustained northwesterly flow around 10-15 mph. Fuels in this region are critically dry with ongoing drought conditions. The frontal passage did bring some rainfall across portions of the peninsula but little to no rainfall occurred across the far southern west coast, where the Elevated was maintained with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1000 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2026 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may occur this evening and tonight across parts of northern California and coastal southwest Oregon. Severe thunderstorms are not forecast. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Persistent mid/upper-level troughing over the central/eastern CONUS and cold/offshore low-level trajectories will keep thunderstorm potential very low today, with one possible exception. A mid-level shortwave trough will move quickly eastward over the eastern Pacific today, and eventually overspread the Pacific Northwest this evening/tonight. Cool temperatures aloft (around -24 to -28C at 500 mb) should support modest MUCAPE and the potential for isolated lightning flashes with a loosely organized band of convection that is expected to approach the coast of northern CA and southwest OR mainly after 28/00Z. But with limited low-level moisture and overall weak instability, severe thunderstorms are not forecast. ..Gleason/Kerr.. 01/27/2026 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1000 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2026 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may occur this evening and tonight across parts of northern California and coastal southwest Oregon. Severe thunderstorms are not forecast. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Persistent mid/upper-level troughing over the central/eastern CONUS and cold/offshore low-level trajectories will keep thunderstorm potential very low today, with one possible exception. A mid-level shortwave trough will move quickly eastward over the eastern Pacific today, and eventually overspread the Pacific Northwest this evening/tonight. Cool temperatures aloft (around -24 to -28C at 500 mb) should support modest MUCAPE and the potential for isolated lightning flashes with a loosely organized band of convection that is expected to approach the coast of northern CA and southwest OR mainly after 28/00Z. But with limited low-level moisture and overall weak instability, severe thunderstorms are not forecast. ..Gleason/Kerr.. 01/27/2026 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1000 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2026 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may occur this evening and tonight across parts of northern California and coastal southwest Oregon. Severe thunderstorms are not forecast. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Persistent mid/upper-level troughing over the central/eastern CONUS and cold/offshore low-level trajectories will keep thunderstorm potential very low today, with one possible exception. A mid-level shortwave trough will move quickly eastward over the eastern Pacific today, and eventually overspread the Pacific Northwest this evening/tonight. Cool temperatures aloft (around -24 to -28C at 500 mb) should support modest MUCAPE and the potential for isolated lightning flashes with a loosely organized band of convection that is expected to approach the coast of northern CA and southwest OR mainly after 28/00Z. But with limited low-level moisture and overall weak instability, severe thunderstorms are not forecast. ..Gleason/Kerr.. 01/27/2026 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1000 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2026 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may occur this evening and tonight across parts of northern California and coastal southwest Oregon. Severe thunderstorms are not forecast. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Persistent mid/upper-level troughing over the central/eastern CONUS and cold/offshore low-level trajectories will keep thunderstorm potential very low today, with one possible exception. A mid-level shortwave trough will move quickly eastward over the eastern Pacific today, and eventually overspread the Pacific Northwest this evening/tonight. Cool temperatures aloft (around -24 to -28C at 500 mb) should support modest MUCAPE and the potential for isolated lightning flashes with a loosely organized band of convection that is expected to approach the coast of northern CA and southwest OR mainly after 28/00Z. But with limited low-level moisture and overall weak instability, severe thunderstorms are not forecast. ..Gleason/Kerr.. 01/27/2026 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1000 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2026 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may occur this evening and tonight across parts of northern California and coastal southwest Oregon. Severe thunderstorms are not forecast. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Persistent mid/upper-level troughing over the central/eastern CONUS and cold/offshore low-level trajectories will keep thunderstorm potential very low today, with one possible exception. A mid-level shortwave trough will move quickly eastward over the eastern Pacific today, and eventually overspread the Pacific Northwest this evening/tonight. Cool temperatures aloft (around -24 to -28C at 500 mb) should support modest MUCAPE and the potential for isolated lightning flashes with a loosely organized band of convection that is expected to approach the coast of northern CA and southwest OR mainly after 28/00Z. But with limited low-level moisture and overall weak instability, severe thunderstorms are not forecast. ..Gleason/Kerr.. 01/27/2026 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0642 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2026 Valid 271300Z - 281200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are unlikely today. ...Synopsis... Several shortwave troughs are forecast to progress eastward today within the cyclonic flow aloft covering much of the central and eastern CONUS. At the same time, upper ridging will move eastward across the western CONUS to the Intermountain West and a strong shortwave trough will move across the Pacific Northwest. This evolution will lead to a modestly amplified trough/ridge/trough pattern over the CONUS by early tomorrow. Even with this relatively progressive pattern, the extensive and cold airmass in place over much of the CONUS will promote offshore trajectories and cold/stable sensible weather. Strongest convection today is anticipated with a frontal band attendant to the Pacific Northwest shortwave trough. However, this convection will still be too shallow to produce lightning. ..Mosier/Broyles.. 01/27/2026 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0642 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2026 Valid 271300Z - 281200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are unlikely today. ...Synopsis... Several shortwave troughs are forecast to progress eastward today within the cyclonic flow aloft covering much of the central and eastern CONUS. At the same time, upper ridging will move eastward across the western CONUS to the Intermountain West and a strong shortwave trough will move across the Pacific Northwest. This evolution will lead to a modestly amplified trough/ridge/trough pattern over the CONUS by early tomorrow. Even with this relatively progressive pattern, the extensive and cold airmass in place over much of the CONUS will promote offshore trajectories and cold/stable sensible weather. Strongest convection today is anticipated with a frontal band attendant to the Pacific Northwest shortwave trough. However, this convection will still be too shallow to produce lightning. ..Mosier/Broyles.. 01/27/2026 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0642 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2026 Valid 271300Z - 281200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are unlikely today. ...Synopsis... Several shortwave troughs are forecast to progress eastward today within the cyclonic flow aloft covering much of the central and eastern CONUS. At the same time, upper ridging will move eastward across the western CONUS to the Intermountain West and a strong shortwave trough will move across the Pacific Northwest. This evolution will lead to a modestly amplified trough/ridge/trough pattern over the CONUS by early tomorrow. Even with this relatively progressive pattern, the extensive and cold airmass in place over much of the CONUS will promote offshore trajectories and cold/stable sensible weather. Strongest convection today is anticipated with a frontal band attendant to the Pacific Northwest shortwave trough. However, this convection will still be too shallow to produce lightning. ..Mosier/Broyles.. 01/27/2026 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0642 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2026 Valid 271300Z - 281200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are unlikely today. ...Synopsis... Several shortwave troughs are forecast to progress eastward today within the cyclonic flow aloft covering much of the central and eastern CONUS. At the same time, upper ridging will move eastward across the western CONUS to the Intermountain West and a strong shortwave trough will move across the Pacific Northwest. This evolution will lead to a modestly amplified trough/ridge/trough pattern over the CONUS by early tomorrow. Even with this relatively progressive pattern, the extensive and cold airmass in place over much of the CONUS will promote offshore trajectories and cold/stable sensible weather. Strongest convection today is anticipated with a frontal band attendant to the Pacific Northwest shortwave trough. However, this convection will still be too shallow to produce lightning. ..Mosier/Broyles.. 01/27/2026 Read more