From: National Weather Service, Fort Worth
Date: Monday, 3 Feb 2011 9:55 CST

Good morning,

We have low clouds, fog, drizzle, and rain this morning, but later today there will be the potential for strong thunderstorms across much of North Texas. A short PDF presentation has been attached to depict the areas that could be impacted later today.

OVERVIEW

A strong storm system is moving through the Rocky Mountain States today, and is responsible for the areas of low clouds, drizzle, and beneficial rainfall across portions of North Texas this morning. As of this morning, a tornado watch is in effect for areas to the north and west, covering parts of Oklahoma and areas beween Vernon and Childress. As the main storm system moves east, we are expecting a line of thunderstorms to develop during late afternoon and evening hours. Rainfall will continue until then, with the bulk of the severe weather potential occuring this evening. We will have plenty of low and mid level moisture and lift to produce thunderstorms. The limiting factors could be the amount of available wind shear and instability.

AREA

Nearly all of North Texas will see the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms. The highest rainfall amounts however, are likely to be east of I-35/I-35E.

IMPACTS

The primary impact from any thunderstorm that develops today will be large hail and damaging winds. A tornado threat exists as well, especially in any storm able to develop discretely during the late afternoon, or along the apex of a bookend vortex of a bow echo. Hail to the size of ping pong balls, and winds in excess of 60 mph are possible, especially if the storms develop into a squall line. Low lying areas are still saturated from last week's rainfall, and minor or nuisance flooding is possible in the traditionally flood prone areas.

TIMING

The rain will be off and on through the morning and early afternoon, but the bulk of the strong to severe storms will be between 3PM and Midnight.

CONFIDENCE

There is low confidence in this forecast, as the low clouds and low wind shear may preclude much of anything to happen, other than rainfall. However, any thunderstorm that does develop today, especially during the late afternoon or early evening hours, wil have the potential to produce severe weather.

BOTTOM LINE

Emergency Managers, elected officials, and public safety officers should closely monitor the National Weather Service forecasts, outlooks, and graphics for further refinement of the weather situation today. Local spotter groups have the potential for being activated during the afternoon or evening hours. There will be another chance of rainfall by Sunday, but the severe weather potential appears to be confined to today and tonight.

USEFUL WEBSITES

NWS Fort Worth

NWS Hazards

NWS Graphical Warnings

NWS Severe Weather Emergency Management Page

NWS Storm Spotter Notifications/Activations Page

Fort Worth Radar

Mark
Warning & Coordination Meteorologist
National Weather Service - Fort Worth /Dallas
817.831.1157 x 223